Risk-On Trade Continues, Breakouts All Over the Charts

Quote of the day:“If you can’t do what you want, do what you can.” ~ Lois McMaster Bujold

Good morning. It’s been a volatile day in the markets yesterday as the dollar continues to lose ground against its most counterparts. The setups discussed yesterday played out nicely – but let’s see what story are the charts trying to tell us today

EURUSD

Euro’s recovery continues and resistance around 1.400 acts like a magnet. Short-term bias is bullish and in case of an intraday pullback, I’m expecting 1.3700 to provide support.

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-13-2011

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-13-2011

USDCAD

It looks that a correction is due, in which case it’s best to wait for a test of 1.0250-1.0300 before deciding whether more selling is a good idea. I remain bearish on USDCAD – looking for fresh selling opportunities in the said range of 1.0250-1.0300 or on a new breakdown, below today’s opening price.

US Dollar Vs Canadian Dollar Chart Daily 10-13-2011

US Dollar Vs Canadian Dollar Chart Daily 10-13-2011

AUDUSD

Breaking above parity was easy – but let’s see if the Aussie dollar is able to hold gains now. Minor resistance is near current trading levels, at the 62% retracement value of last down leg. If it pulls back from here, then parity is where to consider new buying opportunities

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-13-2011

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-13-2011

AUDJPY

77.00 was the key resistance here, now it should provide support. Next upside barrier is around the falling trendline connecting recent lower highs.

Australian Dollar Vs Japanese Yen Chart Daily 10-13-2011

Australian Dollar Vs Japanese Yen Chart Daily 10-13-2011

The weekly AUDJPY chart is also interesting, as we’re dealing with a reversal candle (as discussed a few days ago)

Australian Dollar Vs Japanese Yen Chart Weekly 10-13-2011

Australian Dollar Vs Japanese Yen Chart Weekly 10-13-2011

GBPUSD

More or less the same story here – trading at higher levels, but not confirming a new floor. More upside is likely, but we should be cautious about a potential correction soon

British Pound Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-13-2011

British Pound Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-13-2011

AUDNZD

This is another nice setup: as you can see below, resistance provided by recent top has been cleared and the Aussie seems likely to continue strengthening against the NZD

Australian Dollar Vs New Zealand Dollar Chart Daily 10-13-2011

Australian Dollar Vs New Zealand Dollar Chart Daily 10-13-2011

Have a great day!

Euro Holding Gains Below Interim Resistance

Quote of the day: “When the water reaches the upper level, follow the rats.” ~ Claude Swanson

Good morning. The euro still holds gains trading in a narrow range a few points below Monday’s top near $1.3700. Overall short-term sentiment is bullish as long as the pair  holds above 1.3500. Recent intraday pullbacks towards 1.3575/00 have been short-lived, therefore selling at these levels is not the best thing to do right now. Key events of the FX Calendar today are the FOMC Meeting Minutes and Trichet’s speech.

EURUSD

As you can see in the chart below, interim resistance around 1.37 is still under pressure but a more notable barrier stands around 1.400

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-12-2011

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-12-2011

USDCAD

US Dollar’s weakness remains intact and it seems that more downside is likely – towards parity where important support is formed.

US Dollar Vs Canadian Dollar Chart Daily 10-12-2011

US Dollar Vs Canadian Dollar Chart Daily 10-12-2011

AUDUSD

Not much changed since yesterday as resistance remains intact but the pullbacks are short-lived, therefore keeping an eye on resistance at 1.00 – considering new buying opportunities is probably the best thing to do for now.

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-12-2011

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-12-2011

GBPUSD

Resistance around 1.5650 still holds but we’re not far below so there’s still a good chance that price will break higher.

British Pound Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-12-2011

British Pound Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-12-2011

Have a great day!

Tuesday Links 10/11/11

Below are some links to interesting articles I came across today:

Enjoy

Helicopter Vs Ocean

Risk-On Game Continues

Quote of the day:“The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history” ~ Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Good morning. The euro enjoys a rebound as a result of world markets starting the week strong after France and Germany pledged to deliver a plan to support the banking sector. Trichet’s speech is the main highlight of the FX Calendar today.

