Thursday

Daily outlook in fewer words 11-26-09by Liviu

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Quote of the day: A clear vision, backed by definite plans, gives you a tremendous feeling of confidence and personal power. — Brian Tracy

EURUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

Yesterday’s rally above the 1.5000/60 region looks good to me as I’ve been calling for euro’s break higher quite a few times lately. Also, according to the last poll I posted – the break out was widely anticipated this week (by 48% of us who voted for the bullish scenario). It’s crystal (ball) clear that the extended rally from 1.5060 to 1.5145 was highly influenced by the tons of stop-loss orders waiting into the 50-100 points range above 1.5000/50. I wonder now how the bears will position themselves – either sell into higher levels of 1.51-1.52 or reverse, expecting 1.5000 to provide a stable bottom? Personally I’d prefer to buy on the dip to 1.5000 or a bit below, eventually. However, because we are entering the Thanksgiving weekend, I prefer to stand aside for now – hence taking a day off tomorrow (no report). Current exchange rate is 1.5063 @07:18 GMT

GBPUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

My plan of holding the long position @1.6605 has been a good idea – cable rallying all the way to my 2nd objective @1.6725 (and a bit above) in no-time, hence a profitable trading plan of 120 points. Downside is under pressure today as cable pulls back from 1.67, so far breaking below 1.6650 minor intra-day support. Below 1.6600 – more selling likely to emerge. Short-term sentiment remains into the neutral/slightly bearish territory while 1.6700 is intact, providing resistance. Current exchange rate is 1.6635 @07:18 GMT

NZDUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

Not being able to maintain a bid-tone approaching .7400 – NZD is weakening again. Important support is formed by the .7200 handle but I wouldn’t bet too much on how strong it will be in case of a re-test. It is worth watching it, though, as a break down may provide a good selling point – objectives into the .6900-.7000 zone. Current exchange rate is .7226 @07:18 GMT

USDCAD

Trading strategy: stand aside

Yesterday’s close below 1.0540 could be a notable bearish confirmation, so the 1.0540/50 region is expected to provide resistance for now. If it does, 1.0400/15 will be in focus. Short-term sentiment is bearish, especially due to yesterday’s break-down – confirming that recent up leg to 1.0730 was corrective. Current exchange rate is 1.0520 @07:18 GMT

Have a great day, weekend and Thanksgiving Holiday!