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NFP Report Keeps Market Quiet

Plans are only good intentions unless they immediately degenerate into hard work. ~ Peter Drucker

Good morning. It’s that day of the month again, when everyone is waiting for the release of NFP report, which is expected by analysts to post a figure around 150k. Most currency pairs are trading quietly since yesterday, ahead of today’s employment figures

USD Index

79.50 provides a stable barrier to the upside; sellers are probably waiting on the sideline, in case of a rally in the next trading sessions

USD Index Chart Daily 2-3-2012

USD Index Chart Daily 2-3-2012

Silver

Silver climbs higher, above 34, after it found bids at 33 two days ago. October and November’s highs are next targets to keep an eye on

Silver Chart Daily 2-3-2012

Silver Chart Daily 2-3-2012

AUDJPY

Daily chart is pretty much unchanged since yesterday, so we better take a look at 4hrs. As seen below, the cross is still in consolidation mode and no major change of direction is expected, in my opinion, until later today. I remain bullish on AUDJPY (short term basis)

AUDJPY Chart 4hrs 2-3-2012

AUDJPY Chart 4hrs 2-3-2012

GBPUSD

Moving averages are very useful in trending markets, as they usually provide stable support or resistance levels, such as the ones highlighted below. It seems that a new test of 1.5875/00 is just around the corner.

GBPUSD Chart 4hrs 2-3-2012

GBPUSD Chart 4hrs 2-3-2012

NZDUSD

NZDUSD is also worth a look due to yesterday’s small reversal candle. No need to call it a reversal yet, because it is not the most obvious proof of massive selling at recent top, but it might be a good idea to sell on weakness below .8250/60

NZDUSD Chart 4hrs 2-3-2012

NZDUSD Chart 4hrs 2-3-2012

Have a great weekend!

- Continue reading: NFP Report Keeps Market Quiet

Dollar Loses Ground Ahead of Tomorrow’s NFP

The outcome of any serious research can only be to make two questions grow where only one grew before. ~ Thorstein Veblen

Good morning. Dollar is back down retesting weekly bottom ahead of tomorrow’s NFP report.

USD Index

79.50 remains intact and provided a stable resistance point in the last 3 days. Judging by how things look now, I think there’s a good chance to test 78 soon

USD Index Chart Daily 2-2-2012

USD Index Chart Daily 2-2-2012

EURUSD

Recent decline to 1.3025/50 was corrective and upside is back in focus, so it’s time to keep an eye on 1.32 once again. More upside is likely due to short-covering (EUR short contracts are at all-time record), risk appetite in other instruments/markets which are highly correlated to EURUSD and, of course, ongoing dollar weakness – even if it is corrective in nature – there’s more room

EURUSD Chart Daily 2-2-2012

EURUSD Chart Daily 2-2-2012

Silver

Recovery continues after 33 was tested, hence bulls are back in control. First short-term support is now formed between 32.50 and 33, so there’s no reason to panic as long as silver maintains altitude above the said region

Silver Chart daily 2-2-2012

Silver Chart daily 2-2-2012

AUDJPY

I guess it’s time to expect the recovery to continue as AUD found support around 80.50. A strong NFP figure tomorrow would likely trigger a new rally to 83

AUDJPY chart Daily 2-2-2012

AUDJPY chart Daily 2-2-2012

GBPUSD

There’ve been couple of strong moves recently, all suggesting that a breakout above 1.5750 was just around the corner. 1.5750-1.5800 should provide support now, if cable pulls back from here.

GBPUSD Chart Daily 2-2-2012

GBPUSD Chart Daily 2-2-2012

EURGBP

Given recent cable strength, EUR stand no chance against GBP, so I was wrong expecting it to hold onto gains above .8375/00. Maybe some other time…

EURGBP Chart Daily 2-2-2012

EURGBP Chart Daily 2-2-2012

AUDNZD

Recent breach of support at 1.29 looks valid and recovery attempts will probably face selling orders around the former support zone. I remain bearish on AUDNZD on a short-term basis

AUDNZD chart Daily 2-2-2012

AUDNZD chart Daily 2-2-2012

Have a great day!

