Thursday

Daily analysis and trading strategies 2-18-10

by LiviucloseAuthor: Liviu Name: Liviu Flesar
Site: http://www.innerfx.com
About: I am an independant currency trader providing currency market analysis mainly for two reasons: 1. to improve my discipline, keeping a clear track record of my own thoughts, analyzing both my good and bad expectations on market moves; 2. sharing my thoughts with other traders, hoping they may benefit from my opinions and experience. I don't call myself a veteran or trading guru of some sort as there's a lot more I have to learn, a lot more I have to see and my 8 years experience into currency trading is not enough proof that I will be successful during the next 8 years. I dare to believe that my articles are useful to many traders from around the world and I strive to improve in my attempt to become a better and more accurate writer. innerfx.com is my own project, a blog about currency trading where I share my commentaries and market thoughts. The site has been launched to address the needs of other currency traders and also to keep a track record of my articles. I am not fully dedicated to currency trading because I want to diversify my knowledge, therefore I am involved in different areas.See Authors Posts (1400) on February 18, 2010 – 6:55 am GMT | Post a comment |

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Quote of the day: From error to error, one discovers a new error. — Trader friend from Singapore (in reply to Nietzsche’s “From error to error, one discovers the entire truth” quote, but more trading related)

EURUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

The euro declined back into the $1.35 region, giving back Tuesday’s gains so the recovery scenario is on-hold for now as the recently formed intra-day bullish structure has been negated by breaking through support levels at 1.3685/00 and 1.3650/60, lower. Both levels may provide resistance on rallies, maintaining the downside pressure intact. Above the $1.37 level, uptrend would resume but a full confirmation above 1.3850/60 will be needed – on a short-term basis. My yesterday’s strategy to go long at 1.3690 – expecting a bounce off support – was a bad idea. Intra-day studies are currently bearish and will turn positive in case 1.3630 will be breached. Recent low at 1.3530 remains in focus, followed by 1.3450/80. Current exchange rate is 1.3592 @06:55 GMT

Support: 1.3530/50, 1.3500, 1.3450/80 and 1.3400
Resistance: 1.3600, 1.3630, 1.3650/60 and 1.3700
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bearish

NZDUSD

Trading strategy: holding yesterday’s long at .7010, stop at .6980 (adjusted), objective at .7150.

Kiwi’s losses against the dollar have been smaller as carry trade instruments are performing quite well since last week. Former resistance around the .7000 level provides support for now and resistance is seen around .7075, followed by .7125/50. On a short term basis, a potential break above .7150 will be a very important bullish confirmation. Meanwhile, pressure remains high due to dollar’s strength but upside is slightly favored. My yesterday’s strategy to go long at .7010 has been triggered and it’s worth holding it for now as the test of .7000 could have been corrective only. The position shows a minor profit currently but if the U.S. dollar will strengthen further – a re-test of .6990/00 will most likely turn bad for the NZD. Current exchange rate is .7023 @06:55 GMT

Support: .6990/00, .6960/70 and .6900/30
Resistance: .7075, .7100, .7125/50 and .7200 
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – slightly bearish, short term – slightly bullish, intra-day – neutral

Have a great day!