EURUSD

Trading strategy: small short at 1.4365, stop at 1.4415 (0.5% risk), 1st objective at 1.4315, 2nd objective at 1.4265

Yesterday’s recovery has been (once again) short-lived and the euro failed to stabilize above 1.4340/50 in order to gain positive momentum and test the notable barrier formed by the downward trend line coming from 1.5140 – seen around the 1.4400 handle yesterday, now lower – around 1.4360. Therefore, potential rallies would bring the said resistance in focus within the 1.4350-1.4370 range later today. Current downward cycle has been influenced also by the losses in gold, which slipped below 1100 – 61.8% retracement of last up leg from 1026 to 1226. My yesterday’s small long at 1.4360 strategy has been part of a too optimistic scenario, hence the expectation to see euro finding support above 1.4350 and test (or even break out above) the mentioned downward trend line around 1.4400 has failed – the result being -50 pips. The fast sell-off confirms the strength of current down trend and more selling is likely to emerge, short-term sentiment remaining negative while the pair trades below the $1.4700 handle. Current exchange rate is 1.4291 @06:25 GMT

Support: 1.4250/70, 1.4200 and 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4350/70, 1.4400, 1.4470/90 and 1.4530
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – slightly bullish, short term – bearish, intra-day – slightly bearish

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- Continue reading: Daily analysis and trading strategies 12-22-09

EURUSD

Trading strategy: small long at 1.4360, stop at 1.4310 (0.5% risk), 1st objective at 1.4400, 2nd objective at 1.4480.

Support on the 1.4300 handle has been stable so far but the euro has yet to breach the downward trend line coming from 1.5140 – now around 1.4410, in order to initiate an extended recovery. While below the said resistance – downside bias remains valid. In the hourly studies there is a minor bullish divergence – as seen in the chart below, formed between last two trading days lows and it suggests a potential recovery. Intra-day sentiment is slightly bullish at the time of writing this but would switch side on a break down below 1.4300. If it holds and the euro will manage to break above 1.4400 – extended gains would be favored towards the 1.46-1.47 region within the coming days. Current exchange rate is 1.4340 @07:20 GMT

Support: 1.4300/05, 1.4250/70 and 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4400, 1.4470/90 and 1.4530
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – slightly bullish, short term – bearish, intra-day – slightly bullish

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- Continue reading: Daily analysis and trading strategies 12-21-09

Quote of the day: A sly rabbit will have three openings to its den. — Chinese Proverb

EURUSD

Trading strategy: short at 1.4470, stop at 1.4520 (1% risk), 1st objective at 1.4420, 2nd objective at 1.4370

Euro’s weakness remains high as its decline extended through yesterday’s all three trading sessions, reaching a fresh 3 months low at 1.4305. Since the 1.4305 is also the 161.8% retracement level of the 1.4625-1.5145 up leg / November’s range – a minor correction is occurring at the time of writing this – which is probably driven by profit taking on reaching the said level along with some risky optimism on bulls side. However, downside pressure is unchanged as odds favor further selling, especially weak rallies – therefore, could be worth watching the falling trend line coming from 1.5140 which is now seen around 1.4470. Intra-day sentiment is slightly bullish while the short-term studies are negative – a sustained break above 1.4600/30 being needed as a first confirmation of a potential uptrend resumption. In the very next period (next two trading sessions), it’s unlikely that the euro will get that far. Current exchange rate is 1.4384 @06:55 GMT

Support: 1.4300/05, 1.4250 and 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4400, 1.4470/90 and 1.4530
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – slightly bullish, short term – bearish, intra-day – slightly bullish

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- Continue reading: Daily analysis and trading strategies 12-18-09

Quote of the day: The time to buy is when blood is running in the streets. — Baron Nathan Rothschild

EURUSD

Trading strategy: short at 1.4530, stop at 1.4570 (1% risk), 1st objective at 1.5590, 2nd objective at 1.4430.

Euro’s free fall continued through the Asian session, reaching a 3 months low at $1.4368. Yesterday’s intra-day resistance into the 1.4585/00 region formed by a falling trend line coming from 1.5140 along with the 61.8% of Tuesday’s range has provided a stable barrier and bears regained control. No reaction on 1.4550/65 support region which I thought that could have limit losses for a while, though – hence confirming how strong current decline is – with euro down 4% this month. In case of setting a bottom here, around the 1.4400 mark – first important resistance is provided by the mentioned downward trend line from 1.5140 – which is now seen around 1.4530. Above that, 1.4600/35 comes next – while on the downside, 1.4330/50 could provide support. Overall bearish sentiment is stronger since euro missed yet another good chance to extend gains yesterday, therefore selling into minor rallies seem to be the way to go, for now. Current exchange rate is 1.4407 @07:03 GMT

Support: 1.4400, 1.4370, 1.4330/50 and 1.4300
Resistance: 1.4500, 1.4530/50, 1.4585/00 and 1.4630/50
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – slightly bullish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bearish

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- Continue reading: Daily analysis and trading strategies 12-17-09

Quote of the day: The worse a situation becomes, the less it takes to turn it around, the bigger the upside — George Soros

EURUSD

Trading strategy: short at 1.4680, stop at 1.4740 (1% risk), 1st objective at 1.4620, 2nd objective at 1.4560

Offers around the 1.4550 level are being tested at the time of writing this, recovering 50 points which is one third of yesterday’s losses – less than required to confirm the beginning of a prolonged recovery. While the ongoing euro’s recovery continues – important upside barriers to watch are set at 1.4585/00 – downward trend line coming from 1.5140 along with the 61.8% of yesterday’s range – where a potential breach would open the next notable barrier around 1.4680/00 – last week’s bottom which became resistance since Friday’s break down. In case of decline’s extension – 1.4450/65 comes next, below 1.4500. Upside is slightly favored for now, but only on hourly basis. Extended rallies could face strong selling into the 1.46-1.47 range. Interest rate decision in the U.S. later today may also cause some volatile moves, as well providing clues on upcoming market direction. Current exchange rate is 1.4550 @07:10 GMT

Support: 1.4500, 1.4450/65 and 1.4400
Resistance: 1.4585/00, 1.4650 and 1.4700
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – slightly bullish, short term – bearish, intra-day – slightly bullish

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- Continue reading: Daily analysis and trading strategies 12-16-09