- Continue reading: Dollar Loses Ground Ahead of Tomorrow’s NFP

Euro Pulls Back Before EU Leaders Meet in Brussels

The trouble with normal is it always gets worse. ~ Bruce Cockburn

Good morning. Euro trades lower today, before European leaders meet in Brussels to discuss the region’s debt crisis and sign off a permanent rescue fund for the eurozone. Here’s a couple of charts to start the week with:

USD Index

Former support around 79.50 is now providing the first resistance level, so it’s a good idea to keep an eye on it if dollar’s recovery continues

USD Chart Daily 1-30-2012

USD Chart Daily 1-30-2012

EURUSD

4hrs chart still looks quite bullish as the higher lows-higher highs formation is intact. Support formed between 1.3100 and 1.3150 is currently being tested. Anyway, even if it breaks – there’s one more important barrier around 1.3050

EURUSD Chart 4hrs 1-30-2012

EURUSD Chart 4hrs 1-30-2012

According to latest COT data, there are more sellers than ever – although EUR keeps recovering:

EUR COT Daily 1-30-2012

EUR COT Daily 1-30-2012

Silver

33 is currently under pressure as silver pulls back from session highs. Recovery is still strong and corrections are normal – so this could be only a correction.

Silver Chart Daily 1-30-2012

Silver Chart Daily 1-30-2012

EURGBP

.8375 was a a tough barrier but was successfully breached on Friday’s rally. It was tested a bit earlier today and EUR found decent bids, so there’s a good chance it will provide a stable support for now

EURGBP Chart Daily 1-30-2012

EURGBP Chart Daily 1-30-2012

AUDNZD

AUDNZD starts the week with a potential breakdown below 1.2900/30 which provided a good support for the past two weeks. The cross has been on my watch list for several days, waiting for such a decline below 1.2900, eventually providing a selling opportunity

AUDNZD Chart Daily 1-30-2012

AUDNZD Chart Daily 1-30-2012

AUDCAD

Maybe the highlighted candlestick is not the most reliable reversal pattern but it definitely raises a big warning sign, suggesting that there’s an equilibrium between buyers and sellers. It’s a bit too early to call a top but it’s a good idea to keep an eye on this

AUDCAD Chart Daily 1-30-2012

AUDCAD Chart Daily 1-30-2012

Have a great day!

- Continue reading: Euro Pulls Back Before EU Leaders Meet in Brussels

10 Trading Lessons You Can Learn From George Bernard Shaw

George Bernard Shaw

Born in Dublin, Ireland, in 1856, George Bernard Shaw grew to become one of Great Britain’s greatest and most controversial playwrights. Shaw’s father, a corn merchant, was an alcoholic and therefore there was very little money to spend on George’s education. George went to local schools but never went to university and was largely self-taught.

He was also a co-founder of the London School of Economics, won the Nobel Prize in Literature in 1925 and an Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay (Pygmalion) in 1938.

G. Bernard Shaw had quite a bit to say during his lifetime, so here are 10 of his many quotes and what we, as traders, can learn from

1. Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.

Don’t believe everything you find on the Internet. There are thousands of trading related websites out there and many of them are created by people who know little or nothing about what they’re talking about or – worse – what they want you to buy. Remember to always do your due diligence. In trading, delusion costs you time and money.

2. Everything happens to everybody sooner or later if there is time enough.

Patience is very important. Don’t expect to achieve your goals in just a few weeks or months. It takes time and dedication to learn what you need to know in order to survive the market.

3. He who can, does. He who cannot, teaches.

It’s no secret that most traders fail and quit trading relatively fast. We should accept the fact that trading is not for everyone. Kind of like politics, burglary, pest control, high-rise window washing, surgery, quantitative engineering etc. – just insert other dangerous, high skill requiring or even disgusting jobs that only a few people are able to do.
Will you be one of those to quit trading someday? Here is a good exit plan for those who eventually accept the fact that trading is not for them: Did you learn a lot of things about trading, although it didn’t work out, but can be helpful for some people? – Then write a book or a trading course and sell it :)

4. Man can climb to the highest summits, but he cannot dwell there long

There are cycles everywhere. Being successful is a cycle which, sooner or later – or on a long enough timeline – always comes to an end. Enjoy it and do good things while it lasts.

