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Dollar Down After Fed; Euro, Risk Pairs, Metals Rally

Posted by Liviu on January 26, 2012 – 8:09AM GMT - 16366Leave your thoughts2012-01-26+08%3A09%3A49Liviu

Believe those who are seeking the truth. Doubt those who find it. ~ Andre Gide

Good morning. Dollar’s decline continues as Fed says interest rates are likely to stay near zero through late 2014. Therefore, euro, risk pairs and metals rallied big-time – as seen on the charts below. Important events in today’s FX Calendar are: Core Durable Goods, Initial Jobless Claims and New Home Sales

USD Index

Now that support around 79.50 has been breached and the buck is testing session lows, it’s not a good idea to buy dips but rather consider new selling opportunities with stops above former support zone and/or yesterday’s high.

USD Index Chart Daily 1-26-2012

EURUSD

The breakout scenario mentioned yesterday occurred after Fed’s rate decision and now it’s time to expect former resistance at 1.3050 to provide support on dips.

EURUSD Chart 4hrs 1-26-2012

On the daily chart there’s a long tailed candlestick formed yesterday, suggesting that recovery is still strong and pullbacks are finding decent bids.

EURUSD Chart Daily 1-26-2012

Silver

Silver provides another nice breakout setup so it’s best to keep an eye on this resistance around 33 which is being tested at time of writing

Silver Chart Daily 1-26-2012

AUDJPY

As I stated before, AUDJPY is one of the main pairs EURUSD is following right now. 83 is getting closer, acting like a magnet, so no matter what you’re planning to do – be that selling on strength or buying more on the potential breakout – it’s best to wait until this level will be tested, probably a matter of hours.

AUDJPY Chart Daily 1-26-2012

EURGBP

EURGBP is back at resistance zone after a short visit to the downside where it found bids yesterday. As said two days ago, I think it would be a good bet to buy on the potential breakout higher – targeting .8500/25

EURGBP Chart Daily 1-26-2012

AUDNZD

AUD is facing resistance around 1.300 so it is still a good idea to keep an eye on 1.2900 which has a good chance to break soon

AUDNZD Chart 4hrs 1-26-2012

have a great day!

- Continue reading: Dollar Down After Fed; Euro, Risk Pairs, Metals Rally

Euro Testing Resistance, Dollar Down Ahead of FOMC

Posted by Liviu on January 25, 2012 – 8:08AM GMT - 163521 Comment2012-01-25+08%3A08%3A31Liviu

The safest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it in your pocket. ~ Kin Hubbard

Good morning. Euro holds onto gains fairly well and managed to recover after dropping to as low as $1.2953 yesterday, which turned out to be a corrective move. Dollar continues to push on support around 79.50 which should provide clues of further weakness towards 77 if breached, eventually. Today’s economic schedule is quite busy and there are some key events such as: German Ifo, Draghi’s Speech, Fed Interest Rate Decision and FOMC Statement

USD Index

So we’re looking at a rather classic pattern of resistance becoming pivotal support, being tested several times. While it holds, we can say that the downward movement is corrective but this is the 3rd day now and there’s no strong reversal candle to be seen around these levels, and that pops up a big warning sign suggesting that the decline ain’t over yet.

US Dollar Chart Daily 1-25-2012

EURUSD

As most short-term and intraday charts suggest these days, euro’s recovery is quite strong mainly due to mass short-covering and the positive correlation to more risk-sensitive instruments such as AUD.

EURUSD Chart Hourly 1-25-2012

On the daily chart below we can see that a resistance layer formed by recent highs of December’s second half is about to be tested as price is approaching 1.3050. This is a potential breakout scenario to consider, until potential signs of a resuming decline will become obvious. For now I remain bullish on EURUSD (short-term) but not because of EUR but because of other/stronger instruments which I’m expecting to continue appreciating.

