Patience has its limits. Take it too far, and it’s cowardice. ~ George Jackson
Good morning. Death of Kim Jong Il is the hottest topic today and it is influencing the currency market, as the dollar strengthened across the board in the Asian trading session. The euro continues to orbit around 1.300 against the dollar ahead of ECB Draghi’s speech a bit later today and remains vulnerable to more rating downgrades.
Here’s a couple of charts to start the week
USD Index
Uptrend is intact as the buck holds above recent top barrier. More upside is expected
Here’s something to think about: How come you never see a headline like ‘Psychic Wins Lottery’? ~ Jay Leno
Good morning. Euro recovered some ground after sliding to as low as $1.2945 two days ago, but the move is likely corrective and there’s more room for it to move higher.
USD Index
As seen below – current pullbacks is rather corrective and it should be interesting to watch how recent resistance will react to a potential test
It’s not the voting that’s democracy, it’s the counting. ~ Tom Stoppard
Good morning. Euro’s sell-off continues in risk-off trade after yesterday’s Fed statement and remains under pressure ahead of bond auctions in Europe.
USD Index
Horizontal resistance has been breached, so it’s time to see whether the dollar will hold above the said barrier which should provide support. Should the former resistance provide support around 80, then EURUSD would face a new selling point in the 1.3100-1.3150 zone
USD Index Chart Daily 12-14-2011
EURUSD
Bears’ main target at 1.300 was reached, now what? Well, although it holds – it’s not convincing. Which means that there aren’t many buyers here, so if you’re one of those expecting a huge bounce – you’d better be careful. I remain bearish on EURUSD and will look for new selling opportunities if it pulls back to 1.3100/50 or sell on breakdown / on a violent movement below 1.300
Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 12-14-2011
AUDJPY
Selling risk is one of the best bets nowadays. Support at 78 is under pressure as it’s clear now that last continuation candle was a fake bullish signal. I am bearish on AUDJPY as long as it holds below 79.30-80 (more…)
Envy can be a positive motivator. Let it inspire you to work harder for what you want. ~ Robert Bringle
Good morning. Sentiment remains unchanged across the board, euro and other risk pairs extending Friday’s sell-off.
please elaborate your answer in the comments section below
USD Index
Recent top comes under pressure as the dollar extends gains in risk-off trade following Friday’s EU Summit. The rally corresponds to EURUSD’s retest of the bottom zone around 1.3150 (see EURUSD chart below)
USD Index Chart Daily 12-13-2011
EURUSD
The ugly turned uglier as the bottom around 1.3150 is under pressure. As mentioned yesterday – I’m expecting more downside, testing round support at 1.300 soon
Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 12-13-2011
Zooming in the 1-h chart, we can consider the median retracement value of last down leg (from Friday’s top to current low) a decent point to sell into strength.
Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Hourly 12-13-2011
GBPCHF
Here’s what you can call an easy trade: just follow the rumors flow and don’t bet against the house. As much as I don’t like to quote myself, I do it because I know some people really love to trade against the wind:
Rumors of interventions continue to kick the CHF every time it gains ground – retesting recent bottoms against the EUR, GBP etc. Trading against a central bank’s plan is not the best idea. The house always wins. So, buying on the break of 1.44 looks like a good plan these days - December 2
and
No change of plan here, as the Swiss franc is getting hammered by circulating rumors of SNB’s interventions on a regular basis. Holding long with decent stops or buying on the break above 1.4380/00 are the only two bets I can think of. - December 5
So, selling at the “very top” while everyone and his dog was waiting for new SNB intervention, rumors, [insert here whatever events to weaken the CHF] was a foolish idea. Same as buying USDJPY every single day while it’s been falling for months
British Pound Vs Swiss Franc Chart 4hrs 12-13-2011
EURJPY
Support at 100 is likely the next objective as support formed by the rising trendline which is connecting recent higher lows was breached. Interim horizontal support formed by November’s bottom is currently being tested.
Euro Vs Japanese yen Chart Daily 12-13-2011
AUDJPY
One of the plans highlighted yesterday, which is to sell on the break below 78, seems quite reasonable which price continues to push on support at 78.
Australian Dollar Vs Japanese Yen Chart Daily 12-13-2011
Politics is the art of preventing people from taking part in affairs which properly concern them. ~ Paul Valery
Good morning. The euro comes under a new round of selling pressure today as Friday’s rally was short-lived, therefore selling into strength is still the best bet. Some of the notable economic events this week are: Fed Interest Rate Decision tomorrow, ECB Draghi’s Speech and US Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday.
USD Index
dollar is still consolidating above support at 78. More upside is likely in the near term as EURUSD declines towards recent lows.
USD Index Chart Daily 12-12-2011
EURUSD
The market reaction to last week’s EU Summit is negative and it seems there’s only a matter of time (read: days) until the euro will trade below recent bottom zone at 1.3150. Below 1.3150, next support is formed by the YTD’s low at 1.2870. Round numbers have a strong influence and many times they act like magnets. I think this time is not different, hence targeting 1.300 is the way to go and I wouldn’t consider long positions unless it will trade well above 1.35-1.36
Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 12-12-2011
AUDJPY
Quite a bit of lack of direction we have here, as there are two candles suggesting the opposite. One way to play in such conditions is to set pending orders above and below last long tail candle/hammer – hence buying above 79 (continuation candle valid) / selling below 78 (fake reversal on Friday / whole move to 80.50 corrective)
Australian Dollar Vs Japanese Yen Chart Daily 12-12-2011
