Intra-day update on EURUSD 09-11-09

EURUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

European trading has been quiet, the euro holding gains a few points below 1.4620 which is quite an important resistance on both medium and long term charts. If the euro takes out 1.4620 on a stronger move, then it is likely to take out some of the conservative stop-loss orders of bears selling on the 61.8% of the decline from 1.6035. The euro had a good run this week and so far gained 2.10% against the greenback, currently 150 points above former top side at 1.4445/50. A minor trend line support is seen on the 4-hrs charts just below current bar, around 1.4570. In case of a break down this line, a corrective cycle may aim towards bids into the 1.4500 region and lower, to 1.4445/50 which is likely to limit the downside for a while. My current bias remains to the upside but I suspect a corrective move first, and the intra-day price action provides me some clues on this potential pull back. Momentum is losing strength on current consolidation and it won’t be easy to gather a lot of bids at these elevated levels. But, I repeat: above 1.4620 will re-bring upside pressure on focus. I prefer to watch for now and think about a potential buying plan for next week. Current exchange rate is 1.4590 @12:30 GMT

Support: 1.4570, 1.4500 and 1.4450
Resistance: 1.4620, 1.4700, 1.4720/50

Update on my last GBPUSD trade: stop was reached at 1.6740 but the market reversed afterwards – now trading into the same region I’ve sold, not showing decent signs of uptrend’s continuation yet – so it could have been a good trade but with a wider stop of 5-10 more pips… who knows.

I wish you all a great weekend. I will probably get back later if there will be anything new, worth writing about.

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