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Daily analysis and trading strategies 11-04-09by Liviu

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EURUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

A look at the EURUSD chart over the last few days provides a clear image of how undecided the market is. Yesterday’s sell-off below the 1.4700 support provided the confirmation of recent fears regarding an extended correction towards mid 1.45s, but price reversed around 1.4630 – returning into the 1.4730 region where it is still conserving intra-day gains. Be aware that the 100 points recovery could be a temporary, hence ‘fake’ reversal which could be caused by yesterday’s rally in Gold which jumped to record highs at 1087 after India’s CB bought 200 tons of the yellow metal from the IMF, also increasing speculation that there may be more purchases. The ‘chop chop’ price action is likely to continue ahead of upcoming events: FOMC Interest Rate decision today, Europe and England’s Interest Rate decisions being next – tomorrow, and the last key event this week – NFP on Friday. Upside remains favored for now but downside risk is high as long as 1.4850 holds. A sustained break above 1.4850 would re-initiate the uptrend, therefore keep an eye on the said level in case of extended gains. Current exchange rate is 1.4745 @07:10 GMT

Support: 1.4700, 1.4630/50, 1.4550 and 1.4500
Resistance: 1.4800, 1.4850, 1.4900/20 and 1.5000

GBPUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

My short position on the break-down below 1.6350 has been triggered on yesterday and was good while it lasted, reaching 50 points profit before cable switched direction and rallied back into the 1.64 region, hence closing my short at break-even. Intra-day studies are providing clue of more upside gains and first resistance is seen around 1.6500 – formed by a downward trend-line coming from 1.6695. A sustained break above 1.6500 would open 1.6700 as next target. On the lower side, support starts at 1.6400, backed by 1.6300, 1.6250/70 and 1.6200. Current exchange rate is 1.6463 @07:10 GMT

Support: 1.6400, 1.6300, 1.6250/70 and 1.6200
Resistance: 1.6500, 1.6600 and 1.6700

Have a great day!