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Markets Waiting for Jackson Hole Comments

Posted by Liviu on August 26, 2011 – 6:52AM GMT - 154378 Comments2011-08-26+06%3A52%3A40Liviu

Quote of the day: “We are never deceived; we deceive ourselves” ~ Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

Good morning. The big day is here as all eyes are on Bernanke at the Jackson Hole later today. Everyone is wondering whether he will hint of a third round of quantitative easing or similar measures. Except a few currency pairs and precious metals, the market has been rather choppy this week.

Here’s what to watch out for now:

EURUSD

Still consolidating in a range, finding support on the rising trendline which is connecting recent higher lows. Resistance around 1.4500 providing selling opportunities on rallies

Euro Vs US Dollar 4hrs Chart 8-26-2011

AUDUSD

As mentioned in my recent reports such as yesterday’s, I remain bullish on AUDUSD while carefully watching support near 1.0400. As long as we hold above, the Aussie has a good chance to break higher above 1.0500, following the equity indices; and Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole is likely to have a strong impact on equity markets, therefore AUDUSD. So the plan here is to hold long while being ready to reverse position on the potential breakdown below 1.0400

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar Daily Chart 8-26-2011

EURCHF

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Cable Breaking Lower; Metals Retreating; Euro Testing Resistance

Posted by Liviu on August 25, 2011 – 7:03AM GMT - 154281 Comment2011-08-25+07%3A03%3A10Liviu

Quote of the day:“The trouble with our times is that the future is not what it used to be” ~ Paul Valery

Good morning. Most currency pairs, such as EURUSD, are still ranging, while most eyes are on precious metals which are retreating from recent top zones. Cable is moving nicely after providing us several clues that a decline is in the cards – as highlighted in my latest posts (here, here and here). The US Initial Jobless Claims is the most important event in the FX Calendar today.

Now let’s watch some charts and see what’s worth our attention these days:

GBPUSD

Former support at 1.6450/75 should provide resistance now, if price pulls back to the upside after yesterday’s decline, so 1.6450 is where to look for new selling opportunities

Pound Vs US Dollar Daily Chart 8-25-2011

EURUSD

Euro is still pushing on resistance at 1.4500 where it is facing offers. Until we break out of this range, it’s probably best to focus on different instruments. Fading rallies are still the “better” bets if you look for selling opportunities

Euro Vs US Dollar 4hrs Chart 8-25-2011

AUDUSD

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Euro Keeps Pushing But Is Facing Resistance

Posted by Liviu on August 24, 2011 – 7:12AM GMT - 15420Leave your thoughts2011-08-24+07%3A12%3A48Liviu

Quote of the day:“The trouble with facts is that there are so many of them.” ~ Samuel McChord Crothers

Good morning. There are whipsaws everywhere in the EURUSD charts (hourly, 4-hrs, daily) as the pair continues to push towards 1.45 but finds resistance in the 1.4450-1.4500 region. Selling on rallies is still a viable option and recent top side at 1.4500 seems a good level to look for rally exhaustion signs if more gains would occur in the next sessions. The German Ifo is one of today’s key events in the Calendar.

Let’s draw some charts and see if there are important changes since yesterday:

EURUSD

Euro Vs US Dollar 4hrs Chart 8-24-2011

GBPUSD

Now we have two reversal bars around 1.6570 but cable still holds above support zone. It might be a good idea to wait for a decline below 1.6450 support zone before joining the bears.

Pound Vs US Dollar Daily Chart 8-24-2011

CHFJPY

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Gold at New Record While Most Currencies Are Looking for Directions

Posted by Liviu on August 23, 2011 – 4:52AM GMT - 15409Leave your thoughts2011-08-23+04%3A52%3A47Liviu

Quote of the day:“Mistakes are the portals of discovery.” ~ James Joyce

Good morning. Most charts are little change from yesterday, with EURUSD staying in the range of 1.4350-1.4430. Selling on rallies towards 1.4450 has been one of the best things to do lately and right now there’s no clue that we’re going to see a break out of this range in the next trading sessions. Meanwhile, metals are drawing the most attention as Gold is over $1900 and Silver continues to push to the upside – now above former resistance at 43 (61.8% of 49.75 to 32.30). The German Zew and New Home Sales are today’s notable events in the FX Calendar.

Here are today’s charts of interest – maybe they look a bit blurred but you can click on them to enlarge

EURUSD

still into a narrow range but it will probably exit soon; preferably to the downside, as there’s more difficult to advance far North

Euro Vs US Dollar 4hrs Chart 8-23-2011

Silver

Silver Daily Chart 8-23-2011

Gold

Some people are still waiting for a large correction in order to jump in – buying at better levels. Well, judging by how it looks – there are no “better levels” but rather “any levels”. Corrections are just too small… maybe the $2000 handle is where to look for the next leg down

Gold Daily Chart 8-23-2011

GBPUSD

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EURUSD Retracing From 1.4450

Posted by Liviu on August 22, 2011 – 7:09AM GMT - 15399Leave your thoughtsEURUSD+Retracing+From+1.44502011-08-22+07%3A09%3A19Liviu

Quote of the day:“If I had to live my life again, I’d make the same mistakes, only sooner.” ~ Tallulah Bankhead

Good morning. The week starts with euro pushing on intraday support formed by the median retrace value of Friday’s rally, at 1.4350 – see hourly chart below. I reiterate my view that it’s probably best to sell on rallies and weakness, as noted in my Friday report. In case you missed it – some interesting setups, including a quick analysis of EURUSD, are shared in my previous report – posted yesterday. Now let’s take a look at the hourly charts to see what to expect in the next trading sessions:

Euro Vs US Dollar Hourly Chart 8-22-2011

As you can see above, recent rallies towards 1.4450-1.45 have been sold. Since we are testing support right now, it’s best to wait for the market reaction and either sell on break of support or buy if support here will be confirmed. Personally I’d prefer the short scenario but it’s worth to consider the buying alternative if this is only a correction.

EURGBP

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Markets Waiting for Jackson Hole Comments

Cable Breaking Lower; Metals Retreating; Euro Testing Resistance

Euro Keeps Pushing But Is Facing Resistance

Gold at New Record While Most Currencies Are Looking for Directions

EURUSD Retracing From 1.4450

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