Monday

Daily analysis and trading strategies 2-8-10by Liviu

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Quote of the day: It seems to be a law of nature, inflexible and inexorable, that those who will not risk cannot win. — John Paul Jones

EURUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

The euro continues to face weakness against the dollar, trading near multi-month low reached Friday at 1.3585, as a result of another sell-off round following U.S. unemployment data – NFP coming at -20k and the unemployment rate at 9.7%, beating the 10% expectation. Short term and intra-day charts remain into the bearish territory and near term resistance levels may limit gains at 1.3720 – falling trend line which provided support on two corrective cycles, followed by 1.38 and 1.3850/60. A sustained break above 1.3850 would signal a change in current short-term structure, but while the euro is heavy near the 1.35 region – gains to 1.3850 should be hard to achieve – as rallies are facing strong selling since December. In case of more losses – support starts at 1.3585/90, backed by 1.3550 and 1.3500. 1.3480 which is a notable support formed by the 61.8% of last year’s full rise comes lower – around 1.3480. Current exchange rate is 1.3640 @07:24 GMT

Support: 1.3585/90, 1.3550 and 1.3500
Resistance: 1.3700/20, 1.3750, 1.3800 and 1.3850/60
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bearish

NZDUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

Downside pressure remains high and the support region formed by the falling trend line coming from .7080 – now around .6860 – seems fragile and a break down should open .6550/00 – key support and former resistance last year, formed by the median retracement of the full decline from 2008 to 2009 (.8215 to .4890). Potential gains may be limited into resistance region around .6980/00 – former support and median retracement of last down leg / last week’s range. Short-term sentiment is bearish while the intra-day charts are neutral. Current exchange rate is .6872 @07:24 GMT

Support: .6850/60, .6800 and .6750
Resistance: .6900, .6980/00 and .7050
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – slightly bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – neutral

Have a great day!