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Daily analysis and trading strategies 3-19-10

Posted by Liviu on March 19, 2010 – 6:58AM GMT - 112051 Comment2010-03-19+06%3A58%3A03Liviu

EURUSD

Trading strategy: looking to sell at 1.3685, stop at 1.3745 (0.5% risk), objective at 1.3605

Euro’s sell-off continued, extending below $1.36, to as low as 1.3585. Downside remains under pressure as there’s no sign of a recovery and the euro may revisit the 1.3450 support zone within the coming sessions. Resistance into the 1.3670-1.3700 region will probably cap the upside in case of a correction. Above 1.37 – short-term uptrend resumes, but for now – focus should stay to the downside. Current exchange rate is 1.3613 @06:58 GMT

Support: 1.3550/85, 1.3500 and 1.3450
Resistance: 1.3680/00, 1.3735, 1.3800/20, 1.3850/60 and 1.3900
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bearish, short term – slightly bearish, intra-day – bearish

: EURUSD 4hrs chart 3-19-2010

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Daily analysis and trading strategies 3-18-10

Posted by Liviu on March 18, 2010 – 6:52AM GMT - 112003 Comments2010-03-18+06%3A52%3A15Liviu

EURUSD

Trading strategy: standing aside

Downside is under pressure again as the euro failed to hold gains and penetrate higher, above 1.38. Important intra-day support comes at 1.3650, not far from current trading level. If it holds, next objective at 1.3550 might have a chance to stay intact for now. Short-term sentiment remains mixed while the pair continues to look for direction into a 250 points range. On the North side, resistance starts at 1.3730, followed by 1.3800/20 and 1.3850/60. Intra-day break above 1.3735 resumes uptrend. Current exchange rate is 1.3679 @06:50 GMT

Support: 1.3640/50, 1.3600/15 and 1.3550
Resistance: 1.3735, 1.3800/20, 1.3850/60 and 1.3900
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bearish, short term – mixed, intra-day – bearish

: EURUSD 4hrs chart 3-18-2010

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Daily analysis and trading strategies 3-17-10

Posted by Liviu on March 17, 2010 – 7:18AM GMT - 11194Leave your thoughts2010-03-17+07%3A18%3A38Liviu

Quote of the day: The only certain thing about the future is that it will surprise even those who have seen furthest into it. — Eric Hobsbawm

EURUSD

Trading strategy: standing aside

The euro flirts with the recent top side at $1.38, reaching some fresh highs, as the dollar was weaker across the board yesterday, losing ground to its major counter part currencies as a result of Fed keeping rates unchanged – suggesting there will be no change in the near future, along with better sentiment towards Greece. However, while below 1.3850, some would still throw large selling orders into the market – expecting the current upward move to be corrective only. Therefore, the ongoing break above 1.3800 which is the 61.8% of the last minor down leg from 1.4025 to 1.3445 may lead to further gains as minor dips will find support above the 1.3700 mark. I maintain my short-term bullish view for now, while not violating the 1.3650-1.37 support region, and will wait for a reasonable confirmation above 1.3860. Potential break above 1.3850 may bring the 1.39 in focus quite fast – accelerating on short covering. 1.3700/30 is the first intra-day support region to watch in case of pullback. My long @1.3655 was closed on reaching target at 1.3795 (+140 points gain). Current exchange rate is 1.3811 @07:15 GMT

Support: 1.3700/30, 1.3640/50, 1.3600/15 and 1.3550
Resistance: 1.3790/00, 1.3840/60 and 1.3900
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bearish, short term – slightly bullish, intra-day – bullish

: EURUSD 4hrs chart 3-17-2010

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Daily analysis and trading strategies 3-16-10

Posted by Liviu on March 16, 2010 – 7:08AM GMT - 111895 Comments2010-03-16+07%3A08%3A00Liviu

Quote of the day: It is impossible for a man to learn what he thinks he already knows. — Epictetus

EURUSD

Trading strategy: holding yesterday’s long @1.3655; will close at breakeven if downtrend resumes

1.3700 provides intra-day resistance on current recovery from 1.3640 – 61.8% of last week’s up leg, intra-day sentiment being slightly bullish at the time of writing these lines. However, today’s important events such as the German Zew Economic Sentiment at 11:00 GMT and the Fed Interest Rate Decision along with the FOMC Statement at 19:15 GMT may cause volatile moves. Meanwhile, upside is slightly favored ad gains may extend towards recent top at 1.3795 if yesterday’s decline was corrective in nature. Below 1.3640/50, next support levels emerge at 1.3600/15, 1.3550 and 1.3500. Below 1.3550 – downtrend should resume indicating that the gains to 1.3780/95 were part of a corrective cycle. Current exchange rate is 1.3685 @07:07 GMT

Support: 1.3640/50, 1.3600/15, 1.3550 and 1.3500
Resistance: 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3790/00, 1.3840/60 and 1.3900
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bearish, short term – slightly bullish, intra-day – slightly bullish

: EURUSD 4hrs chart 3-16-2010

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EURUSD, USDJPY and NZDUSD short term outlook 3-15-10

Posted by Liviu on March 15, 2010 – 7:58PM GMT - 11182Leave your thoughts2010-03-15+19%3A58%3A32Liviu

EURUSD

Currently sitting on the former resistance trend line coming from 1.3840 of February 9, the euro shows some uptrend perspective on a short term basis, but still being under selling pressure. Last week’s recovery along with the recent failed attempts on breaking lower below the 1.3450-1.3500 region suggest that a bottom might be in place and there’s still room to the upside towards notable technical barriers such as 1.3860 and 1.4. Important support around 1.3550 formed by last week’s bottom is where the euro should find reasonable bids to switch course, so that the current bias remains positive. According to the COT data, selling pressure continues to reach record levels after last week’s minor recovery. Here is an interesting yet controversial view of Goldman Sachs I came across recently – in short words: they recommend going long EURUSD with a target at 1.45 and stop below 1.35, as sentiment towards Greece improved. Time will tell if their view should be a contrarian indicator or a profitable call. Meanwhile, my view remains slightly bullish on the euro, while holding above 1.3550-1.36. I am currently long @1.3655 with stop at 1.3570 – 1% risk and will consider adding to the short-term position on a potential rebound above 1.3730, targeting 1.3850 first – and 1.4 later, while (again) short-term structure remains bullish. Upcoming important economic events that may have impact on EURUSD are: the German Zew Economic Sentiment tomorrow at 11:00 GMT and the Fed Interest Rate decision & FOMC Meeting Minutes at 19:15 GMT; Thursday’s US Consumer Price Index and Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT and Trichet’s speech on Friday, at 8:45 GMT. Current exchange rate is 1.3671 @19:58 GMT