Monday
Analysis and forecastsDaily analysis and trading strategies 11-09-09by Liviu
Quote of the day: I have not failed. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work. — Thomas Edison
EURUSD
Trading strategy: long at 1.4905, initial stop at 1.4835 (risk 1%), objective at 1.5040. Adjust stop to breakeven on +30 pips (at 1.4935) if reached.
A busy week is over and a new one has started, hence we shall be ready to continue our trading journey. What’s changed after one week? First of all: the euro is set to gain more ground against the dollar after bouncing off support region around $1.4700, being helped also by gold trading at record highs – weakening the dollar even more. Unemployment figures also stand against the dollar, printing 10.2% unemployment rate and -190k non-farm payrolls. On Friday’s report I mentioned that it was unlikely to expect any break-out as weekend was knocking on the door but this week starts favoring the bulls – euro trading 50 points away from the 1.5000 handle and 100 points below ytd high at 1.5060. Both short-term and intra-day studies are positive and support is formed by the former resistance 1.4850. Potential dips may be limited into the said support zone, re-newing buying appetite. Interim support is also emerging at 1.4900. Current exchange rate is 1.4939 @07:00 GMT
Support: 1.4900, 1.4850, 1.4800 and 1.4700
Resistance: 1.5000, 1.5050/60 and 1.5100
- EURUSD daily chart 11-9-2009
- EURUSD 6hrs chart 11-8-2009
GBPUSD
Trading strategy: long at 1.6600, initial stop at 1.6530 (risk 1%), objective at 1.6700. Adjust stop to breakeven on +40 pips (at 1.6640) if reached.
Cable opened higher and rallied into the 1.67 region, testing offers around 1.6715 while writing these lines. A sustained break above 1.6700 (daily close) would be an important bullish confirmation, opening 1.7000 as next upside objective. An important barrier is seen in between – at 1.6830, which is the median retracement of the whole 2.0155-1.3500 decline. In case of a pullback – 1.6600/35 is expected to provide support. Momentum is bullish in both intra-day and short-term studies. Current exchange rate is 1.6715 @07:00 GMT
Support: 1.6650, 1.6600/35, 1.6550/60 and 1.6500
Resistance: 1.6735/50, 1.6800/30 and 1.6900
- GBPUSD hourly chart 11-9-2009
Have a great day and a profitable week!
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Post Tags: eurusd, forex forecast, gbpusd, technical analysis, trading strategies
Nov 9, 2009, 6:35 pm
good one for euro
go ahead
Nov 9, 2009, 6:43 pm
Hi Majed,
Thanks. Not such a good one since entry was not hit. What I know for sure is that direction (or call it sentiment) matters… depends on audience: 1. some want exact entries while 2. some want directions or simply comparing their own views. To be honest I’d like to say that my views are addressed to the 2nd category.
Nov 22, 2009, 12:48 am
Hi Liviu
thanx for your good work
I’m backtesting your signals
Congratulations for your forecasting about EURUSD
But I would say your GBPUSD signal comes a bit in late:I mean,when you published(7:04 GMT) that upside move was just gone away..
Nov 22, 2009, 8:59 am
Hi
Thanks for the feedback. The expectation in GBPUSD was for a pullback to 1.6600 before resuming uptrend. Market was at 1.6715 at the time of writing, but it didn’t pulled back that much, only the next day – it reached 1.6600 bid during the Asian session (as in this chart: http://bit.ly/52PxLe ). Anyway, entry was not valid since it would be missed by 2-3 points (broker spread). :-)
Have a nice Sunday!