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EURUSD possible bull flag formation

Quote of the day: “Economies are supposed to serve human ends.. not the other way round. We forget at our peril that markets make a good servant, a bad master and a worse religion.” – Amory Lovins

Check my yesterday evening post in case you missed it and consider liking innerfx if you are one of the 600 million users of Facebook.

EURUSD

Trading strategy: looking to buy around 1.3340 / on break above 1.3330, stop at 1.3280, 1st objective at 1.3390, 2nd objective at 1.3500

Although it was under pressure yesterday, the euro strengthened today, following the Australian dollar which rallied on better than expected employment data. What’s quite interesting is that on near term basis we have a bull flag formation and also the falling trend line connecting recent lower highs. So, a break above the said trend line will also confirm the bull flag, favoring gains to 1.3440 which will be the next target. Short-term sentiment remains bearish and selling on weakness signs should be ok. My plan to sell at 1.3260 on intra-day pullback yesterday worked out fine for a 50 pip target. What I’m planning now is to wait for a break above 1.3320/30 as that should be a good reason to buy. The opposite scenario would be to sell on break below 1.3250, adding on potential break below yesterday’s bottom @1.3180. Most important event in the economic calendar today is the US Initial Jobless Claims. Current exchange rate is 1.3299 @07:02GMT

Support: 1.3250, 1.3200, 1.3150, 1.3100/25 and 1.2980/00
Resistance: 1.3330, 1.3400, 1.3440 and 1.3500
Market sentiment: long term – mixed, medium term – bullish, short term – bearish, intraday – bullish

EURUSD chart 4hrs 12-9-2010
EURUSD chart 4hrs 12-9-2010

More trading setups

Gold

XAUUSD chart 4hrs 12-9-2010
XAUUSD chart 4hrs 12-9-2010

GBPUSD

GBPUSD chart daily 12-9-2010
GBPUSD chart daily 12-9-2010

CHFJPY

CHFJPY chart daily 12-9-2010
CHFJPY chart daily 12-9-2010

AUDUSD

AUDUSD chart 4hrs 12-9-2010
AUDUSD chart 4hrs 12-9-2010

Have a nice day and good luck trading

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14 Responses to EURUSD possible bull flag formation

  1. Liviu says:

    good stuff. thanks man

  2. Pingback: EURUSD bull flag still valid

  3. Andrei says:

    Be very careful with the "credits" offered by FOREX brokers

    I recently lost all my money from my Alpari UK account supposing that their “credit” money will be available automatically for transactions if I loose all my own money.

    Not only they were not automatically available, but they will never be available after you loose your own money (!!!) they are available only to increase your margin/volume when you trade with your own money, as explained now (!) by their officials.

    As these details were not explicitly included in their recently ended “100% credit” campaign, I think their offer was misleading, and I hope FSA will consider the same.

    Anyway, check from the first if the “credits” offered by any FOREX broker can be used like real money or are just another way to attract clients without offering anything really useful.

  4. ShortBus says:

    Andrei: You need to learn what a margin account is and is not. Do not blame the broker for you putting on bad trades, over leveraging and you losing all your money.

    The broker is not the problem. Your trading is.

    Go back to school and then come back and try again.

  5. Liviu says:

    I don't think it's only a trader's problem. Not necessarily related to Andrei's problem but there are many techniques made to milk all they can out of traders accounts if they are not aware what they're doing – such as trading competitions. There are few bucket shops running trading competitions on a regular basis. Though the demo contests are probably fun :)

    Last time I told a trader that he can't double his account on a monthly basis and there will come a month when he will lose it all, his reaction was like "STFU I know what I'm doing!"

    …the road to hell is paved with good intentions

  6. Liviu says:

    I'm reading the T&C of the 100% Alpari Credit Promotion: http://www.alpari.co.uk/en/100_percent/terms.html

  7. ShortBus says:

    It is just a stupid gimmick for newbie traders. If you put in $10k, they give you $20k worth of buying power, but you already have 1:100 leverage, so what is the point. It is just an excuse to have accounts wiped out faster.

    buying $2 million worth of EUR/USD on a $10k deposit is just stupidity, and you will get wiped out on a 0.5% move.

    So, no point in reading T&C's. Anyone using the "trading credits" is a newbie and should not be trading with that much leverage, and possibly not trading at all.

  8. Liviu says:

    Some years ago I was so fascinated by leverage and it felt so good to know a single mouse click is worth a lot of money. Thousands $ moving between banks with a single click! wow! NOT

    I was depressed when I found out it was just an electronic bet between my finger and some broker. We could have used tequila shots, chewing gum, buttons, whatever instead of computer numbers …

  9. Kenwei says:

    "We could have used tequila shots…" I had the same feeling 10 years ago when I lost my last one thousand. Before I never thought of this by losing thousands a day. But when everything was gone, suddenly a deep sollow reminded me that I made lots of big mistakes. I never forgot such a feeling since then and that eventually helped me out of losing circles.

  10. Liviu says:

    Hi Kenwei

    If i'm not mistaken, and I'm 90% sure that I'm not, you are one of my long term readers (for few years, right?)

    In this mercy less market it is a rare, yet pleasant occasion to meet again same traders after more than a year…

    Cheers!

  11. Kenwei says:

    Yes, Liviu. I like your general predictions. I couldn't agree more with you. As a day trader, I do not follow technical analysis too much since futures could move wildly a second. In those unusual/extraordinary situations, traders has to use "gut feeling " to avoid losses.

  12. ShortBus says:

    Liviu: You do not look very happy in that picture.

  13. Liviu says:

    I know. Because I'm sick of smiling/laughing faces and business suits on every trading site, especially brokerage sites

    It's my way to be against the trend and if it doesn't work with this pic, I'll change it with a big tattoo LOL

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