Thursday
Analysis and forecastsTrading strategies and daily outlook 08-20-09by Liviu
EURUSD
Trading strategy: stand aside or eventually attempt small long at 1.4160 if we get there, initial stop at 1.4110, objective at 1.4230 – adjusting stop to breakeven on +30 pips (at 1.4190)
Yesterday’s rally into the 1.4230/50 resistance zone occurred as anticipated and the said resistance is still valid. The euro holds steady, consolidating throughout the Asian trading session into a narrow range below 1.4250. My short position @1.4230 has been closed on breakeven since the market shows no retracement signs yet and the resistance zone has failed thus far to provoke a decent selling condition. The daily chart shows that we have yet to overcome 1.4300 to re-establish uptrend. Watch for the entire 1.4300-1.4350 region to provide resistance on rallies. Upside is likely to remain favored for now – in case of pullbacks, the 1.4140-1.4175 region will probably provide support and limit losses. Current exchange rate is 1.4243 @06:20 GMT
Support: 1.4200/15, 1.4175, 1.4140 and 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4250/80, 1.4300, 1.4330/50 and 1.4400
- EURUSD 4hrs chart 8-20-2009
- EURUSD hourly chart 8-20-2009
- EURUSD daily chart 8-20-2009
AUDUSD
Trading strategy: stand aside
Resistance into the .8315 formed by the 50% retracement of the .8475-.8155 move is under pressure at the time of writing this. The whole .8315-.8355 region is expected to provide a selling point but it seem to be a hazardous scenario as the short term charts show signs of recovery especially due to yesterday’s reversal on the .8175 support. A continuation of current recovery may bring the top side of .8450/75 on focus. Current exchange rate is .8313 @06:20 GMT
Support: .8250, .8200 and .8150/75
Resistance: .8315, .8355, .8400 and .8450/75
- AUDUSD 4hrs chart 8-20-2009
USDJPY
Trading strategy: short at 95.30, initial stop at 95.80, objective at 94.60. Adjust stop to breakeven on +30 pips (at 95.00) if reached
The Japanese yen continued to strenghtened against the dollar on yesterday but switched direction after reaching 93.65. Since the daily close was not below 94.00, current recovery has been initiated. First resistance comes at 95.00 and a potential breach will favor further upside action towards the 95.50/75 region, where bears are expected to renew shorts. Current exchange rate is 94.39 @06:20 GMT
Support: 94.00, 93.65 and 93.00
Resistance 95.00, 95.50/75 and 96.00
- USDJPY 4hrs chart 8-20-2009
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Post Tags: audusd, eurusd, forex forecast, technical analysis, trading strategies, usdjpy
Aug 20, 2009, 6:46 am
EURUSD never went to 1.4200 so the stop was never moved to break even. You must have manually closed it without sending a notification. This is the first time you have done this for the few months I have been following you. Is this going to be a recurrent way you trade? If so, following your signals and duplicating your performance will be impossible…
Aug 20, 2009, 6:52 am
Hi
I closed it manually at the time of writing the report because I was not feeling too confident about the position. Market is at 1.4216 right now so it can be closed for a small profit
Aug 20, 2009, 1:54 pm
The EU is definitely choppy today… what would the reason for this be Liviu?
Aug 20, 2009, 2:02 pm
http://i623.photobucket.com/albums/tt317/tu-2009/EUdAug20105704.gif
Aug 20, 2009, 2:13 pm
Quiet day across the board. On August 13 to Aug 14 (best seen on 4hrs charts) we had a similar consolidation which followed the rally and EUR remained for 24 hours into the 70 points consolidation range then went down. It was on the same trend-line resistance… we’ll see if history repeats, if it breaks down below 1.4200 next.
I’m overall bullish on the Euro but still feel that it needs some more reasons to break higher.
I rather go out for a pizza
Cheers
Aug 20, 2009, 2:54 pm
Liviu, from your experience, what do you find to be best trading months of the year?
Just came from a webinar that said January, April, July and October are good months
of volatility… forget exactly the reason he said why.
Aug 20, 2009, 2:56 pm
Can I post actual pics of charts instead of just the links here?
Aug 20, 2009, 4:23 pm
There are more liquid and less liquid time frames throughout the year and it is a matter of preference and trading style on deciding if some months are better than others. While some people prefer more volatile time frames, some prefer the less volatile. Nowadays, since 2008, there are no “better months” since everything became less predictable and random. Check this monthly chart: http://bit.ly/19inJO
In the chart above you may notice that monthly ranges were smooth and just fine to trade over the last years, until 2008, when things got out of control. Spot the 3 lines on the chart, they represent the average range which drastically increased since the global crisis inception. Another realistic indicator for the crisis effect on currency pairs (especially EUR) is seen on my performance statement’s equity graph which went quite flat since then… flat but slightly up, as I managed to conserve some of the (potential) losses.
Just post links to charts, that’s fine. Else it could break the right sidebar’s last comments section.