Quote of the day: “Where there is much light, the shadow is deep.” - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

EURUSD – 1.4844 @07:13 GMT

Good morning. Surprisingly (or not), EURUSD is still trading into the range which holds for 5 days now. Both lower and upper range limits, at 1.4770 and 1.4870 respectively, have provided strong barriers on each day. Tomorrow’s ECB Rate Decision and Press Conference are some of the most important events in the Economic Calendar this week, and would probably be bullish for the EUR as the ECB is strongly signaling that additional rate increases are likely this year, but at a moderate pace. Today’s important events are the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change at 13:15 GMT and Fed’s Fisher speech at 21:00 GMT. Looking at current intraday EURUSD chart (hourly), we can see that the EUR is getting a lift after retesting support at 1.4770 earlier today. One thing is certain: it will exit the range soon, as there are too many positions built on both sides with stops out of the range, therefore exiting one way or another would likely trigger a cascade effect of stop-loss orders, giving it a greater chance of a sustained breakout. Short-term sentiment remains bullish as EUR is still holding gains, not being affected by the large correction in Silver and Gold.

Trading strategy: Primary plan is to buy around 1.49 on potential 4-hrs bar close above 1.4870, initial stop at 1.4830 (0.5% risk), target open. Another plan is to look for selling opportunities after a 4-hrs bar closing below 1.4770, with an initial stop at 1.4830 (0.5% risk), target at 1.4650

Support: 1.4770/00, 1.4730/50, 1.4700 and 1.4600/30
Resistance: 1.4850, 1.4880/00, 1.4950 and 1.500
Market sentiment: long term – mixed, medium term – bullish, short term – bullish, intraday – neutral

Have a great day

- Continue reading: EURUSD Still Range Bound