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Daily analysis and trading strategies 7-19-10

Posted by Liviu on July 19, 2010 – 5:59AM GMT - 11827Leave your thoughts2010-07-19+05%3A59%3A45Liviu

EURUSD

Trading strategy: standing aside

Upside was capped by 1.3000 on Friday and the euro pulled back 100 points, but still holds gains above 1.2900. Short-term sentiment remains highly bearish and no signs of up trend exhaustion are seen yet. However, in case of extending current pullback below 1.29, we can look at 1.2700-1.2765 as a region where more will join the bull crowd. While 1.2400 is far below current rates, upside will remain favored on both short term and medium term basis. According to latest COT data, euro’s appreciation towards the $1.3 caused more short-covering and the net shorts figure is back to levels of mid January. As mentioned in some of my previous reports – I expect the COT figures to turn positive once 1.3 breaks. Current exchange rate is 1.2905 @06:00 GMT

Support: 1.2870, 1.2830/50, 1.2785/00 and 1.2700
Resistance: 1.2950, 1.3000 and 1.3100
Market sentiment: long term – bearish, medium term – slightly bearish, short term – bullish, intra-day – bearish

: EURUSD 4hrs chart 7-19-2010

: EURO COT 7-19-2010

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Daily analysis and trading strategies 7-16-10

Posted by Liviu on July 16, 2010 – 5:54AM GMT - 11820Leave your thoughts2010-07-16+05%3A54%3A44Liviu

Quote of the day: Experienced traders control risk, inexperienced traders chase gains. — Alan Farley

EURUSD

Trading strategy: small long at 1.2820, stop at 1.2760 (0.5% risk), 1st objective at 1.2870, 2nd objective at 1.2920

$1.3 is getting closer as the euro rallied yesterday, overcoming the $1.2800 barrier. Even though there are no signs of a pullback yet, it is Friday and some profit taking will probably limit gains towards 1.3. Short-term sentiment remains highly bullish and a change of mid-term studies should be confirmed if 1.3 breaks soon. On intra-day basis, pullbacks below 1.29 are expected to face support around 1.2830/50 and a bit lower – at 1.2785/00 which served as resistance. Today’s most notable event in the economic calendar is the Consumer Price Index at at 13:30 GMT. It is somehow funny to admit it but the euro looks overbought - I wasn’t expecting to say it anytime soon as I got used to its multi-month collapse. Time will tell if current recovery is corrective or not, and we will most likely find out very soon. Current exchange rate is 1.2905 @05:55 GMT

Support: 1.2900, 1.2830/50, 1.2785/00 and 1.2700
Resistance: 1.2950, 1.3000 and 1.3100
Market sentiment: long term – bearish, medium term – slightly bearish, short term – bullish, intra-day – bullish

EURUSD daily chart 7-16-2010

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Daily analysis and trading strategies 7-15-10

Posted by Liviu on July 15, 2010 – 6:10AM GMT - 11813Leave your thoughts2010-07-15+06%3A10%3A19Liviu

EURUSD

Trading strategy: small long at 1.2655, stop at 1.2585 (0.5% risk), 1st objective at 1.2705, 2nd objective at 1.2805

The euro has extended gains above Tuesday’s top at $1.2738, reaching $1.2777 – few points below the 50% retracement of last down leg from 1.3690 to 1.1875. Technical readings are suggesting a healthy uptrend on a short-term basis and no signs of exhaustion are seen yet. While the euro continues to push to the upside, not losing strength to $1.24 and below, the 1.3 psychological barrier remains in focus and it seems a matter of days, at current pace, until it will be reached. On a medium term basis, a sustained break above the 1.3 handle will provide the green light for longer term bullish positions, and the change will most likely be confirmed by the COT sentiment charts. On intra-day basis – 1.2700 seems pretty stable but if you look for a safer support zone, then 1.2620/50 could be the one. On the upside, the said 50% retracement at 1.2785 is the most notable resistance until 1.3. Looking at the daily charts, there’s also a trend line coming from 1.3445 of February 19, connecting the next lower lows and the top of May 10, at 1.3095, when the market spiked up when the European Union officials approved a $1 trillion bailout to stabilize the zone’s currency and rescue Greece. The said trend line currently stands around 1.2780. Current exchange rate is 1.2743 @06:10 GMT

