Mix a little foolishness with your prudence: It’s good to be silly at the right moment. ~ Horace
Good morning. The euro continues to lose ground as all recent rallies have been sold. However, support around 1.3430 is still valid but the pair certainly feels quite heavy, so it seems that it’s only a matter of time until it breaks lower. Some of important events of today’s FX Calendar are the US Initial Jobless Claims and Core Durable Goods Orders
USD Index
Dollar Index Chart Daily 11-23-2011
EURUSD
Notable resistance is formed around 1.3650 but it seems quite hard to reach such levels. Selling into strength remains the best bet for now
Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 11-23-2011
USDCAD
I’m bullish on USDCAD since it was testing 1.0230/50 and now that the breakout is very clear, it’s time to expect next target to be reached – at 1.0550 or higher. Buying dips if price pulls back is a plan to consider.
US Dollar Vs Canadian Dollar Chart Daily 11-23-2011
GBPUSD
I guess that every fibonacci fan is long at these levels since 3 days ago but it doesn’t look good at all. As seen below – the 50% test was a better (temporary) reversal point than current test of 62%, so far. One possible scenario is to sell on the break lower, below fib support.
British Pound Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 11-23-2011
GBPCHF
It seems there more downside for GBP against CHF, and next support region is formed by the median retracement of the entire up leg – as seen below.
British Pound Vs Swiss Franc Chart 4hrs 11-23-2011
AUDJPY
Risk-off trade continues, hence AUDJPY is trading lower – breaking below support formed by the 62% retracement. More downside is expected, even if price pulls back to test 76.50 first.
Australian Dollar vs Japanese Yen Chart Daily 11-23-2011
S&P 500
S&P500 Chart Daily 11-23-2011
Silver
Current recovery is probably corrective so it might be a good idea to consider selling opportunities while price doesn’t return in the range above 33
Silver Chart Daily 11-23-2011
Have a great day!
GBP / JPY looks a good opportunity for a short around 120.00, psychological level. :)
I'm not the biggest fan of pairs trading at record highs or lows so GBPJPY is not for me right now. Sure, there's always room for more downside, just look at USDJPY and I do agree that there's more upside for the Yen against everything since it's the only safe-haven currency left and all recent interventions failed to change anything.
AUDJPY, GBPJPY, anything/JPY … they're all going down.. just that I feel a bit more comfortable selling other XX/JPY instead of GBPJPY these days
Yep, the fact that it's very near the oversold area was worrying me too. I closed the trade for 10 pips. Thanks for your opinion. ;)
Things I'm considering about cable.
From the Aug 1.6617 top it looks that a harmonic of some sort is in the making whereby the swing low at 1.527 is now looking vulnerable IMHO.
Supporting this view from a fundamental POV would be the fact that Uncle Mervyn still has plenty of that 75 yard asset purchasing facility left and AFAIK that had a fairly well defined time-span. Add in cable's historic behaviour in November and it's looking very one sided (down).
Add to this eventually, end-of-year fund repatriation by corp entities for accounting purposes and the current selloff has good potential for a reversal later in December.
Between then and now I'll be looking for some kind of fib conf of a reversal level. Here, today? I'm not so sure, retracement – quite possibly.
Later on we'll all know of course.
hmm it's all about eurozone and risk-on/off (more often off) these days – cable goes hand in hand with AUDUSD, AUDJPY and EURUSD. Whatever happens in UK should only cause a short-term spike before correlation with main risk oscillators resumes, IMO
Right now the GBPUSD is 95% positively correlated to AUD on daily basis and 85% to EURUSD; 65% Vs AUD and 88% to EURUSD on weekly basis.
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Wouldn't dispute the correlations ever. Nor the €/zone RORO factor. I stuck with my (re-established) cable short especially in light of how shallow retracements were midweek. Now looking for what happens tom – and whether 1.533 and 1.527 are seen/hold.
I'm still prepared to cut and run on any short squeeze seriousness, but after this week – the trend is your friend.
AUD looks to be suffering as China loses steam as well. Can't play that as well, sadly. Account leverage would be too high.