EURUSD Testing Important Resistance at 1.45

Quote of the day: “When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less.” - Paul Brown

EURUSD - 1.4488 @06:37 GMT

Good morning. Now that the Greek parliament approved the austerity measures, focus is back on the interest rates and the euro enjoys weekly highs ahead of July’s ECB rate hike, which is just around the corner. We are almost having a break of resistance at 1.4500 on the daily chart depending on how price develops until today’s close, and if we zoom-in to lower time frames such as the 4-hrs or hourly, weakness signs are not clear enough to call it a top. However, my plan to sell at 1.4500 wasn’t abandoned but frankly, at this point I feel I got into it being biased on dollar’s favour against the euro because of Greek problems. I’ll hold it for a while and will close if price returns around 1.4520/30. Key events in the economic calendar today are Trichet’s Speech this morning and the US Initial Jobless Claims later. Trichet’s “strong vigilance mode” is already priced-in so I don’t think he will fuel the ongoing recovery with something new or by repeating what’s already known.

Trading strategy: holding short at 1.4500, initial stop at 1.4530, target open

Support: 1.4400/30, 1.4450, 1.4300/20, 1.4200/30 and 1.4150/70
Resistance: 1.4500/20, 1.4550 and 1.4600
Market sentiment: long term – mixed, medium term – bullish, short term – mixed, intraday – bullish

have a great day!

More in Analysis and forecasts »
Post tags: ECB, Euro-zone crisis, EURUSD, Greece, Interest Rate Decision, Trichet