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Daily analysis and trading strategies 10-19-09

EURUSD

Trading strategy: short at 1.5020, initial stop at 1.5070, objective at 1.4920. Adjust stop to breakeven on +30 pips (at 1.4990) if reached

The support zone around 1.4840 has provided a stable reversal point so far and the upward channel formed on the 4-hrs chart, as seen below, is intact – the lower band providing support on last pullback. However, intra-day momentum is quite weak and a break above 1.4920/30 is needed to confirm uptrend resumption. Short term sentiment remains bullish as long as the euro holds above 1.4770-1.4820 and a test of 1.5000 may occur within the coming days. Upside is slightly favored for now. Current exchange rate is 1.4890 @06:03 GMT

Support: 1.4840/50, 1.4800/20 and 1.4770
Resistance: 1.4920/50, 1.4965, 1.5000 and 1.5030/50

EURUSD 4hrs chart 10-19-2009
EURUSD 4hrs chart 10-19-2009

GBPUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

Cable holds gains above the 1.6300 mark, not far below the downtrend channel’s resistance, as seen on the attached chart. A potential break above the 1.6400 mark will be an important bullish confirmation, opening the way towards 1.6700-1.7000. Both intra-day and short-term studies are bullish and no change is expected on a short-term basis as long as support around 1.6120 will limit potential retracements. Intra-day sentiment will remain positive while above 1.6285/00 – support formed by a rising trend-line on the hourly chart. Current exchange rate is 1.6308 @06:03 GMT

Support: 1.6285/00, 1.6200 and 1.6120
Resistance: 1.6400, 1.6500 and 1.6600

GBPUSD daily chart 10-19-2009
GBPUSD daily chart 10-19-2009

USDJPY

Trading strategy: stand aside

The 61.8% retracement of the 93.30-88.00 move – at 91.30 has provided a stable barrier on Friday’s test. In case of a break out, next upside objective is seen at 92.00/10 and may limit the gains for a while, triggering more selling orders. Short-term sentiment is positive but downside risk remains very high. Support starts at 90.50 backed by 90.00 and 89.00. Current exchange rate is 90.85 @06:03 GMT

Support: 90.50, 90.00 and 89.00
Resistance: 91.30/50, 92.00/10 and 92.50

USDJPY daily chart 10-19-2009
USDJPY daily chart 10-19-2009

Have a great day!



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