5. People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

If you finally find something that works for you and you enjoy what you do, don’t let other people tell you that you are doing it wrong.

6. Success does not consist in never making mistakes but in never making the same one a second time.

What are your biggest trading mistakes? Do you remember them? It’s always a good idea to write them down on a list and check that list on a regular basis. Try to find patterns as there’s often a tight relation between smaller mistakes – resulting in trading mistakes of greater magnitude.

7. The minority is sometimes right; the majority always wrong.

More than 90% of traders lose and that’s a fact. Do you believe that doing exactly the same things they do, trading exactly the same way they trade, expecting the same thing they expect – will make you one of the few that are successful? Then you are most likely wrong.

8. We must always think about things, and we must think about things as they are, not as they are said to be.

Details matter, but try to see the forest for the trees. Don’t let the gigantic river of news, opinions, rumours influence your beliefs, plans and strategies.

9. If you have an apple and I have an apple and we exchange these apples then you and I will still each have one apple. But if you have an idea and I have an idea and we exchange these ideas, then each of us will have two ideas.

Unless you found the “holy grail of trading”, it’s a good idea to share information with others. Sometimes many small ideas equal a big one.

10. Progress is impossible without change, and those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything

Always adapt: understand new market dynamics and be ready to go with the flow.

This is all for now. If you liked this article, you may want to check a similar one: 10 trading lessons to learn from Albert Einstein

Feedback is always welcome, so feel free to post your comments below

- Continue reading: 10 Trading Lessons You Can Learn From George Bernard Shaw

Dollar Down After Fed; Euro, Risk Pairs, Metals Rally

Believe those who are seeking the truth. Doubt those who find it. ~ Andre Gide

Good morning. Dollar’s decline continues as Fed says interest rates are likely to stay near zero through late 2014. Therefore, euro, risk pairs and metals rallied big-time – as seen on the charts below. Important events in today’s FX Calendar are: Core Durable Goods, Initial Jobless Claims and New Home Sales

USD Index

Now that support around 79.50 has been breached and the buck is testing session lows, it’s not a good idea to buy dips but rather consider new selling opportunities with stops above former support zone and/or yesterday’s high.

USD Index Chart Daily 1-26-2012

USD Index Chart Daily 1-26-2012

EURUSD

The breakout scenario mentioned yesterday occurred after Fed’s rate decision and now it’s time to expect former resistance at 1.3050 to provide support on dips.

EURUSD Chart 4hrs 1-26-2012

EURUSD Chart 4hrs 1-26-2012

On the daily chart there’s a long tailed candlestick formed yesterday, suggesting that recovery is still strong and pullbacks are finding decent bids.

EURUSD Chart Daily 1-26-2012

EURUSD Chart Daily 1-26-2012

Silver

Silver provides another nice breakout setup so it’s best to keep an eye on this resistance around 33 which is being tested at time of writing

Silver Chart Daily 1-26-2012

Silver Chart Daily 1-26-2012

AUDJPY

As I stated before, AUDJPY is one of the main pairs EURUSD is following right now. 83 is getting closer, acting like a magnet, so no matter what you’re planning to do – be that selling on strength or buying more on the potential breakout – it’s best to wait until this level will be tested, probably a matter of hours.

AUDJPY Chart Daily 1-26-2012

AUDJPY Chart Daily 1-26-2012

EURGBP

EURGBP is back at resistance zone after a short visit to the downside where it found bids yesterday. As said two days ago, I think it would be a good bet to buy on the potential breakout higher – targeting .8500/25

EURGBP Chart Daily 1-26-2012

EURGBP Chart Daily 1-26-2012

AUDNZD

AUD is facing resistance around 1.300 so it is still a good idea to keep an eye on 1.2900 which has a good chance to break soon

AUDNZD Chart 4hrs 1-26-2012

AUDNZD Chart 4hrs 1-26-2012

have a great day!

- Continue reading: Dollar Down After Fed; Euro, Risk Pairs, Metals Rally

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