EURUSD Chart Daily 1-25-2012

Silver

Silver holds onto strength consolidating below 32.50-33 interim resistance, which I believe to be the next breakout zone to keep an eye on. (more…)

- Continue reading: Euro Testing Resistance, Dollar Down Ahead of FOMC

Dollar at Support Zone, Euro Continues Recovery

Posted by Liviu on January 24, 2012 – 7:54AM GMT - 163376 Comments2012-01-24+07%3A54%3A10Liviu

We don’t see things as they are, we see things as we are. ~ Anais Nin

Good morning. Dollar’s decline continues as euro just popped through $1.300 yesterday, recovering from early bids around $1.2900.

USD Index

As seen in the daily chart below, key support level formed by the horizontal line which was a temporary top is now being tested. If this level fails, then we’ll probably see bids tested in the 77-78 range soon. So far there’s no sign to suggest that this potential correction is over.

USD Index Chart Daily 1-24-2012

EURUSD

Recovery is very strong as there are many shorts being covered. Yesterday’s test of support zone around 1.2900 was indeed corrective, as most the poll responders expected. Next upside barrier to keep an eye on is at 1.31500 – not really far from here.

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 1-24-2012

Silver

Silver maintains a bid tone climbing towards 33 where next resistance is seen. In case of an intraday pullback, 31.50 is a level which bulls probably want to defend. Potential breach of 33 in the coming days should provide yet another buying opportunity (more…)

- Continue reading: Dollar at Support Zone, Euro Continues Recovery

Euro Starts the Week Lower, Testing Support Zone

Posted by Liviu on January 23, 2012 – 8:08AM GMT - 163231 Comment2012-01-23+08%3A08%3A15Liviu

It’s human nature to find patterns where there are none and to find skill where luck is a more likely – William Bernstein

Good morning. Euro opened lower this week, erasing most of Thursday’s gains, therefore dollar index found support at 80:

USD Index

USD Index Chart Daily 1-23-2012

EURUSD

4hrs chart still looks bullish as current decline could be corrective. Next support backs the highlighted range at 1.2800, which is also the median retrace value of the entire up leg from 1.2625 to 1.2980

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 1-23-2012

According to COT data, bearish positions are printing fresh records each week:

EURUSD COT Daily 1-23-2012

Silver

It was rather clear that a breakout was underway and its target at 32.50 was reached earlier than I’ve been expecting. What’s next? well, corrections are normal after such vertical moves, so keep an eye on next support range around 31.50, if a correction is due. I remain bullish on silver, expecting more upside action. (more…)

- Continue reading: Euro Starts the Week Lower, Testing Support Zone

Euro Gains on Short-Covering and Risk-On Trade, Dollar Continues Slide

Posted by Liviu on January 20, 2012 – 8:09AM GMT - 163104 Comments2012-01-20+08%3A09%3A30Liviu

The man who has confidence in himself gains the confidence of others. ~ Hasidic Saying

Good morning. Dollar continues to fall as stocks recover, hence risk currencies, including EURUSD, are following stocks higher. Here are some of today’s interesting charts

USD Index

Support around 79.50 is in focus as dollar’s decline continues. That is probably a bottom bulls are keeping an eye on

USD Index Chart Daily 1-20-2012

EURUSD

Daily studies are slightly bullish as the euro trades above recent lower high and breached above resistance layer formed between 1.28 and 1.29. Next resistance is seen around 1.3150. I remain bearish on EUR on a medium term basis but current recovery provides some good short-term and intraday buying opportunities.

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 1-20-2012

Silver

Resistance at 30.50 has been breached, so the potential breakout mentioned yesterday is valid. Anyway, gains are still moderate as silver keeps trading in a narrow range lately, but upside remains favoured. I remain bullish on silver, expecting it to test offers in the 32.50-33 region in a week or so. (more…)

- Continue reading: Euro Gains on Short-Covering and Risk-On Trade, Dollar Continues Slide

Dollar Down After Fed; Euro, Risk Pairs, Metals Rally

Euro Testing Resistance, Dollar Down Ahead of FOMC

Dollar at Support Zone, Euro Continues Recovery

Euro Starts the Week Lower, Testing Support Zone

Euro Gains on Short-Covering and Risk-On Trade, Dollar Continues Slide

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