Weekly technical outlook, by Liviu Flesar
EURUSD
The Euro wasn’t able to breach 1.347 during the last week but the support at 1.328 was strong enough to hold under the presure of two tests.
1.328 is also the 50 fib retracement of the 1.308-1.347 move. It is quite interesting that the entire time frame since 1.328 break until now, is quite similar to the time frame of 1.308 to 1.328. In both cases we had a 50 fib. retracement which served as a strong support.
We had a double bottom formed at 1.308 before the 1.328 break and we also have a double bottom now, at 1.328.
Is this double bottom at 1.328 the clue telling us that the two frames I’ve mentioned are similar and we will see a breach at 1.346 soon ?
Attention should be payed to the 1.328 level during the next days. Subsequent floors are eyed at 1.3235, 1.318 and 1.308.
We also have a downtrend channel formed by the support trendline of 1.3325-1.328 and resistance of 1.347 thru 1.342.
A channel breakout will occur if the support level at 1.328 or 1.34 will be breached.
On the daily charts, the mid term trend is still bullish and the pair has been moving on an upward channel formed by the 1.274 thru 1.308 and 1.328/9 trendline as support and 1.304 thru 1.328 and 1.347 as resistance.
Regarding the economic events of this week, Euro could see a decline ahead of the anticipated Fed rate hike, probably breaking the major support at 1.328, facing new support in the dips of 1.32, even 1.318.
EURUSD 4 Hours chart:
EURUSD Daily chart:
USDJPY
Major support was found in the 103.7-103.9 area, also the bottom of the range 103.7-105.6 where the pair has been moving during a month.
A break at 103.7 or 105.6, on the other side, will probably give us a clue about the mid-term trend. This neutral trend has to get to an end soon.
Personally, I believe that there are more chances for a breach at 103.7, but we will see, because at the first sight, the economical events of this week are pointing to a stronger dollar.
USDJPY 4 Hours chart:
GBPUSD
Cable faces the same scenario as Eur/Usd. The support zone at 1.913 is important as the 1.328 of EURUSD and it will probably be decisive for the mid-term movement. If this level will hold, it is possible to see a rally towards 1.94.
On the other side, it is also possible to see a retracement at 1.891 which is the 50 fib. retracement of the 1.851-1.93225 move.
Resistance is eyed at 1.926 followed by 1.931. Additional gains will target 1.942 and 1.95 resistance areas.
GBPUSD 4 Hours chart:
EURJPY
Probably influenced by a mass selling on Eur/Usd, Euro was not able to breach the resistance at 140 and test 140.6 again.
Important support was triggered at 138.8-139, which is also, more or less, the 50 fib. retracement of the 137.3-140.66 move. Subsequent floors are eyed at 138 and 137.3.
The presure in the 138.8 area will be the key factor for the next few trading days.
EURJPY 4 Hours chart:
USDCAD
Strong support was found at 1.2, the pair bounced for several times on this bottom during the consolidation period after the major fall started in the 1.247 area, and it is possible to see a retracement toward 1.22 before a potential breach of the 1.2 support level.
But on the other side, it is also possible to see a breach of 1.2 without any retracement before, so, personally I think there are 50-50% chances for both scenarios.
In both cases, we have to focus our attention on the 1.2 critical level.
USDCAD 4 Hours chart:
USD/CHF
Important resistance was triggered in the 1.168 area. This levels is also in correlation with the 1.328 support of EURUSD.
We see a double top in this area, which is also corresponding with the double bottom of Eur/Usd.
We have to pay attention to any new tests here during the next days. Support is seen in the 1.1535-1.1575 area.
USD/CHF 4 Hours chart:
