Wednesday

Daily analysis and trading strategies 3-17-10

by LiviucloseAuthor: Liviu Name: Liviu Flesar
Site: http://www.innerfx.com
About: I am an independant currency trader providing currency market analysis mainly for two reasons: 1. to improve my discipline, keeping a clear track record of my own thoughts, analyzing both my good and bad expectations on market moves; 2. sharing my thoughts with other traders, hoping they may benefit from my opinions and experience. I don't call myself a veteran or trading guru of some sort as there's a lot more I have to learn, a lot more I have to see and my 8 years experience into currency trading is not enough proof that I will be successful during the next 8 years. I dare to believe that my articles are useful to many traders from around the world and I strive to improve in my attempt to become a better and more accurate writer. innerfx.com is my own project, a blog about currency trading where I share my commentaries and market thoughts. The site has been launched to address the needs of other currency traders and also to keep a track record of my articles. I am not fully dedicated to currency trading because I want to diversify my knowledge, therefore I am involved in different areas.See Authors Posts (1400) on March 17, 2010 – 7:18 am GMT | Post a comment |

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Quote of the day: The only certain thing about the future is that it will surprise even those who have seen furthest into it. — Eric Hobsbawm

EURUSD

Trading strategy: standing aside

The euro flirts with the recent top side at $1.38, reaching some fresh highs, as the dollar was weaker across the board yesterday, losing ground to its major counter part currencies as a result of Fed keeping rates unchanged – suggesting there will be no change in the near future, along with better sentiment towards Greece. However, while below 1.3850, some would still throw large selling orders into the market – expecting the current upward move to be corrective only. Therefore, the ongoing break above 1.3800 which is the 61.8% of the last minor down leg from 1.4025 to 1.3445 may lead to further gains as minor dips will find support above the 1.3700 mark. I maintain my short-term bullish view for now, while not violating the 1.3650-1.37 support region, and will wait for a reasonable confirmation above 1.3860. Potential break above 1.3850 may bring the 1.39 in focus quite fast – accelerating on short covering. 1.3700/30 is the first intra-day support region to watch in case of  pullback. My long @1.3655 was closed on reaching target at 1.3795 (+140 points gain). Current exchange rate is 1.3811 @07:15 GMT

Support:  1.3700/30, 1.3640/50, 1.3600/15 and 1.3550
Resistance: 1.3790/00, 1.3840/60 and 1.3900
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bearish, short term – slightly bullish, intra-day – bullish

NZDUSD

Trading strategy: standing aside

The .7100 mark failed to provide a notable barrier and the kiwi dollar extended its gains up to .7132 in overnight trading, not far from the next resistance, at .7150. The .7280/00 upside target remains valid while not switching side towards .6960 and below. Both short-term and intra-day studies are bullish and potential pullbacks may find support around .7050. Current exchange rate is .7127 @07:15 GMT

Support: .7050, .7000, .6960/70 and .6940/50
Resistance: .7130/50, .7200 and .7280/00
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – slightly bearish, short term – bullish, intra-day – bullish

GBPUSD

Trading strategy: will consider a small short at 1.5450 if we get there; stop at 1.5520 (0.5% risk), objective at 1.5250.

Cable gained 280 points against the dollar yesterday and the trend line resistance coming from last week’s 1.5195 and 1.5215 is under pressure around 1.5250. A break to the upside, which is likely, would confirm that we are not dealing with a bear flag formation, therefore opening 1.5420 and 1.5500. On pullback, support may limit losses around 1.5130. Today’s MPC Meeting Minutes may have a volatile effect on the pair, so caution is required. Short term sentiment is bullish. Current exchange rate is 1.5267 @07:15 GMT

Have a great day and happy trading!