Quote of the day:“Gambling promises the poor what property performs for the rich–something for nothing.” - George Bernard Shaws
EURUSD – 1.3896 @07:42 GMT
Morning. Euro’s pullback continued, touching a daily low at 1.3862 yesterday – not far above my planned entry price at 1.3850. As mentioned yesterday – I remain bullish on EURUSD on both short term and medium term basis, as long as price doesn’t retreat below 1.3750-1.3800, but I am cautious at these levels and frankly, I prefer to see some decent signs of recovery to confirm that uptrend resumes. Meanwhile, I am keeping an eye on the intra-day resistance/former support @1.3950 but also 1.3850 on the lower side. Hourly studies are currently bearish and sellers are probably waiting for a rebound to 1.3950. What’s your trading plan today?
Trading strategy: standing aside
Support: 1.3850/60, 1.3800 and 1.3750/60
Resistance: 1.3950, 1.400/30, 1.4050 and 1.4100
Market sentiment: long term – mixed, medium term – bullish, short term – bullish, intraday – bearish
- EURUSD 4hrs chart 3-9-2011
good luck trading
I estimate that we will go down to 1.38 and maybe even 1.3750. I am in on two positions and I am riding it out and letting the trailling stop do what it do. Also looking to buy on the dip maybe at 1.3780
are you on two short positions right now?
Buying at 1.3780 sounds like a good plan at this stage, current movement seems corrective on both daily and weekly charts.
Good luck
yes, I sold at 1.4030 and 1.3920.
great entry at 1.4030. Good luck
hi john,
do you have a blog? your trades are so similar to mine, i sold eur/usd at 1.40300 and got out at 1.38293 and then entered a buy at 1.38293, almost got stopped out last nite but its continued up now. planning to get out at least above 1.40300.
Good day :) . May you please give you opinion on this please? Which currency should I trade? Background information about me: I have a monthly minimum target of 15-20% (at my age I don't care about large profit) and i'm already up 9%, but the problem is that I only trade EURUSD and I get under pressure at times because there will be times I won't be able to trade. I am well disciplined, I'm very good with risk management and have a reliable trading plan and strategy. I was thinking about adding another currency pair. Thanks.
Hi. Most of them are correlated – either positively or negatively correlated but ones are more volatile than others so it's up to your personal preferences, really. In my opinion it is best to look for those which are less correlated so there will be different trading opportunities.
Regarding monthly targets, 15-20% per month sounds too high but that's me and I'm more conservative. What's the max % loss you will feel comfortable with per month, if things go bad?
You're already up 9% after 1st month of trading? not sure if I understand correctly
Good luck
Considering there is a second and real trendline way lower(u didn't throw it below the lows of ALL the daily candles!) Euro will most likely find its resistance there in the case the price drops further down.
yes there is one but in my chart I preferred to have the last weekly lows connected instead of looking way lower to other trendline. On the very short-term basis – this (~1.3850 trendline) is what really matters, as it still can be seen on 4hrs. Higher time frames – different stories. There are trendlines everywhere and they are all real :)
With all due respect, u seem to misunderstand me.. even on the 4H chart u didn't throw the trendline in a correct manner IMO, bc u ignore lows and cut through them. Just connect the lows from 14th of Feb.(1.3428) and 16th of Feb(1.3462) with the low from 22th of Feb(1.3526) with a line and u see what I was talking about.. That's old school trendline drawing, I know, I'm in the business since 2003, but still it rules, as we will see soon..
I cut through lows if the candles have long tails, which means that there were fast price spikes above/below the trendline or false breaks on lower time frames (i.e: 1hr chart breakout still being a long tail on 4hrs).
Exact lows and highs ('to the pip' precision) are not important to me. I care more about 1) (candle/bar) closing prices 2) round numbers 3) extensions of lines connecting many lows/highs etc.
sorry, I mean support, not resistance, ofcourse
Yes I'm up 9% but if you check my post here: http://www.innerfx.com/analysis-and-forecasts/non… , you'll see it was an accident. Ok so if I disregard that trade, my actual profit for the month so far is 3.4 %. I've been trading for 9 months now (4 months of trying to find a strategy 4 month until i realized that it works). So I started tracking my results last month. The reason I put 15 – 20% was because I wanted you opinion :) . My monthly target (for now) is actually just to have positive returns. I considered the correlation of the pairs. Any recommendations, so I can begin studying them right away? Ok, don't think of it as advice, think of it as sharing of thoughts :)
don't matter how small my monthly returns may be, I'll be happy until I naturally build up skill as the years go by.
here is a tool you can use to see what's the correlation between some different pairs: http://www.mataf.net/en/tools/01-01-correlation
Again – it is strictly a matter of personal preference. Personally I'd be more than happy to trade (let's say) 5 different non-correlated pairs than 5 highly correlated pairs (either positively or negatively correlated).
You probably have to check some exotic pairs because they are less correlated to majors.
If your strategy works, stick to it and don't change it – no matter what people say
Good luck
Many thanks. Your help is much appreciated :)