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Dollar Recovering On Risk-Off Trade; Eyes on Bernanke

Posted by Liviu on October 18, 2011 – 7:10AM GMT - 158044 Comments2011-10-18+07%3A10%3A56Liviu

Quote of the day:“Doubt whom you will, but never yourself.” ~ Christine Bovee

Good morning. The euro changed course and declined after reaching a daily high at $1.3910 yesterday, but remains slightly bullish on short-term basis as recent recovery was quite strong. The German Zew and Bernanke’s speech later today are the most important events of the FX Calendar

EURUSD

As seen below – the pair is still above support formed around 1.3700 where it bounced last week, but it feels quite heavy so it seems a good idea to consider bearish opportunities while it holds below 1.3830/50 – either selling on a minor rally to 1.38 or on a break below 1.37

Euro vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 10-18-2011

Euro COT

According to latest COT data, there’s not a big change in short contracts yet, despite current recovery to 1.39

Euro COT 10-18-2011

AUDJPY

AUDJPY – the main risk barometer is following the EUR right now on more euro-zone worries. Next support zone is around 76.50 (more…)

- Continue reading: Dollar Recovering On Risk-Off Trade; Eyes on Bernanke

Euro Facing Resistance at 1.38

Posted by Liviu on October 14, 2011 – 7:12AM GMT - 157965 CommentsEuro+Facing+Resistance+at+1.382011-10-14+07%3A12%3A44Liviu

Quote of the day: “When it is not necessary to make a decision, it is necessary not to make a decision.” ~ Lord Falkland

Good morning. The euro is back to $1.3800 after pulling back on S&P’s downgrade of Spain, but $1.3700 provided support yesterday – as expected. Short-term studies remain bullish while the pair holds above 1.3650-1.3700 and resistance starts at 1.3800, followed by 1.3850 where’s the 50% retracement of last down leg from 1.4550 to 1.3150. More important resistance is seen above these two levels – at 1.400 (former support and psychological/round barrier). Given recent dollar weakness, it shouldn’t be too hard to test 1.400 next week. The US Retail Sales data is the most important release of the FX Calendar today.

EURUSD

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-14-2011

As you can see in the 4-hrs chart below, the pair is forming a consolidation range between 1.37 and 1.38. Exiting the range on either side could be considered a trade opportunity

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 10-14-2011

AUDJPY

it’s been a while since the 62% fib resistance is being tested, so it doesn’t look like a correction anymore, but rather a minor consolidation before rallying higher. Buying on the break above yesterday’s top looks like a good plan

Australian Dollar Vs Japanese Yen Chart Daily 10-14-2011

AUDNZD

The Aussie dollar is holding gains against the Kiwi after breaking above 1.2800 resistance yesterday. It’s probably best to consider the bullish scenarios right now, as the cross seems set for more upside

Australian Dollar Vs New Zealand Dollar Chart Daily 10-14-2011

USDCAD

1.0250 provided a new selling opportunity as the pullback was short-lived, but we’re still above support formed around 1.0150. In case price pulls back again and because it is Friday, and Friday charts are usually either strange or dollar positive – I doubt that 1.0250 will hold. I remain bearish for now but won’t sell on a new rally. Not today

US Dollar Vs Canadian Dollar Chart Daily 10-14-2011

Enjoy your weekend!

- Continue reading: Euro Facing Resistance at 1.38

Risk-On Trade Continues, Breakouts All Over the Charts

Posted by Liviu on October 13, 2011 – 7:26AM GMT - 157841 Comment2011-10-13+07%3A26%3A55Liviu

Quote of the day:“If you can’t do what you want, do what you can.” ~ Lois McMaster Bujold

Good morning. It’s been a volatile day in the markets yesterday as the dollar continues to lose ground against its most counterparts. The setups discussed yesterday played out nicely – but let’s see what story are the charts trying to tell us today

EURUSD

Euro’s recovery continues and resistance around 1.400 acts like a magnet. Short-term bias is bullish and in case of an intraday pullback, I’m expecting 1.3700 to provide support.

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-13-2011

USDCAD

It looks that a correction is due, in which case it’s best to wait for a test of 1.0250-1.0300 before deciding whether more selling is a good idea. I remain bearish on USDCAD – looking for fresh selling opportunities in the said range of 1.0250-1.0300 or on a new breakdown, below today’s opening price.

US Dollar Vs Canadian Dollar Chart Daily 10-13-2011

AUDUSD

Breaking above parity was easy – but let’s see if the Aussie dollar is able to hold gains now. Minor resistance is near current trading levels, at the 62% retracement value of last down leg. If it pulls back from here, then parity is where to consider new buying opportunities

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-13-2011

AUDJPY

77.00 was the key resistance here, now it should provide support. Next upside barrier is around the falling trendline connecting recent lower highs.

Australian Dollar Vs Japanese Yen Chart Daily 10-13-2011

The weekly AUDJPY chart is also interesting, as we’re dealing with a reversal candle (as discussed a few days ago)

Australian Dollar Vs Japanese Yen Chart Weekly 10-13-2011

GBPUSD

More or less the same story here – trading at higher levels, but not confirming a new floor. More upside is likely, but we should be cautious about a potential correction soon

British Pound Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-13-2011

AUDNZD

This is another nice setup: as you can see below, resistance provided by recent top has been cleared and the Aussie seems likely to continue strengthening against the NZD

Australian Dollar Vs New Zealand Dollar Chart Daily 10-13-2011

Have a great day!

- Continue reading: Risk-On Trade Continues, Breakouts All Over the Charts

Euro Holding Gains Below Interim Resistance

Posted by Liviu on October 12, 2011 – 6:40AM GMT - 157776 Comments2011-10-12+06%3A40%3A52Liviu

Quote of the day: “When the water reaches the upper level, follow the rats.” ~ Claude Swanson

Good morning. The euro still holds gains trading in a narrow range a few points below Monday’s top near $1.3700. Overall short-term sentiment is bullish as long as the pair holds above 1.3500. Recent intraday pullbacks towards 1.3575/00 have been short-lived, therefore selling at these levels is not the best thing to do right now. Key events of the FX Calendar today are the FOMC Meeting Minutes and Trichet’s speech.

EURUSD

As you can see in the chart below, interim resistance around 1.37 is still under pressure but a more notable barrier stands around 1.400

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-12-2011

USDCAD

US Dollar’s weakness remains intact and it seems that more downside is likely – towards parity where important support is formed.

US Dollar Vs Canadian Dollar Chart Daily 10-12-2011

AUDUSD

Not much changed since yesterday as resistance remains intact but the pullbacks are short-lived, therefore keeping an eye on resistance at 1.00 – considering new buying opportunities is probably the best thing to do for now.