Thursday

Daily analysis and trading strategies 3-4-10

by LiviucloseAuthor: Liviu Name: Liviu Flesar
Site: http://www.innerfx.com
About: I am an independant currency trader providing currency market analysis mainly for two reasons: 1. to improve my discipline, keeping a clear track record of my own thoughts, analyzing both my good and bad expectations on market moves; 2. sharing my thoughts with other traders, hoping they may benefit from my opinions and experience. I don't call myself a veteran or trading guru of some sort as there's a lot more I have to learn, a lot more I have to see and my 8 years experience into currency trading is not enough proof that I will be successful during the next 8 years. I dare to believe that my articles are useful to many traders from around the world and I strive to improve in my attempt to become a better and more accurate writer. innerfx.com is my own project, a blog about currency trading where I share my commentaries and market thoughts. The site has been launched to address the needs of other currency traders and also to keep a track record of my articles. I am not fully dedicated to currency trading because I want to diversify my knowledge, therefore I am involved in different areas.See Authors Posts (1400) on March 4, 2010 – 7:21 am GMT | 2 Comments |

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EURUSD

Trading stratetgy: looking to sell at 1.3795, stop at 1.3855(1% risk), objective at 1.3675.

Yesterday’s close above last week’s top and above the falling trend line coming from 1.3840 was an upside confirmation and support may be found now into the 1.3625/50 region. There are several important events today such as the ECB Interest Rate decision at 12:45 GMT, followed by Trichet’s speech, US Initial Jobless Claims  along with the Nonfarm Productivity at 13:30 GMT. If the euro will sustain gains above $1.36, short-term sentiment will remain in a slightly bullish stance, thus extended gains towards key resistance around 1.3850 being favored within the coming days. Intra-day sentiment is bearish for now, as the euro gives back some of yesterday’s gains but the move could be corrective – so keep an eye on the 1.3650 and 1.3600 support regions. Current exchange rate is 1.3661 @07:20 GMT

Support: 1.3625/50, 1.3600, 1.3540/60, 1.3500 and 1.3440/50
Resistance: 1.3700, 1.3735/50, 1.3780 and 1.3840/60
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bearish, short term – slightly bullish, intra-day – bearish

GBPUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

Cable recovered up to 1.5130 yesterday but continues to face selling pressure on rallies so the 1.5000 mark is back in focus, being the first important support level on its way down towards recent lows. Short-term sentiment is highly bearish and a change is quite unlikely – since a break above 1.5300 is needed to signal a change on short-term basis. BOE’s interest rate decision at 12:00 GMT is one of today’s important events to watch – interest rate being expected to remain unchanged at 0.5%. Current exchange rate is 1.5052 @07:20 GMT

Support: 1.5000, 1.4900, 1.4850 and 1.4780
Resistance: 1.5080, 1.5130 and 1.5180
Market sentiment: long term – bearish, medium term – bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bearish

NZDUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

The kiwi dollar continues to lose ground after prolonged hesitation against the .7000 resistance, and it is down 120 points – making the .6760 support a reasonable target. Short-term sentiment is bearish as a sustained break above .7000 was needed to confirm a change in direction. .6845/50 is an interim support formed by a trend line coming through last week’s lows. Both daily and 4 hours charts are suggesting that more losses are likely. Current exchange rate is .6874 @07:20 GMT

Support: .6845, .6800 and .6760
Resistance: .6930, .7000 and .7050
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – slightly bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bearish

Have a great day!