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Risk-On Game Continues

Posted by Liviu on October 11, 2011 – 7:30AM GMT - 15762Leave your thoughtsRisk-On+Game+Continues2011-10-11+07%3A30%3A12Liviu

Quote of the day:“The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history” ~ Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Good morning. The euro enjoys a rebound as a result of world markets starting the week strong after France and Germany pledged to deliver a plan to support the banking sector. Trichet’s speech is the main highlight of the FX Calendar today.

USD Index

Correction is still underway and it seems that it’s not ending yet, therefore recent top around 76 is where to look for next support

USD Index Chart Daily 10-11-2011

EURUSD

There are no signs of weakness yet so it’s best to wait if you’re looking for selling opportunities. On the other hand, recent rally was quite strong so there’s a good chance that support around 1.3550 will hold for now, so either buying dips or on a break above 1.3680/00 could be a good idea

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 10-11-2011

GBPUSD

Yesterday’s plan to buy on strength is still valid as cable holds gains near resistance and it seems that a breakout is likely

British Pound Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-11-2011

USDCAD

Correction or not – it still feels heavy as expected and Friday’s pin bar proved to be a false signal for the bulls, as price continues to push lower, now testing interim support – as seen in the 4-hrs chart below

US Dollar Vs Canadian Dollar Chart Daily 10-11-2011

4hrs:

US Dollar Vs Canadian Dollar Chart 4hrs 10-11-2011

AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar setup looks good, too: parity level is currently providing resistance and a potential break should provide yet another opportunity to join the bulls on this recovery run.

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-11-2011

Have a great day!

- Continue reading: Risk-On Game Continues

Euro Resumes Correction as Merkel, Sarkozy Reach Agreement

Posted by Liviu on October 10, 2011 – 5:56AM GMT - 157514 Comments2011-10-10+05%3A56%3A38Liviu

Quote of the day: “There’s no sense in being precise when you don’t even know what you’re talking about.” ~ John von Neumann

Good morning. The euro is climbing towards Friday’s top as the leaders of France and Germany said they have reached an agreement on strengthening Europe’s banking sector – and the European leaders would deliver a plan by the Group of 20, on November 3. Market’s reaction is optimistic but let’s throw up some charts and see what to expect in the coming days:

EURUSD

The trendline connecting recent lower highs is still intact as price pulled back on Friday, but the euro holds gains quite well and it appears that a break of said resistance is likely. Short-term sellers seem to be in stand-by mode

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 10-10-2011

… while longer term sellers are in control:

Euro COT 10-10-2011

Dollar Index

Keep an eye on support around 78 while it’s being tested. The movement still looks corrective

USD Index Chart Daily 10-10-2011

USDCAD

Selling after forming the reversal candle at 1.0600 was a really good plan but now we have a warning sign formed on Friday. Anyway, price is already retesting recent lows so I think that selling is still the best thing to do

US Dollar Vs Canadian Dollar Chart Daily 10-10-2011

GBPUSD

Cable is back around 1.5650 where upside was capped recently but it seems that a breakout is just around the corner, therefore it’s worth to consider a buying opportunity on the potential break above 1.5650

British Pound Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-10-2011

AUDUSD

There’s probably more upside for the Aussie dollar as the recovery continues, but the ground is still fragile while below parity.

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-10-2011

have a great day!

- Continue reading: Euro Resumes Correction as Merkel, Sarkozy Reach Agreement

Dollar Still in Corrective Mode

Posted by Liviu on October 7, 2011 – 7:29AM GMT - 15741Leave your thoughtsDollar+Still+in+Corrective+Mode2011-10-07+07%3A29%3A21Liviu

Quote of the day: “The real problem is not whether machines think but whether men do.” ~ B. F. Skinner

Good morning. Dollar’s correction continues as the euro recovers from fresh multi-month lows, catching a bid against most counterparts. Here are some of today’s charts of interest:

USD Index

As seen in the chart below, bias is still bullish and current decline from 80 is likely corrective.

