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Thursday 06-25-2009

EURUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

The euro dropped on yesterday, not being able to hold gains above the 1.4000 mark. The fast decline was mainly caused by the SNB intervention against the CHF. Short-term studies are showing indecision as the current uptrend is stalling within the 1.38-1.41 range. Intra-day sentiment is currently bearish due to yesterday’s 250 points decline but the euro tries to base around the 1.3950 level. Support is emerging around 1.3900/10 – formed by the lower band of an upward trend channel seen on the hourly charts. Below 1.3900, next downside barriers are seen at 1.3830 and 1.3750/75. On the upside, minor resistance is formed again by the 1.4000 mark followed by 1.4045, 1.4140 and 1.4180 higher. Downside pressure is likely to remain high for now, a breach above 1.4045/50 being required to resume uptrend. Current exchange rate is 1.3961 @06:15 GMT

Support levels: 1.3900, 1.3830 and 1.3750/75
Resistance levels: 1.4000, 1.4045/50, 1.4140 and 1.4180
Market sentiment: long-term : bearish, mid-term : bullish, short-term : slightly bullish

Yesterday trading strategy: long at 1.4000, initial stop at 1.3940, objective at 1.4100. Adjust stop to breakeven on +30 pips (at 1.4030) if reached : -60 pips

AUDUSD

Trading strategy: long at .7760, initial stop at .7710, objective at .7860. Adjust stop to breakeven on +30 pips (at .7790) if reached

Resistance into the .8050 region formed by the upper band of a downward trend channel could not be breached on yesterday and the Aussie dollar is losing strength, currently trading below the .8000 mark – at.7990. A sustained breach above .8050 could open the .8115-.8250 region. On the other side, if the Aussie fails to rebound to .8050 and above, an extended decline may target the .7750 region – the lower band of the mentioned downward trend channel. Current exchange rate is .7991 @06:15 GMT

Support levels: .7950, .7885/00, .7860 and .7800
Resistance levels: .8015, .8050 and .8100/15
Market sentiment: long-term : bearish, mid-term : bullish, short-term : slightly bearish

Yesterday trading strategy: long at .8015, initial stop at .7970, objective at .8095. Adjust stop to breakeven on +25 pips (at .8040) if reached : -45 pips

EURCHF

Trading strategy: long at 1.5160, initial stop at 1.5110, objective at 1.5230. Adjust stop to breakeven on +30 pips (at 1.5190) if reached

The euro rallied on yesterday as a result of the SNB intervention – selling francs. The pair is expected to trade violently for a while, until it will stabilize and hopefully the average daily range will be higher than 50-60 points as we got used to on the last weeks. A pullback below 1.5235/50 – former top side, could extend towards 1.5150/60 where another support layer is seen. Current exchange rate is 1.5280 @06:15 GMT

Support levels: 1.5235/50, 1.5150/60 and 1.5100
Resistance levels: 1.5300, 1.5380/00 and 1.5500
Market sentiment: long-term : bearish, mid-term : bearish, short-term : bullish

Yesterday trading strategy: stand aside


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