Support: 1.2700, 1.2620/60, 1.2600, 1.2550 and 1.2500/20
Resistance: 1.2785/00, 1.2900 and 1.3000
Market sentiment: long term – bearish, medium term – bearish, short term – bullish, intra-day – bullish

: EURUSD 4hrs chart 7-15-2010

: EURUSD daily chart 7-15-2010

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Daily analysis and trading strategies 7-14-10

Posted by Liviu on July 14, 2010 – 6:10AM GMT - 11802Leave your thoughts2010-07-14+06%3A10%3A34Liviu

EURUSD

Trading strategy: small long at 1.2655, stop at 1.2585 (0.5% risk), 1st objective at 1.2705, 2nd objective at 1.2805

The euro rallied to $1.2738, the strongest since May, confirming that the decline to $1.2520/50 was corrective. Short-term sentiment remains bullish even though it was unchanged while the pair tested the lower side below 1.2600. While holding gains above 1.2500, trading comfortably near recent top at 1.2738, it’s quite obvious that more upside action is in the cards and shorting when reversal signs do not exist it’s a bad idea. Potential pullbacks will probably face intra-day support into the 1.2640/70 region. On the upside, an interim barrier is formed by the 50% of 1.3690-1.1875 at 1.2785. Next important resistance comes at 1.3000 which is both a psychological barrier and the 61.8% of the mentioned down leg from 1.3690 to 1.1875. Buying on dips or breakout are the best strategies for now. The Retail Sales at 13:30 GMT and FOMC Meeting Minutes at 19:00 GMT are today’s notable events in the economic calendar. Current exchange rate is 1.2712 @06:10 GMT

Support: 1.2640/70, 1.2600, 1.2550 and 1.2500/20
Resistance: 1.2740/50, 1.2785/00, 1.2900 and 1.3000
Market sentiment: long term – bearish, medium term – bearish, short term – bullish, intra-day – bullish

: EURUSD 4hrs chart 7-14-2010

: EURUSD daily chart 7-14-2010

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Daily analysis and trading strategies 7-13-10

Posted by Liviu on July 13, 2010 – 5:59AM GMT - 1179320 Comments2010-07-13+05%3A59%3A36Liviu

EURUSD

Trading strategy: standing aside

Yesterday’s trading sessions have been rather quiet after the slide to as low as 1.2550 against the dollar. First intra-day resistance is currently limiting gains around 1.2615 but the short-term studies remain bullish as long as the euro doesn’t return below the 1.2300 handle. However, the 4 hrs charts are showing signs of trend exhaustion and a break above 1.2650 is needed to regain strength and confirm that the drop to 1.2550 was corrective. Today’s economic calendar contains some important data releases such as the German Zew at 10:00 GMT and the US Trade Balance at 13:30 GMT. Keep an eye on the 1.2650 region in case euro rebounds – breakout should provide an earlier buying opportunity – 1.2715 being a more important barrier. On the lower side – 1.2550 is where to look for shorting opportunities. Current exchange rate is 1.2589 @06:00 GMT

Support: 1.2550, 1.2500/20, 1.2465, 1.2400 and 1.2300
Resistance: 1.2615, 1.2650, 1.2700/10, 1.2750 and 1.2800
Market sentiment: long term – bearish, medium term – bearish, short term – bullish, intra-day – bearish

: EURUSD 4hrs chart 7-13-2010

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Daily analysis and trading strategies 7-19-10

Daily analysis and trading strategies 7-16-10

Daily analysis and trading strategies 7-15-10

Daily analysis and trading strategies 7-14-10

Daily analysis and trading strategies 7-13-10

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