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Trading strategies and daily outlook 08-21-09

EURUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside or eventually attempt small long at 1.4110 if we get there, initial stop at 1.4050, objective at 1.4180 – adjusting stop to breakeven on +30 pips (at 1.4140)

Yesterday’s consolidation raises question marks over current bias as the consolidation range could be a recurrent pattern as seen on the 4 hrs chart below. Since we have no clear breakout on the falling trend-line coming from 1.4445, bulls should be cautious as intra-day momentum already lost the strength accumulated on last rally from 1.4100. On a potential dip below current support at 1.4200/15, 1.4130 may come into play – as noticed on the hourly chart attached below. Short-term sentiment is slightly bullish but we still need a confirmation – such as breaking above 1.4300, a barrier which the Euro had trouble with, lately. Current exchange rate is 1.4224 @06:05 GMT

Support: 1.4200/15, 1.4130/55 and 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4250/75, 1.4300/30 and 1.4400


EURUSD 4hrs 8-21-2009
EURUSD 4hrs 8-21-2009

EURUSD hourly chart 8-21-2009
EURUSD hourly chart 8-21-2009

AUDUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

The fib resistance region around .8315 has provided a reversal point and the Aussie is down 70 points after its last failed attempt on climbing higher, through the fibo barrier. Intra-day sentiment is bearish, short-term momentum losing strength as well. In case of extended losses against the greenback, keep an eye on the .8130 support zone formed by a rising trend-line on the daily charts. Below that, .8085 is next – formed by the median retracement of July’s up leg along with July’s open rates. The .8000 handle should also provide a decent support – being both the 61.8% of July’s up leg and a psychological barrier. Current quote is .8246 @06:05 GMT

Support: .8185/00, .8130/50 and .8085
Resistance: .8315, .8355, .8400 and .8450/75


AUDUSD daily chart 8-21-2009
AUDUSD daily chart 8-21-2009
AUDUSD 4hrs 8-21-2009
AUDUSD 4hrs 8-21-2009

I will continue a bit later today with some other pairs such as USDJPY

Happy trading!

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