Thursday

Daily outlook and trading strategies 09-03-09by Liviu

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EURUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

The euro recovered half of the recent losses on yesterday, being supported by 1.4200. The European fx trading session will probably be quiet ahead of ECB Interest Rate decision and Trichet’s speech later today. As stated on my yesterday’s report, while 1.4200 holds – short term sentiment remains positive therefore expecting rallies towards (or maybe above) the top side into the 1.4400-1.4450 region. First intra-day resistance is formed by 1.4300 followed by 1.4360 then 1.4400 higher. Intra-day sentiment is also bullish. Upside is favored for now. Current exchange rate is 1.4275 @06:00 GMT

Support: 1.4200, 1.4150 and 1.4050
Resistance: 1.4300, 1.4360 and 1.4400

GBPUSD

Trading strategy: long at 1.6310 on break of 1.6300 (hourly bar closed above 1.6300), initial stop at 1.6240, objective at 1.6420

1.6300 is on focus as the Pound recovered from 1.6115, trading around 1.6270 at the time of writing this. Short term bearish sentiment is contracting and a potential break above 1.6380 would signal at least the beginning of a corrective cycle if not a full trend reversal. Gains above 1.6300 are possible as the odds seem to favor the upside while above the 1.6200 handle. Keep an eye on 1.6380 as it is an important short term barrier. Current exchange rate is 1.6284 @06:00 GMT

Support: 1.6200, 1.6100/15 and 1.6000
Resistance: 1.6300, 1.6375/80 and 1.6450

USDCAD

Trading strategy: stand aside

The rising trend line coming around 1.1120 has provided a minor reversal point on yesterday as it survived yet another test. However, short term sentiment remains positive as price action suggests further gains on the US dollar side. Intra-day sentiment is slightly negative, though, and a potential break below 1.1000 may open 1.0880/00 where the first important support level is seen. Current exchange rate is 1.1028 @06:00 GMT

Support: 1.1000, 1.0950 and 1.0850/60
Resistance: 1.1100/20, 1.1150 and 1.1200