Quick post-FOMC Charts and Links

Hello everyone. The US dollar is weaker after Fed rate decision and FOMC statement as QE continues as planned. The EUR is pushing to the upside after diving to minor intraday support zone around $1.3650, GBP is recovering as well – but attention goes to commodities which are rallying at time of writing: Gold currently at 1343 from 1325 3 hours ago, Silver at 27.50 from 26.65 intraday bottom earlier today. Oil is climbing higher, too – not far below the $100 handle after recent consolidation into the 95-98.50 range.
My morning report tomorrow will be delayed a bit so I apologize in advance.

Here are some up-to-date charts:

Continue reading

EURUSD holding gains ahead of FOMC Interest Rate Decision

Quote of the day: “Long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead.” – John Maynard Keynes

EURUSD – 1.3690 @06:28 GMT

Trading strategy: standing aside

Good morning. The euro maintains a bullish stance, trading near 1.37 against the US dollar at time of writing – ahead of today’s FOMC Interest Rate Decision. Resistance around 1.3740 which I mentioned yesterday is the most important level near current level, being both a former support in October and a fibonacci ratio – the 61.8% of the full decline from 1.4275 to 1.2865. Maybe a correction is due – but the short-term sentiment will remain bullish as long as the 1.3430-1.3530 support zone won’t be challenged. The US FOMC Interest Rate Decision at 19:15 GMT is today’s most important event in the Forex calendar; another important data release being the New Home Sales earlier – at 15:00 GMT.

Support: 1.3600, 1.3530, 1.3430/50, 1.3360 and 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3700, 1.3730/50 and 1.3800
Market sentiment: long term – mixed, medium term – mixed, short term – bullish, intraday – bullish

EURUSD 4hrs chart 1-26-2011
EURUSD 4hrs chart 1-26-2011
EURUSD daily chart 1-26-2011
EURUSD daily chart 1-26-2011

I might be back later today. Have a nice day and good luck trading!

EURUSD – No Reversal Signs Yet

Quote of the day: “Under capitalism, man exploits man. Under communism, it’s just the opposite.” – John Kenneth Galbraith

EURUSD – 1.3641 @06:38 GMT

Trading strategy: standing aside

Another day, another high – the euro rose to 1.3685 against the dollar yesterday, not far below resistance zone around 1.3730 which provided support in October and became resistance in November. Above 1.3730, next key objectives are 1.400 and 1.4100. Support at 1.3530 could have been a good buying point yesterday, though it wasn’t reached, as price reversed 10 points above it. There seems to be more upside for the euro in the near term as there are no reversal signs yet – but in case of an extended correction from current levels – same 1.3530 will probably limit the downside. You might want to check the Forex calendar for important events today – one of them being the GfK German Consumer Climate at 07:00 GMT.

Support: 1.3530, 1.3430/50, 1.3360 and 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3700, 1.3730/50 and 1.3800
Market sentiment: long term – mixed, medium term – mixed, short term – bullish, intraday – bullish Continue reading

Euro approaching next important resistance at 1.37

Quote of the day: “There are tons of people who are late to trends by nature and adopt a trend after it’s no longer in fashion. They exist in mutual funds. They exist in clothes. They exist in cars. They exist in lifestyles.” – Jim Cramer

EURUSD – 1.3603 @06:33 GMT

Trading strategy: looking to buy on pullback to 1.3530, stop at 1.3470(0.5% risk), 1st objective at 1.3590, 2nd objective at 1.3650

Good morning. Euro’s recovery continues and former resistance level at 1.3430 looks ‘cheaper’ now, while the single currency flirts with $1.36. My Friday plan to buy on rally – at 1.3530 – was a good bet, but looking for a pullback now is probably safer than buying into the top side. First intraday support stands at 1.3530, backed by 1.3500 and 1.3430/50. On the upside we have resistance at 1.3650 followed by 1.3700/30 and 1.3800. Both short-term and intraday studies are bullish at time of writing and so far the euro doesn’t seem tired. Continue reading

More Upside Pressure

Quote of the day: “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” – Niels Bohr

EURUSD – 1.3503 @06:35

Trading strategy: long at 1.3530, stop at 1.3480 (0.5% risk), 1st objective at 1.3580, 2nd objective at at 1.3650

Good morning. The euro holds fairly well and continues the consolidation into the 1.34-1.35 range. Support into the 1.3430 zone held, although price spiked to as low as 1.3400 yesterday – signaling a false break on intra-day charts. Now that buyers are again in control and the euro is performing very well against others, such as CHF and JPY – a sustained break above 1.3500 in the coming sessions seems plausible. My yesterday plan to buy higher, following the market on a potential breakout, is still valid.

