EURUSD

Euro’s correlation to the S&P 500 has been lost since a few days ago when the S&P 500 reversed at 1086 but euro went the opposite way, not following to the upside. The correlation to gold remained higher, though – but since both gold and euro face downside pressure nowadays, lower objectives may be reached – such as the 1100 barrier in gold and 1.4450/65 in euro. I will watch the 1.4450/65 support zone closely if we get there, as it may provide a stable bottom – being the 61.8% of 1.4045-1.5145 and also a former resistance until September’s break out. Medium term momentum is also losing strength – not enough (yet) to confirm a longer term reversal, while we’re still above the last year’s ending range around the 1.4 mark. Euro’s loss this month is not negligible – down 3.25% so far, erasing most of previous two months’ gains – but keep in mind it comes after 5 positive months in a row – nothing spectacular in that, hence my current view that current drop is likely to be corrective only. I’ll post updates of my short-term view, depending on market conditions.

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- Continue reading: Short-term outlook (12/15-12/25)

Quote of the day: If I’m going to do something, I do it spectacularly or I don’t do it at all. — Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Alsaud

EURUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

Euro started the week into a narrow range of 90 points yesterday, support at $1.4600 being intact, still. Since it couldn’t climb too high, into a safer zone such as the 1.47-1.48 region – downside pressure remains high, near term resistance being set around $1.4700 on first phase, followed by a more notable barrier at 1.4775 and into the 1.4850-1.4900 range – which may provide a key point in refreshing euro’s sell-off. Short term momentum remains in a bearish configuration as a sustained break above the mentioned 1.4850-1.4900 zone is needed to confirm a reversal. If selling intensifies – then 1.4450/65 will probably come on the radar. Personally I’d prefer a bullish scenario – so I am in a cautious stance, waiting for a confirmation of uptrend resumption – the S&P 500 is recovering and recent top side is under pressure, but EUR seem quite lazy to follow. We’ll see if the German ZEW will be a catalyst – throwing the flame needed for euro’s takeoff. Current exchange rate is 1.4641 @07:30 GMT

Support levels: 1.4600, 1.4550, 1.4500 and 1.4450/65
Resistance levels: 1.4700, 1.4775/00, 1.4850/00 and 1.5000
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bullish, short term – bearish, intra-day – neutral

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- Continue reading: Daily analysis and trading strategies 12-15-09

Quote of the day: Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others. –John Maynard Keynes

Sorry for not posting any article last Friday, I had some problems with my Internet connection in the hotel – but now I’m back to my good old and reliable desktop PC.

EURUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

The single currency continues to face downside pressure against the dollar, breaching below interim support at 1.4700 last week, extending losses to 1.4600 – notable barrier formed by the 50% retracement level of the 1.4045-1.5145 upward move from August’s low to November’s/YTD peak. Being down 2.25% for this month – overall bias is negative and a sustained recovery needs to clear the 1.4850/1.49 region resistance. Intra-day sentiment is slightly positive and the former support at 1.4700 is expected to provide a minor resistance for now. In case of decline’s continuation below 1.4600 – next barrier is seen around 1.4465 which is the 61.8% of the mentioned up leg from 1.4045 to 1.5145. Current exchange rate is 1.4664 @07:00 GMT

Support levels: 1.4600, 1.4550, 1.4500 and 1.4450/65
Resistance levels: 1.4700, 1.4800, 1.4850/00 and 1.5000
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bullish, short term – bearish, intra-day – slightly bullish

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- Continue reading: Daily analysis and trading strategies 12-14-09

EURUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

EUR found support right on the 1.4700 handle after it continued to drop for 180 points. Since there are no signs of a recovery yet as the euro continues to push on the 1.4700 mark – extended weakness is likely, next support being formed around 1.4600. Both short-term and intra-day studies are bearish and a breach above 1.4850 is needed to provide a viable clue that the pair could switch direction back to the upside. Current exchange rate is 1.4718 @07:24 GMT

Support: 1.4650, 1.4600 and 1.4550
Resistance: 1.4750, 1.4835/50 and 1.4900

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- Continue reading: Daily outlook in fewer words 12-09-09