US Dollar Index Chart Daily 10-7-2011

EURUSD

Resistance around 1.3400 is currently providing intraday support and a test of the falling trendline resistance which is connecting previous lower highs is in the cards. Selling on a failed test of the said resistance is a plan to consider right now.

Euro Vs Dollar Chart 4hrs Chart Daily 10-7-2011

USDCAD

Support around 1.0300 mentioned in my report yesterday is under pressure as the sell-off continues. A potential break of the said barrier would provide yet another bearish confirmation

US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar Chart Daily 10-7-2011

AUDUSD

Aussie’s recovery goes well and there are some more buying opportunities to consider, apart from yesterday’s breakout of .9700. I think that a test of resistance at parity is just around the corner.

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-7-2011

AUDJPY

Today’s close is likely to provide a decent buying signal (longer term basis), as support formed by the bottom of 2010 holds – so far.

Australian Dollar Vs Japanese Yen Chart Weekly 10-7-2011

Silver

Silver is still fragile but recent established support around 31 is one level to consider if you plan to join the bulls.

Silver Chart Daily 10-7-2011

Have a great weekend!

- Continue reading: Dollar Still in Corrective Mode

Dollar Retreating, Markets Waiting for ECB

Posted by Liviu on October 6, 2011 – 5:16AM GMT - 157342 Comments2011-10-06+05%3A16%3A03Liviu

Quote of the day:“I think if you do something and it turns out pretty good, then you should go do something else wonderful, not dwell on it for too long. Just figure out what’s next.” ~ Steve Jobs

Good morning. The market is quiet before the ECB rate decision and the press conference later today – other important event of the FX calendar being the Initial Jobless Claims. Let’s take a look at some charts to get a better feel and see if there are any new opportunities:

EURUSD

Daily studies are still bearish as we’re not far away from recent bottom and pressure is likely to remain high. I think that selling is still the best thing to do, but not yet, as bearish signals are not visible and the current recovery is not over.

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-6-2011

USDCAD

The selling setup I noted in my report yesterday is still in play and looks very good. It’s probably only a correction but there’s still a lot more room to the downside. Keep an eye on support zone around 1.0300 – if it breaks, then the recent top around parity level is the next target to consider

US Dollar Vs Canadian Dollar Chart Daily 10-6-2011

EURCAD

Same story here: another good looking reversal. It is currently testing support, as seen below, and a breakdown would probably accelerate the decline towards 1.36-1.37. Selling on more weakness is the best option, in my opinion (more…)

- Continue reading: Dollar Retreating, Markets Waiting for ECB

Euro Recovers, Still Below Resistance

Posted by Liviu on October 5, 2011 – 7:29AM GMT - 157253 CommentsEuro+Recovers%2C+Still+Below+Resistance2011-10-05+07%3A29%3A34Liviu

Quote of the day: “There is no security on this earth, there is only opportunity.” ~ General Douglas MacArthur

Good morning. Monday’s opening price which is providing resistance is currently being tested as the euro recovered some ground, but the daily charts remain bearish as long as there are several resistance layers above current trading zone. The 4-hrs charts are slightly bullish right now and we should keep an eye on this resistance range between 1.3350 and 1.3400:

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 10-5-2011

Current recovery looks like a normal correction, thus looking for new selling opportunities on signs of weakness is probably the best bet for now.

EURGBP

As seen below, the cross is approaching resistance around the 50% retracement value of last up leg. Daily charts are still bearish but in case of a break above this resistance at .8650, buyers may have a good reason to push it higher

Euro Vs British Pound Chart 4hrs 10-5-2011

EURJPY

The correction continues after the cross reached a 10-year low but it’s a fragile ground, so in case it retests support around 101.70, selling on the breakdown seems a good option. To the upside, resistance resides around 102.75 and 103.30 (61.8% of recent decline) (more…)

- Continue reading: Euro Recovers, Still Below Resistance

Risk-On Game Continues

Euro Resumes Correction as Merkel, Sarkozy Reach Agreement

Dollar Still in Corrective Mode

Dollar Retreating, Markets Waiting for ECB

Euro Recovers, Still Below Resistance

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