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Dollar Retreating, Euro Testing Resistance Zone

Posted by Liviu on January 18, 2012 – 8:07AM GMT - 162891 Comment2012-01-18+08%3A07%3A26Liviu

Never believe anything until it has been officially denied. ~ Claud Cockburn

Good morning. Dollar pulls back from recent top as EUR recovers towards $1.28, but uptrend remains intact and strong, so it’s most likely only a corrective cycle until the next round of bad news coming from Europe hits. Here’s a daily dose of charts to watch

USD Index

As seen below, former resistance is now acting as support around 81. Even if the dollar would eventually fall below 81, uptrend should stay intact

Dollar Index Chart Daily 1-18-2012

EURUSD

The whole 1.28-1.29 range is forming a resistance zone and it’s being tested for the second time in two weeks

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 1-18-2012

Aggressive counter-trend traders are probably looking for a breach into 1.28-1.29 zone on the 4hrs chart: (more…)

- Continue reading: Dollar Retreating, Euro Testing Resistance Zone

Dollar Up on Eurozone Downgrades, Euro Drops Further

Posted by Liviu on January 16, 2012 – 8:05AM GMT - 16277Leave your thoughts2012-01-16+08%3A05%3A54Liviu

Confidence is 10% hard work and 90% delusion. ~ Tina Fey

Good morning. Euro fell further against its counterparts as S&P downgraded France, Austria, Italy and Spain by one notch, but it kept Germany’s AAA rating level.

USD Index

It seems that last consolidation cycle has come to an end as the dollar rallied on S&P’s downgrade. More upside is likely and it’s probably best to buy dips as long as there is no sign of trend exhaustion

USD Index Chart Daily 1-16-2012

EURUSD

Euro had a good chance to extend the recovery above $1.29 which was under pressure on Friday’s European trading session but S&P’s downgrade triggered a strong selling. The entire 1.28-1.29 zone is now providing resistance, so keep an eye on it if euro recovers.

Euro VS US Dollar Chart Daily 1-16-2012

Silver

The recovery is intact although silver pulled back on Friday. Intraday charts still look bearish but the daily suggests more bullishness on a short-term basis. However, recovery is still very weak if we compare current upside range to September’s sell-off (more…)

- Continue reading: Dollar Up on Eurozone Downgrades, Euro Drops Further

EUR Recovers, Resistance Under Pressure

Posted by Liviu on January 13, 2012 – 8:07AM GMT - 162464 Comments2012-01-13+08%3A07%3A19Liviu

“Good judgment comes from experience, and often experience comes from bad judgment.” ~ Rita Mae Brown

Good morning. I’ve been away with limited access to the internet for the past three days, but looking at current charts, I don’t seem to have missed much. However, things are likely to become interesting

USD Index

Dollar is pulling back from recent top, retesting support around 80.50. The decline is rather corrective and uptrend should remain intact while the dollar holds above a support cluster around the 78 handle.

USD Index Chart Daily 1-13-2012

EURUSD

Those who’ve been waiting for an euro recovery are finally enjoying some relief as the single currency is pushing towards former support at $1.29, where we also have the downward trenline which is connecting recent lower highs, as seen below. Although I remain bearish on EUR and believe that selling on strength is still the best bet, I’d prefer to see the EUR higher from these levels. Meanwhile, buying on the potential break of 1.2900 is a plan to consider – but only if ready to join the bears on the very next selling opportunity.

Euro VS US Dollar Chart Daily 1-13-2012

the recovery is easier to spot on the 4hrs chart

Euro VS US Dollar Chart 4hrs 1-13-2012

Silver

The bull flag formation highlighted one week ago was valid and silver exited the range to the upside, breaking above 29.70-30 resistance. As seen in the recent trading sessions, support holds quite well, so holding long is a good plan

Silver Chart 4hrs 1-13-2012

EURAUD

Despite this week’s decline to 1.23, EUR made a strong come-back, returning in the 1.24-1.25 range. Intraday studies and 4hrs charts are now bullish, so I for one am expecting the recovery to continue, breaking above 1.25 eventually – as per my previous post.

