Thursday

Daily outlook and trading strategies 01-07-10by Liviu

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Quote of the day: Your best teacher is your last mistake. — Ralph Nader

EURUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

The dollar lost some ground on the FOMC minutes released yesterday, euro reaching session highs few points below the 1.4450 resistance which would encourage uptrend to resume if breached. While below the said barrier, downside pressure remains quite high although yesterday’s fast recovery initiated after spiking below the 1.4300 handle also confirms that current consolidation structure is slightly bullish. Intra-day sentiment is currently negative and first support comes into the 1.4345/60 region, followed by 1.4285/00 lower. Important economic events today are the BOE interest rate decision at 12:00 GMT – expected to leave rates unchanged at 0.50%, followed by Initial Jobless Claims in the US at 13:30 GMT, expected to print 445k. However, everyone’s focus is on tomorrow’s much more important NFP release which is widely expected to post a positive figure. Meanwhile, upside is slightly favored especially if euro will follow gold which recovers in a clearer short-term uptrend. Current exchange rate is 1.4365 @07:20 GMT

Support: 1.4345/60, 1.4285/00, 1.4250 and 1.4215/25
Resistance: 1.4450, 1.4485/00 and 1.4550
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – slightly bullish, short term – slightly bullish, intra-day – bearish

NZDUSD

Trading strategy: long at .7285, stop at .7240 (1% risk), 1st objective at .7330, 2nd objective at .7375

The .7500 mark is in focus since breaking above .7300 but a correction to the downside seem likely, maybe re-testing the freshly formed support around .7300. Short term sentiment is bullish and current uptrend is strong – confirmation provided by the last 9 bars/candles which were all bullish – time to take a breath, then? If current sentiment remains unchanged, and it should remain so as long as the New Zealand dollar holds above the .7200 mark – extended dips should provide fresh buying opportunities, maintaining the uptrend intact. Current exchange rate is .7358 @07:20 GMT

Support: .7280/00, .7250/55 and .7200
Resistance: .7400, .7430/50 and .7500
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bullish, short term – bullish, intra-day – bearish

Have a good day!