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Daily analysis and trading strategies 10-15-09

EURUSD

Trading strategy: short at 1.5010, initial stop at 1.5065, objective at 1.4910. Adjust stop to breakeven on +30 pips (at 1.4980) if reached

The rise continued and the euro currently trades into a fresh multi-month high territory – near the psychological barrier 1.5, also right on the upper band of the upward trend channel seen below. Short term sentiment is highly positive since breaking out past the 1.4750-1.4800 zone. The euro will probably continue to lead against the dollar as long as potential pullbacks will face stable support within the 1.4750-1.4820 region. On the upside, which is the current favored direction, resistance starts on the 1.5000 mark which may provide some ‘panic’ if reached but it seem just a matter of (short) time until we will deal with levels above it, therefore the ‘buy on dips’ remains the most valid scenario for now. Current exchange rate is 1.4954 @06:30 GMT

Support: 1.4900, 1.4850, 1.4810/20 and 1.4770
Resistance: 1.5000, 1.5030/50 and 1.5100

EURUSD 4hrs chart 10-15-09
EURUSD 4hrs chart 10-15-09

GBPUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

Yesterday’s recovery has been rather modest, compared to Monday’s rally of 220 points which was 50 points larger than the 20 days daily average range. The higher close of yesterday suggests potential prolonged GBP gains but as long as 1.6120 is intact, a fast direction switch may come out of nowhere – apparently. Some strenuous efforts are needed on cable’s side to break above the said barrier, therefore keep an eye on it in case we get that high within the coming session – and we probably will, since it is only 30-40 points away from current trading levels. On the lower side, support starts at 1.6000, backed by 1.5900, 1.5800 and 1.5700/05. Short-term sentiment is slightly bullish but extra caution on long positions is advised until uptrend will be confirmed by a sustained break above 1.6120. Current exchange rate is 1.6086 @06:30 GMT

Support: 1.6000, 1.5900, 1.5800 and 1.5700
Resistance: 1.6120, 1.6200 and 1.6225/50

GBPUSD 4hrs chart 10-15-2009
GBPUSD 4hrs chart 10-15-2009

USDJPY

Trading strategy: stand aside

The dollar is having a hard time trying to recover above the 90 mark and continues to test bids within the 89.00-89.50 region. Both short and medium term studies are negative and no change seem likely while lacking any decent signs of a corrective cycle. A clear break above 90.65-91.25 is needed to cancel current downtrend, initiating a correction. Intra-day sentiment is bearish. Current exchange rate is 89.38 @06:30 GMT

Support: 89.00, 88.50 and 88.00
Resistance: 89.50, 90.00 and 91.00

USDJPY daily chart 10-15-2009
USDJPY daily chart 10-15-2009

Have a great day!


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