Support: 1.3430/50, 1.3360, 1.3300, 1.3230/50 and 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3540/50, 1.3570 and 1.3700
Market sentiment: long term – mixed, medium term – mixed, short term – bullish, intraday – slightly bearish

EURUSD 4hrs chart 1-21-2011
EURUSD 4hrs chart 1-21-2011
EURUSD hourly chart 1-21-2011
EURUSD hourly chart 1-21-2011

Have a great weekend!

Former resistance at 1.3430 providing support

Quote of the day: “Even if you fall on your face, you’re still moving forward.” – Victor Kiam

EURUSD - 1.3477 @06:40 GMT

Trading strategy: long at 1.3530, stop at 1.3480 (0.5% risk), objective at 1.3630

Good morning. The dollar recovered some losses after the euro touched a monthly high at 1.3537 yesterday – breaking above December’s top side, also a notable resistance line lately. My yesterday plan to look for a buying opportunity on pullback to 1.3440 was quite a good bet, as the EUR rallied above 1.35 immediately. So far there are no signs of reversal on a short-term basis, although intra-day studies are slightly bearish, but there’s more upside ahead as long as 1.3430 provides support – next key resistance coming around 1.37. Today’s notable events in the Forex calendar are the US Initial Jobless Claims and the Existing Home Sales at 13:30 GMT and 15:00 respectively.

Support: 1.3430/50, 1.3360, 1.3300, 1.3230/50 and 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3540/50, 1.3570 and 1.3700
Market sentiment: long term – mixed, medium term – mixed, short term – bullish, intraday – slightly bearish

EURUSD 4hrs chart 1-20-2011
EURUSD 4hrs chart 1-20-2011

Have a good day and good luck trading!

EURUSD breaking above 1.3450

Quote of the day: “Between two evils, I always pick the one I never tried before.” – Mae West

EURUSD – 1.3480 @06:10 GMT

Trading strategy: long on minor pullback to 1.3440, stop at 1.3380 (0.5% risk), objective at 1.3600

The euro is climbing higher, breaking above the 1.3450 resistance zone at time of writing and it seems there is more upside in the market – next upside barrier standing at 1.3570/00, followed by 1.3700. I remain bearish on USD for now, as discussed in my evening article, from yesterday. If the EUR is going to stabilize above former resistance, then minor intra-day pullbacks should find support into the 1.3400-1.3450 region. Buying on break higher such as this one above 1.3450 or minor pullbacks (not caused by some major Eurozone news – those won’t be minor) look like good bets for now.

Support: 1.3430/50, 1.3360, 1.3300, 1.3230/50 and 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3500, 1.3570 and 1.3700
Market sentiment: long term – mixed, medium term – mixed, short term – bullish, intraday – bullish

EURUSD daily chart 1-19-2011
EURUSD daily chart 1-19-2011

I might be back later today. Good luck

Evening thoughts and short-term update

“I think that gravity sets into everything, including careers, but pendulums do swing and mountains do become valleys after a while… if you keep on walking.” – Sylvester Stallone

Good evening. I hope everyone is fine today. It’s been an interesting day, so far, as the dollar continued to depreciate across the board and some important levels have been brought into play. In what follows, I will discuss the EURUSD and post some interesting charts – updating the last short-term charts & setups I posted some days ago.

Here we go. Euro’s action today against the dollar was encouraging to the bulls in the first part of the day, but another failed attempt against resistance @1.3430 occurred so things don’t look much different than they did last Friday. As mentioned in my morning article today, my plan was to buy EUR on break higher, towards this resistance line at 1.3430. And it was a good plan. I was looking at a bullish setup also on Monday, when buying on pullback at 1.3230 seemed a decent bet. Well, it certainly wasn’t a bad plan – though price pulled back “only” to 1.3245 – a few pips away from the level I was monitoring, in order to buy the dip.