Euro Vs Australian Dollar Chart 4hrs 1-13-2012

AUDJPY

Another interesting setup is the AUDJPY, as it is still in range but pushing on the upside barrier. Buying on the break above 79.50-80 is tempting

Australian Dollar Vs Japanese Yen Chart Daily 1-13-2012

Have a great day!

- Continue reading: EUR Recovers, Resistance Under Pressure

Dollar Pulls Back, Strong Uptrend Remains Intact

Posted by Liviu on January 9, 2012 – 8:08AM GMT - 16235Leave your thoughts2012-01-09+08%3A08%3A24Liviu

“Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.” ~ Voltaire

Good morning. A fresh multi-month low has been reached by EUR against USD at $1.2665 before pulling back to $.12720 at time of writing. Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy meet today in Berlin to finalise a deal to increase fiscal coordination and discuss ways to boost growth in euro zone states in order to overcome the sovereign debt crisis.

USD Index

The dollar is trading comfortably in the 81 area after last week’s rally. Dips are likely to be well supported as more buyers are probably waiting to see bids in the 80.50-81.00 region.

USD Index Chart Daily 1-9-2012

EURUSD

Seems that a minor correction is underway. First decent resistance zone is seen between 1.2850 and 1.29.

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 1-9-2012

Latest COT reports show record short EUR bias (more…)

- Continue reading: Dollar Pulls Back, Strong Uptrend Remains Intact

NFP Day is Here

Posted by Liviu on January 6, 2012 – 8:41AM GMT - 162213 CommentsNFP+Day+is+Here2012-01-06+08%3A41%3A04Liviu

“There is no safety in numbers, or in anything else.” ~ James Thurber

Good morning. The NFP day is here – consensus being a figure around 150k while the unemployment rate is expected to print 8.7% (see FX Calendar). The dollar just keeps climbing higher amid euro’s sell-off, as fresh multi-month lows are reached almost on a daily basis.

USD Index

Dollar is out of the consolidation range as it just exited to the upside yesterday. The breakout suggests more upside but don’t rule out a correction towards the middle of yesterday’s candle – momentum would remain intact.

USD Index Daily 1-6-2012

EURUSD

As mentioned yesterday – selling into rallies and/or more weakness is the best bet these days. But one should see a big warning sign when short EUR becomes the most obvious trade, when most banks/advisory services are telling clients to sell EUR: be it official news, unexpected or rumor mill events – it happened before and will happen again – wiping all short-term shorts in a downtrend every now and then is part of the game. I’m not saying it’s a good idea to buy it, but rather be more careful than usual while holding short, as a correction could be just around the corner.

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 1-6-2012

AUDJPY

Recovery loses steam but current sell-off seems corrective. Perhaps today’s NFP/unemployment data will help the AUD pushing upwards.

Australian Dollar Vs Japanese Yen Chart Daily 1-6-2012

USDCHF

Now that the USDCHF is out of the range highlighted in my previous post, things are looking even better for the bulls after such a strong move. If a correction is due, support should be formed around .9450

US Dollar Vs Swiss Franc Chart 4hrs 1-6-2012

Silver

Silver continues to consolidate in a tight range below resistance at 30. Buying on the potential break of the said resistance remains a plan to consider.

Silver Chart Daily 1-6-2012

Ongoing consolidation looks like a bull flag on the 4hrs chart:

Silver Chart 4hrs 1-6-2012

Have a great day and happy trading!

- Continue reading: NFP Day is Here

Dollar Retreating, Euro Testing Resistance Zone

Dollar Up on Eurozone Downgrades, Euro Drops Further

EUR Recovers, Resistance Under Pressure

Dollar Pulls Back, Strong Uptrend Remains Intact

NFP Day is Here

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