Tuesday

Daily analysis and trading strategies 12-15-09by Liviu

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Quote of the day: If I’m going to do something, I do it spectacularly or I don’t do it at all. — Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Alsaud

EURUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

Euro started the week into a narrow range of 90 points yesterday, support at $1.4600 being intact, still. Since it couldn’t climb too high, into a safer zone such as the 1.47-1.48 region – downside pressure remains high, near term resistance being set around $1.4700 on first phase, followed by a more notable barrier at 1.4775 and into the 1.4850-1.4900 range – which may provide a key point in refreshing euro’s sell-off. Short term momentum remains in a bearish configuration as a sustained break above the mentioned 1.4850-1.4900 zone is needed to confirm a reversal. If selling intensifies – then 1.4450/65 will probably come on the radar. Personally I’d prefer a bullish scenario – so I am in a cautious stance, waiting for a confirmation of uptrend resumption – the S&P 500 is recovering and recent top side is under pressure, but EUR seem quite lazy to follow. We’ll see if the German ZEW will be a catalyst – throwing the flame needed for euro’s takeoff. Current exchange rate is 1.4641 @07:30 GMT

Support levels: 1.4600, 1.4550, 1.4500 and 1.4450/65
Resistance levels: 1.4700, 1.4775/00, 1.4850/00 and 1.5000
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bullish, short term – bearish, intra-day – neutral

GBPUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

I maintain my (moderate) bullish view presented in yesterday’s chart as cable continues to push on the 1.6330 barrier – conserving positive momentum in near term. A potential break above the said 1.6330 would open the 1.6450-1.6500 upper territory which seem a decent bullish target for the coming sessions. Looking South – 1.6230/50 is the main intra-day support but as long as it holds, the bullish scenario stands valid. Current exchange rate is 1.6291 @07:30 GMT

Support levels: 1.6230/50, 1.6200, 1.6150, 1.6100 and 1.6000
Resistance levels: 1.6330/50, 1.6400, 1.6450 and 1.6500
Market sentiment: long term – slightly bullish, medium term – neutral, short term – bearish, intra-day – slightly bullish

NZDUSD

Trading strategy: small long at .7200, stop at .7160 (0.5% risk), 1st objective at .7240, 2nd objective at .7300

My yesterday’s suggested buying level at .7220 has been missed by about 10 points but the short-term bullish structure is stronger since breaking above .7200. Current resistance around .7300 doesn’t seem to give up easily and it provided quite a solid barrier over the last two weeks. But now that the short term sentiment turned positive, keep an eye on the .7360 region as that’s a more important resistance level – formed by the falling trend line coming through last two months’ peaks. Current exchange rate is .7260 @07:30 GMT

Support levels: .7180/00, .7150, .7100, .7000/15
Resistance levels: .7300, .7320/50, .7385/00 and .7500
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bullish, short term – bullish, intra-day – slightly bearish

Have a good day!