USD Index

Correction is still underway and it seems that it’s not ending yet, therefore recent top around 76 is where to look for next support

USD Index Chart Daily 10-11-2011

USD Index Chart Daily 10-11-2011

EURUSD

There are no signs of weakness yet so it’s best to wait if you’re looking for selling opportunities. On the other hand, recent rally was quite strong so there’s a good chance that support around 1.3550 will hold for now, so either buying dips or on a break above 1.3680/00 could be a good idea

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 10-11-2011

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 10-11-2011

GBPUSD

Yesterday’s plan to buy on strength is still valid as cable holds gains near resistance and it seems that a breakout is likely

British Pound Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-11-2011

British Pound Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-11-2011

USDCAD

Correction or not – it still feels heavy as expected and Friday’s pin bar proved to be a false signal for the bulls, as price continues to push lower, now testing interim support – as seen in the 4-hrs chart below

US Dollar Vs Canadian Dollar Chart Daily 10-11-2011

US Dollar Vs Canadian Dollar Chart Daily 10-11-2011

4hrs:

US Dollar Vs Canadian Dollar Chart 4hrs 10-11-2011

US Dollar Vs Canadian Dollar Chart 4hrs 10-11-2011

AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar setup looks good, too: parity level is currently providing resistance and a potential break should provide yet another opportunity to join the bulls on this recovery run.

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-11-2011

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-11-2011

Have a great day!

Euro Resumes Correction as Merkel, Sarkozy Reach Agreement

Quote of the day: “There’s no sense in being precise when you don’t even know what you’re talking about.” ~ John von Neumann

Good morning. The euro is climbing towards Friday’s top as the leaders of France and Germany said they have reached an agreement on strengthening Europe’s banking sector – and the European leaders would deliver a plan by the Group of 20, on November 3. Market’s reaction is optimistic but let’s throw up some charts and see what to expect in the coming days:

EURUSD

The trendline connecting recent lower highs is still intact as price pulled back on Friday, but the euro holds gains quite well and it appears that a break of said resistance is likely. Short-term sellers seem to be in stand-by mode

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 10-10-2011

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 10-10-2011

… while longer term sellers are in control:

Euro COT 10-10-2011

Euro COT 10-10-2011

Dollar Index

Keep an eye on support around 78 while it’s being tested. The movement still looks corrective

USD Index Chart Daily 10-10-2011

USD Index Chart Daily 10-10-2011

USDCAD

Selling after forming the reversal candle at 1.0600 was a really good plan but now we have a warning sign formed on Friday. Anyway, price is already retesting recent lows so I think that selling is still the best thing to do

US Dollar Vs Canadian Dollar Chart Daily 10-10-2011

US Dollar Vs Canadian Dollar Chart Daily 10-10-2011

GBPUSD

Cable is back around 1.5650 where upside was capped recently but it seems that a breakout is just around the corner, therefore it’s worth to consider a buying opportunity on the potential break above 1.5650

British Pound Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-10-2011

British Pound Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-10-2011

AUDUSD

There’s probably more upside for the Aussie dollar as the recovery continues, but the ground is still fragile while below parity.

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-10-2011

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-10-2011

have a great day!

Dollar Still in Corrective Mode

Quote of the day: “The real problem is not whether machines think but whether men do.” ~ B. F. Skinner

Good morning. Dollar’s correction continues as the euro recovers from fresh multi-month lows, catching a  bid against most counterparts. Here are some of today’s charts of interest:

USD Index

As seen in the chart below, bias is still bullish and current decline from 80 is likely corrective.

US Dollar Index Chart Daily 10-7-2011

US Dollar Index Chart Daily 10-7-2011

EURUSD

Resistance around 1.3400 is currently providing intraday support and a test of the falling trendline resistance which is connecting previous lower highs is in the cards. Selling on a failed test of the said resistance is a plan to consider right now.

Euro Vs Dollar Chart 4hrs Chart Daily 10-7-2011

Euro Vs Dollar Chart 4hrs Chart Daily 10-7-2011

USDCAD

Support around 1.0300 mentioned in my report yesterday is under pressure as the sell-off continues. A potential break of the said barrier would provide yet another bearish confirmation

US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar Chart Daily 10-7-2011

US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar Chart Daily 10-7-2011

AUDUSD

Aussie’s recovery goes well and there are some more buying opportunities to consider, apart from yesterday’s breakout of .9700. I think that a test of resistance at parity is just around the corner.

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-7-2011

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-7-2011

AUDJPY

Today’s close is likely to provide a decent buying signal (longer term basis), as support formed by the bottom of 2010 holds – so far.

Australian Dollar Vs Japanese Yen Chart Weekly 10-7-2011

Australian Dollar Vs Japanese Yen Chart Weekly 10-7-2011

Silver

Silver is still fragile but recent established support around 31 is one level to consider if you plan to join the bulls.

