Wednesday

Daily analysis and trading strategies 09-09-09by Liviu

Share

EURUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

Upside is under renewed pressure as the euro managed to break out of its recent range which has been limited on the upside by the 1.4400-1.4450. A fresh YTD high has been reached on yesterday’s rally at 1.4535 and the euro holds steady against the dollar near the 1.4500 handle, in line with yesterday’s close price. Potential pullbacks may extend to 1.4400 where support formed by a rising trend line seen on the 4 hrs chart below is expected to provide a turning point. Else, risk of downside will intensify and the range valid until yesterday will be re-activated. Both intra-day and short term studies are positive, price action suggesting further gains towards key resistance levels which come at 1.4620 – 61.8% of the large decline from 1.6035. Above 1.4620, next upside objective is set by the December’s top at 1.4720. Current exchange rate is 1.4497 @06:03 GMT

Support: 1.4450, 1.4400, 1.4350 and 1.4250
Resistance: 1.4535/50, 1.4620 and 1.4720

Adam Kritzer of Forex Blog wrote an interesting article on current Dollar Weakness. You may find it’s a good reading, too.

GBPUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

Resistance into the 1.6400 region has been broken on yesterday’s rally, as expected, and my long position has been triggered by the hourly bar closed above 1.6400, as seen on the hourly chart attached below. It’s been a good and fast trade as this time I used a smaller objective of only 80 points (near 100% fib projection of last triangular formation), unlike my last trade on GBPUSD which missed the 110 target by a few points. Speaking of current market conditions, both intra-day and short term studies are bullish as the break above 1.6400 confirms the positive view. Resistance formed by the median retracement level of the 1.7040-1.6110 down leg at 1.6575 has limited yesterday’s rally but while the Cable holds steady above 1.6500, a rally above yesterday’s top is likely. In case 1.6575 breaks, next objective is seen at 1.6685 – 61.8% of the decline from 1.7040. In case of a pullback, watch for support into the 1.6400 region – it will probably limit losses. Current exchange rate is 1.6544 @06:03 GMT

Support: 1.6500, 1.6450 and 1.6400
Resistance: 1.6575/00, 1.6685/00 and 1.6800

I will probably get back a bit later today with an update. I wish you all an excellent day and happy trading!