Quote of the day: “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” - George Santayana
EURUSD – 1.4342 @06:32 GMT
Good morning. The big day for the euro is here, as the ECB is expected to raise interest rates by 25-bps to 1.5% a bit later today. Will it help the euro to recover after this week’s 300 points decline? Well, at this point it looks weak and the support zone formed by the 50% and 62% fibs of last up leg is currently being tested. Judging by how things are, considering the ongoing concerns over the euro zone’s periphery, I think it’s best to sell minor rallies or breakdowns – such as this fib support zone in case it breaks. Except for the ECB’s rate decision, other important event in the economic calendar is the US Initial Jobless Claims.
Trading strategy: looking to sell on potential pullback to 1.4400, initial stop at 1.4460 (0.5% risk), target open. Also considering a short into the 1.4290 region with an initial stop at 1.4350 if the decline resumes.
Support: 1.4300/20 and 1.4280 and 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4400, 1.4430/65, 1.4500, 1.4550/75, 1.4600 and 1.4700
Market sentiment: long term – mixed, medium term – bullish, short term – bearish, intraday – bearish
- EURUSD 4hrs chart 7-7-2011
- EURUSD daily chart 7-7-2011
Have a nice day and trade safe!
Eurodollar is still vulnerable for me, so I trade another currency pair. I count also with a possibility that interest rate will not be risen this month. However, if ECB rise interest rate today, I think investors will draw their mind to Greece, Portugal, Spain etc. problems. I will try to sell somewhere around 1.453-6
I don't think we'll see it back to 1.45 anytime soon. Perhaps there'll be some upspike post ECB hike but once everyone's eyes will focus back on Portugal, Greece & all, there'll be more selling.
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