“Always do what you are afraid to do.” – Ralph Waldo Emerson
Hello. I made a few changes to the site recently, so if you notice any errors or weird behavior please drop me a line. One of the changes is the IntenseDebate comment system which is very cool. You probably know it already from other blogs – not necessarily trading related.
I’m not sure yet if I’ll be able to post my morning stuff tomorrow because I’ll be on the road but I will get back later, anyway.
EURUSD
The ongoing recovery is pointing to more upside action although the euro remains fragile. However, both the EUR and USD are fragile and – like I said few days ago -it’s like playing tennis with a bad-news ball over the Atlantic ocean. One day there’s the Eurozone debt crisis and the flight for safety to the US dollar, next day is Fed’s money printer at full speed and if there are two or three lighter days when you feel that the charts are stable – a rating agency will make sure that boredom doesn’t set in.
- EURUSD daily chart 2-21-2011
Looking at the daily chart above – we can see that next upside barrier is around 1.3730/50. I think that it won’t be too difficult to break it, or not that difficult like it was in the last attempts. Meaning of this level: 61% of 1.4280 to 1.2875, support in October 2010 and resistance after breached in November. It also provided resistance in the last few weeks. Friday’s rally above 1.3620/50 completes a bull flag formation on the daily charts – putting the euro back on the recovery road – almost canceling the 3 reversal candles on the weekly chart below.
- EURUSD weekly chart 2-21-2011
The weekly chart is quite interesting. As you can see – last year we had support at 1.3750 for over a month and the dips were bought immediately – so we had 3 nice continuation / long tailed candles. Then 1.3750 failed to hold and turned resistance. Now what? long tailed candles from the other side – suggesting that 1.3750 is a strong resistance zone. But there’s a chance this is a fake signal – like it was last year, around the same level? A weekly close above 1.3750 should confirm this theory and also provide a good reason to buy the EUR.
EURJPY
- EURJPY daily chart 2-21-2011
EURJPY looks interesting, too. Uptrend remains intact, not much is changed since my previous update on EURJPY. I think that a test of 115 is due soon.
Silver
- Silver daily chart 2-21-2011
No signs of exhaustion and no barriers ahead…. perhaps the charting platform menu bar if that counts.
Here are some links for today:
Goldman Sachs’ Charts That Matter 2/18
US economics: One big Ponzi scheme
QE2 and its consequences (part 2)
Oil, Silver, And Gold All Making Huge Moves Today Thanks To Mideast Chaos
It’s Monday, you could use some motivation (29 Photos)
and a clip for all the gadget lovers
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Cf7IL_eZ38
Enjoy, see you tomorrow.
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9G-Y__6zIig
Nice post as usual. EUR/USD is wedging up to resistance. Looks like target early April around 1.42 to top possibly. There is another possible spot just under 1.40 that could get it as well (here would be OK). Not so sure about that diagonal, but it is a possbility.
The other option is that it is in a head and shoulders forming right shoulder here (with the last touch of 42 being the head) and that is pointing to a 116 target (which fits well with LT weekly support diagonal). LT resistance here at 1.375 and then around 1.428. Support starts at 1.256. Either way (it goes up to 42 or turns here) I see it ending at 116 or worse of course.
Here is a weekly chart –
http://tinypic.com/r/2aadiyc/7
Thanks Shanky
Cool weekly chart. I was out for a while, just got back. I checked the charts on my phone, though. What a day!
I bought EURUSD and EURJPY a bit lower from current levels (1.3640 and 112.92 respectively). Will add to the positions higher, if possible.
Nice post . thanks
thank you too
Liviu, what are your recommendations on AUDCHF? I see triangle formations on monthly, weekly and daily charts. I think that both currencies are overrated.
Hi Daniela. I don't track it much but it looks like a good sell. Do you plan to open a position or you have one already?
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