Quote of the day: A second reason why science cannot replace judgement is the behavior of financial markets. – Martin Feldstein
EURUSD
Trading strategy: small short at 1.3770, stop at 1.3820(0.5% risk), objective at 1.3710
The euro missed its chance to breach above the $1.38 handle and collapsed, re-testing the 1.3585/00 support region. Although it found bids and recovered half of yesterday’s initial losses – downside remains in focus for now. Next upside barriers are formed at 1.3700 by the 50% retracement of yesterday’s full downward move, followed by 1.3720 and 1.3750/60. Higher comes the 1.3800 handle and recent top at 1.3840 which seems too far up. Short term sentiment remains bearish as long as upside will be capped by the 1.3860-1.39 resistance region. Intra-day sentiment is negative too and an extension of current recovery will probably face fresh selling within the 1.3750-1.38 intra-day resistance range. Current exchange rate is 1.3682 @07:00 GMT
Support: 1.3650, 1.3585/00 and 1.3500
Resistance: 1.3700, 1.3720, 1.3750/60 and 1.3800.
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bearish
- EURUSD hourly chart 2-12-2010
NZDUSD
Trading strategy: stand aside
61.8% retracement ratio of the .7150-.6805 downward move currently limits the upside at .7020 but the kiwi dollar maintains its bid tone against the dollar – thus intra-day studies being bullish while writing this. Extended gains may open .7150 which is a more notable upside barrier. Above the .7100 mark, short-term sentiment turns positive. On the south side – breaching below intra-day support at .6900/30 would cancel the bullish structure, resuming downtrend. Current exchange rate is .6991 @07:00 GMT
Support: .6950, .6900/30, .6850/60, .6800 and .6750
Resistance: .7000/20, .7100 and .7150
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – slightly bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bullish
- NZDUSD 4hrs chart 2-12-2010
AUDJPY
Trading strategy: long at 80.15, stop at 79.60(1% risk), objective at 81.15
The Aussie dollar recovered against the Yen and resistance into the 80-80.10 region is under pressure as price is consolidating pips away from it since yesterday. A break out seems possible, opening 82 in case it occurs. On the lower side, support is formed by the downward trend line which provided resistance since January. 81.20 is in focus while maintaining the bid tone – barrier formed by the median retracement of the full decline from 86.20 to 76.20. Current exchange rate is 79.97 @07:00 GMT
Support: 79.50, 79.00 and 78.50/60
Resistance: 80.00/10, 80.50 and 81.00/20
- AUDJPY 4hrs chart 2-12-2010
Have a great weekend and a happy Valentine’s Day!