A trader friend asked me why I am looking for buying setups – since the Eurozone has big, big problems and the domino effect is more than obvious. So I take this opportunity to explain my rationale. Judging by recent market action, statistics and overall news sentiment – it was (and still is) quite clear that most people look to sell the EUR on every single upside action – and a bell should ring when most people do the same thing, hence becoming more cautious and slightly courageous. As a momentum trader, waiting for breaks out of the range and challenging previous lower highs or tops is more important than focusing on all the news, data releases and balancing other factors meant to influence the market.

I use to tell myself and other people that when a chart doesn’t tell you much, it might be a good idea to flip it upside down – maybe then it might provide you more clues. So this should help – if you are biased for trading from the short side (due to news, fundamental conditions, expectations etc.) in a bull market (EURUSD short-term). That’s why I suggested to take a look at the USD Index chart (inversely correlated to EURUSD as per the chart below), because it doesn’t seem too bullish nowadays and is rather showing a big warning sign – signaling a potential breakdown.

EURUSD Vs. USD Index 1-18-2011
EURUSD Vs. USD Index 1-18-2011

Continue reading

EURUSD maintains a bid tone while above 1.3230/50

Quote of the day: “We have guided missiles and misguided men.” – Martin Luther King

EURUSD – 1.3314 @06:27 GMT

Trading strategy: looking to buy at 1.3335, stop at 1.3285 (0.5% risk), objective at 1.3435

Good morning. First line of support that I highlighted yesterday around 1.3230 remained intact after the euro pulled back from recent top side. Intra-day studies still show signs of weakness as current 4hrs candle stands below minor resistance around 1.3330 – which served as support on last rally few days ago. Short-term studies are bullish and there might be more upside to explore if price will stabilize above 1.3330, thus opening 1.3430/50. Else, selling on breakdown below 1.3230/50, targeting 1.3070/00, should be a viable plan. Today’s notable data release in the economic calendar is the German Zew Economic Sentiment at 10:00 GMT.

Support: 1.3300, 1.3230/50, 1.3200 and 1.3150
Resistance: 1.3330/50, 1.3400, 1.3430/50 and 1.3500
Market sentiment: long term – mixed, medium term – bearish, short term – bullish, intraday – bullish

EURUSD 4hrs chart 1-18-2011
EURUSD 4hrs chart 1-18-2011
EURUSD daily chart 1-18-2011
EURUSD daily chart 1-18-2011

Have a great day!

EURUSD pulling back

Quote of the day: “The hard reality of trading is that, if you want to create consistency, you have to start from the premise that no matter what the outcome, you are completely responsible.” – Mark Douglas

EURUSD - 1.3323 @06:39 GMT

Trading strategy: looking to buy on pullback to 1.3230, stop at 1.3170 (0.5% risk), 1st objective at 1.3280, 2nd objective at 1.3400

Good morning. The euro had a tremendous week, recovering from 1.2870 to as high as 1.3450 where it faced multi-week resistance. Momentum studies are bullish on a short-term basis since the pair has broken above 1.3200 and current pullback from 1.3430/50 seems corrective – sentiment remaining intact as long as 1.3200-1.3250 will be a stable bottom. Other pairs have recovered strongly last week – such as EURCHF and EURJPY – both breaking above previous lower high zones, signaling a trend reversal on short-term basis. Cable was even a better performer, flirting with the 1.6 psychological barrier already – overall looking bullish on both short and medium term studies. Looking for buying opportunities on pullback or break higher seems a good plan for now.

Support: 1.3300, 1.3230/50, 1.3200 and 1.3150
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3430/50 and 1.3500
Market sentiment: long term – mixed, medium term – bearish, short term – bullish, intraday – bearish

EURUSD daily chart 1-17-2011
EURUSD daily chart 1-17-2011
EURUSD 4hrs chart 1-17-2011
EURUSD 4hrs chart 1-17-2011

USD Index

USD Index daily chart 1-17-2011
USD Index daily chart 1-17-2011

Have a great day and good luck trading