Daily analysis and trading strategies 11-06-09

Quote of the day: We cannot truly plan, because we do not understand the future – but this is not necessarily a bad news. We could plan while bearing in mind such limitations. It just takes guts. – Nassim Nicholas Taleb

EURUSD

Trading strategy: short at 1.4990, initial stop at 1.5060, objective at 1.4880. Adjust stop to breakeven on +30 pips (at 1.4960) if reached

The euro holds steady and yesterday’s range has been 30% tighter than average but the 100 points gain was just enough to close above 1.4850 which is an important bullish confirmation, hence short-term sentiment turning positive. Intra-day studies are also bullish and more upside action is likely. However, since it is Friday already I think it is not the right day to look for rallies past the 1.5000 mark – a range of 1.48-1.5 seem more likely today. Today’s Unemployment data release in the U.S. is the most important event and may cause some wild price action. The NFP is expected to print -165k while the Unemployment Rate is expected to come close to 10% – at 9.9%, increasing from last month’s 9.8%. Here is a clear image of unemployment from 2004 to present (source: Flowingdata.com via The Big Picture). Current exchange rate is 1.4870 @07:00 GMT

Support: 1.4850, 1.4800, 1.4740/50 and 1.4700
Resistance: 1.4930/50, 1.5000 and 1.5050/60

GBPUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

Cable managed to climb higher against the dollar on yesterday, reaching a daily high at 1.6635 – where resistance was formed by the falling trend line coming from 1.7040 through 1.6695 as seen in the daily chart below. Short-term sentiment is bullish and more gains are likely, 1.6700 being the next objective – followed by 1.7000 a bit higher. On the lower side, support starts at 1.6550, backed by 1.6500 and 1.6400. As long as 1.6400 stays on the South region – upside will be favored, short-term bullishness remaining intact. My long position @1.6515 has been triggered on yesterday’s rally and it’s been quote a good trade – I closed it @1.6600 although in the performance statement it will be a neutral one for reaching the break-even level on the minor pullback to 1.6500 before rallying above 1.6600. Current exchange rate is 1.6588 @07:00 GMT

Support: 1.6550, 1.6500 and 1.6400
Resistance: 1.6635/50, 1.6700 and 1.6800

Have a great day and happy trading!

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Post tags: EURUSD, GBPUSD