Monday
Analysis and forecastsDaily analysis and trading strategies 12-21-09by Liviu
EURUSD
Trading strategy: small long at 1.4360, stop at 1.4310 (0.5% risk), 1st objective at 1.4400, 2nd objective at 1.4480.
Support on the 1.4300 handle has been stable so far but the euro has yet to breach the downward trend line coming from 1.5140 – now around 1.4410, in order to initiate an extended recovery. While below the said resistance – downside bias remains valid. In the hourly studies there is a minor bullish divergence – as seen in the chart below, formed between last two trading days lows and it suggests a potential recovery. Intra-day sentiment is slightly bullish at the time of writing this but would switch side on a break down below 1.4300. If it holds and the euro will manage to break above 1.4400 – extended gains would be favored towards the 1.46-1.47 region within the coming days. Current exchange rate is 1.4340 @07:20 GMT
Support: 1.4300/05, 1.4250/70 and 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4400, 1.4470/90 and 1.4530
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – slightly bullish, short term – bearish, intra-day – slightly bullish
- EURUSD 4hrs chart 12-21-2009
- EURUSD hourly chart 12-21-2009
NZDUSD
Trading strategy: short at .7200, stop at .7240 (1% risk), 1st objective at .7160, 2nd objective at .7120
Minor support is provided by .7070, not far from .7040/50 where a potential triple bottom may be formed. Short-term sentiment remains bearish as long as .7200 (former support) is intact but the NZD may find some bids into the .7000-.7040 region if current decline continues. Intra-day sentiment is negative, too. Current exchange rate is .7095 @07:20 GMT
Support: .7070, .7030/40, .7000/15 and .6950
Resistance: .7130/50, .7180/00, .7220/50 and .7300
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bullish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bearish
- NZDUSD 4hrs chart 12-21-2009
Have a good day!
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Post Tags: eurusd, forex forecast, nzdusd, technical analysis, trading strategies
Dec 21, 2009, 10:16 am
Hi. I’m not a fan of Elliot waves but if u look on daily chart EURUSD, it seems to be a 5 waves up and 1 wave down.. if it’s correct then we should see further USD advance?! => to 1.37 ?!
And I have a personal question about RO stock market… if u could answer me by mail… thanks..
Dec 21, 2009, 12:16 pm
Hi niajy. I am not a fan of EW either, since it is too subjective for my liking and different people do different waves counting and interpretation, hence I don’t waste time in counting waves and rather focus on clearer (imo) aspects such as price action, momentum etc. We may see 1.37 – I don’t negate that case, but even then – dollar will still be in a corrective phase, as it is now. Despite these 3 weeks decline, longer term uptrend is intact, no doubt about that. It’s been a good year for the EUR if we start the counting back in March when it initiated the recovery, so there’s enough room to the downside to allow the (poor) dollar to show its muscles – moving the ball into euro’s bears court. Question is: will they sell more? Or the whole drop was/is yet another opportunity to buy dips for 1.5+ ? Personally, I rather see an extended action to the upside to confirm a potential resume of euro’s appreciation – instead of going against the short-term trend now (not a good idea to try to catch the falling knife, unless risk is very small). The upside levels I watch for a possible confirmation of uptrend’s resumption are 1.47 and 1.48. Until getting there, selling into anemic rallies seem a good plan to follow.
Regarding your other questions, I’m waiting for your email.
Have a nice day!