Monday

Daily analysis and trading strategies 12-14-09by Liviu

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Quote of the day: Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others. –John Maynard Keynes

Sorry for not posting any article last Friday, I had some problems with my Internet connection in the hotel – but now I’m back to my good old and reliable desktop PC.

EURUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

The single currency continues to face downside pressure against the dollar, breaching below interim support at 1.4700 last week, extending losses to 1.4600 – notable barrier formed by the 50% retracement level of the 1.4045-1.5145 upward move from August’s low to November’s/YTD peak. Being down 2.25% for this month – overall bias is negative and a sustained recovery needs to clear the 1.4850/1.49 region resistance. Intra-day sentiment is slightly positive and the former support at 1.4700 is expected to provide a minor resistance for now. In case of decline’s continuation below 1.4600 – next barrier is seen around 1.4465 which is the 61.8% of the mentioned up leg from 1.4045 to 1.5145. Current exchange rate is 1.4664 @07:00 GMT

Support levels: 1.4600, 1.4550, 1.4500 and 1.4450/65
Resistance levels: 1.4700, 1.4800, 1.4850/00 and 1.5000
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bullish, short term – bearish, intra-day – slightly bullish

GBPUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

Cable continues to trade within the 50% and 61.8% retracement region of the 1.5705-1.6875 rise from mid October to mid November, as seen in the chart below. Short-term momentum is negative but a potential break above 1.6450 would cancel the bearish view, providing an important confirmation on uptrend’s resumption. However, recent history shows that rallies have been short-lived – cable not being able to hold above important breached levels such as 1.6700 and 1.6800. Downside remains favored for now, and a potential break down below 1.6150 would call for 1.58-1.59. Intra-day momentum is slightly bullish and a potential break above the 1.6290-1.6330 resistance zone would provide a key bullish confirmation. Current exchange rate is 1.6263 @07:00 GMT

Support levels: 1.6250, 1.6200, 1.6150, 1.6100 and 1.6000
Resistance levels: 1.6290, 1.6330/50, 1.6400 and 1.6450
Market sentiment: long term – slightly bullish, medium term – neutral, short term – bearish, intra-day – slightly bullish

NZDUSD

Trading strategy: long at .7220, stop at .7160 (1% risk), 1st objective at .7270, 2nd objective at .7320.

Recent break above the .7200 mark suggests further gains – beginning the development of positive momentum on short term basis. If the NZD will manage to conserve recent gains, not falling back below the .7200 mark – it might have a good chance to rise further towards .7385/00 – resistance formed by the descent trend line coming from last two months’ peaks. Friday’s pullback is a normal corrective move, not affecting current bullish sentiment. Keep an eye on the .7180-.7200 support region though, as that is the most important level to watch within the coming sessions. Current exchange rate is .7252 @07:00 GMT

Support levels: .7180/00, .7150, .7100, .7000/15
Resistance levels: .7300, .7320/50, .7385/00 and .7500
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bullish, short term – bullish, intra-day – bullish

Have a great day!