Tuesday

Daily analysis and trading strategies 11-03-09by Liviu

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EURUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

The euro had another chance to extend its recovery above resistance at 1.4850 on yesterday but it found solid offers ahead of it and retreated back into the mid 1.47s, following the decline in equities. Upside remains slightly favored for now but downside pressure is high as long as 1.4850 is intact. A sustained break above 1050 in S&P500 would re-establish uptrend, encouraging gains in EURUSD above 1.4850 – towards 1.49-1.50 region. Short term sentiment remains bearish but the intra-day charts are slightly positive. On the lower side, support is formed by 1.4700, backed by 1.4600 and 1.4550. Current exchange rate is 1.4776 @07:02 GMT

Support: 1.4700, 1.4650, 1.4600 and 1.4550
Resistance: 1.4850, 1.4920/50 and 1.5000

GBPUSD

Trading strategy: short at 1.6340 on break below 1.6350 (hourly bar/candle close below 1.6350), initial stop at 1.6410, objective at 1.6150. Adjust stop to breakeven on +50 pips (at 1.6290) if reached

Notable bearish signs continue to show up since the 1.6550 sell-off, price action suggesting further downside pressure. In case of extended losses, next important support is formed into the 1.6200-1.6250 region, backed by 1.6080-1.6120. Intra-day sentiment is bearish and a fragile rising trend line provides the first bottom, as seen in the chart below. A break out above 1.64450/60 is needed to resume uptrend. Current exchange rate is 1.6360 @07:02 GMT

Support: 1.6350, 1.6300, 1.6200/50 and 1.6080-1.6120
Resistance: 1.6400, 1.6450/70, 1.6500 and 1.6550

AUDUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

The RBA has raised interest rates by 25-bp to 3.50% as expected but upside action has been limited, therefore bearish pressure remains intact. Support is seen at .9000 backed by a more notable barrier at .8930 – the rising trend line seen on the daily chart below. Short term sentiment remains bearish as long as .9200 is intact. If .8930 won’t hold under the pressure of a potential re-test, then .8750 is the next stop. Current exchange rate is ..9003 @07:02 GMT

Support: .9000, .8930/50, .8800 and .8750
Resistance: .9090/00, .9200 and .9325/50

Have a great day!