Monday

a week ahead (11/23-11/27)by Liviu

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EURUSD

Today’s rebound against the buck provides a clue about a potential resume of longer term uptrend. We’ll see if the euro will manage to hold gains above the fresh breached barrier into the 1.4950 region (which is currently under minor pressure) – formed by the falling trend line coming from 1.5045 over the previous lower highs. In case of an extended pullback below 1.4950 – the 1.4850-1.4900 will eventually limit losses in order to keep the bullish structure under development. I maintain my bullish stance on euro but I’m slightly cautious due to the repeated price action hesitation against the 1.5000-1.5060 top side. As I said earlier today: it won’t be easy to break higher, but it won’t be easy to drop lower (below 1.4800/50) either, while signs of hesitation continue to rule across the board – resulting in short-lived moves in a chop-chop manner.

NZDUSD

In my previous short-term outlook, I mentioned that a pullback from .7440 will probably face solid bids around .7300, eventually lower – around .7150 – and the upside remains favored for now as the pullback has faced a solid support, indeed. The rising trend line coming from .6475 also coincided with the recent bottom, so there are some valid reasons to keep the bullish view on NZD valid. Keep an eye on the .7400 handle as a breach is needed to fully confirm that the corrective cycle has ended.

Gold seem unstoppable and continues to rally to fresh highs on a regular basis – recently exceeding the upper boundary of the uptrend channel, as seen in the chart below, and the 1130 region is expected to provide support on pullbacks within the coming days. While it continues to push higher, dollar weakness across the board is likely to continue.

Let’s take a look at current Gold and S&P500 charts: both seem to provide enough bullish clues (for now) to support the ‘weaker dollar’ scenario. The important levels to watch are: 1130 support – Gold; 1095-1100 support region – S&P500 along with the 1113 resistance.

According to last week’s poll: 48% were bearish on dollar, while 34% thought it could be the time for dollar’s recovery. Along with the 14% who were neutral, it is pretty clear why the range remained intact, but slightly bullish. :-) 
However, according to today’s poll, things are a bit different: 48% of respondents are against the dollar (again), expecting a breach above 1.5 within the coming days, and “only” 11% are bullish on dollar, and that’s a major change comparing to last week’s poll. Time to look higher, above 1.5, then?

Have a great week!