Silver Chart Daily 10-7-2011

Silver Chart Daily 10-7-2011

Have a great weekend!

Dollar Retreating, Markets Waiting for ECB

Quote of the day:“I think if you do something and it turns out pretty good, then you should go do something else wonderful, not dwell on it for too long. Just figure out what’s next.” ~ Steve Jobs

Good morning. The market is quiet before the ECB rate decision and the press conference later today – other important event of the FX calendar being the Initial Jobless Claims. Let’s take a look at some charts to get a better feel and see if there are any new opportunities:

EURUSD

Daily studies are still bearish as we’re not far away from recent bottom and pressure is likely to remain high. I think that selling is still the best thing to do, but not yet, as bearish signals are not visible and the current recovery is not over.

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-6-2011

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-6-2011

USDCAD

The selling setup I noted in my report yesterday is still in play and looks very good. It’s probably only a correction but there’s still a lot more room to the downside. Keep an eye on support zone around 1.0300 – if it breaks, then the recent top around parity level is the next target to consider

US Dollar Vs Canadian Dollar Chart Daily 10-6-2011

US Dollar Vs Canadian Dollar Chart Daily 10-6-2011

EURCAD

Same story here: another good looking reversal. It is currently testing support, as seen below, and a breakdown would probably accelerate the decline towards 1.36-1.37. Selling on more weakness is the best option, in my opinion Continue reading

Euro Recovers, Still Below Resistance

Quote of the day: “There is no security on this earth, there is only opportunity.” ~ General Douglas MacArthur

Good morning. Monday’s opening price which is providing resistance is currently being tested as the euro recovered some ground, but the daily charts remain bearish as long as there are several resistance layers above current trading zone. The 4-hrs charts are slightly bullish right now and we should keep an eye on this resistance range between 1.3350 and 1.3400:

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 10-5-2011

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 10-5-2011

Current recovery looks like a normal correction, thus looking for new selling opportunities on signs of weakness is probably the best bet for now.

EURGBP

As seen below, the cross is approaching resistance around the 50% retracement value of last up leg. Daily charts are still bearish but in case of a break above this resistance at .8650, buyers may have a good reason to push it higher

Euro Vs British Pound Chart 4hrs 10-5-2011

Euro Vs British Pound Chart 4hrs 10-5-2011

EURJPY

The correction continues after the cross reached a 10-year low but it’s a fragile ground, so in case it retests support around 101.70, selling on the breakdown seems a good option. To the upside, resistance resides around 102.75 and 103.30 (61.8% of recent decline) Continue reading

More Downside Ahead For The Euro

Quote of the day:“The world tolerates conceit from those who are successful, but not from anybody else.” ~ John Blake

Good morning. The ugly gets uglier for the euro as it just reached a 10-year low against the Japanese yen at 100.75 and extended its decline against the dollar to a fresh multi-month low at 1.3165 before pulling back to intraday highs around 1.3220 while writing this. Short-term resistance starts around this week’s opening level at 1.3350 and is followed by 1.3430/50 and 1.3530/50 – as seen below:

EURUSD

Looks very bearish as long as it trades below 1.3350. However, it would remain bearish even in case of a rally to 1.3530, so don’t expect any miracles: rallies, breakdowns = new selling opportunities.

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 10-4-2011

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 10-4-2011

EURJPY

102.00/50 is where to expect the sellers to re-enter the game

Euro Vs Japanese Yen Chart 4hrs 10-4-2011

Euro Vs Japanese Yen Chart 4hrs 10-4-2011

AUDNZD

The short setup signaled by the reversal pin bar, as noted in my post yesterday, looks good so far. I think there’s more downside to be seen, retesting recent bottom support.  Continue reading

Euro Getting Closer to Next Level Down: 1.30

Quote of the day:“Always listen to experts. They’ll tell you what can’t be done and why. Then do it.” ~ Robert Heinlein

Good morning. The euro opened lower this week as Greece acknowledged it would miss the deficit targets agreed as part of July’s bailout package. European finance ministers are meeting today to discuss bailout measures.

EURUSD

Daily, weekly, 4-hrs charts – all look so bad that the only reason to look at them is to identify new levels where to set selling orders.

Euro Vs US Dollar Char 4hrs 10-3-2011

Euro Vs US Dollar Char 4hrs 10-3-2011

 

Euro Vs US Dollar Char Daily 10-3-2011

Euro Vs US Dollar Char Daily 10-3-2011

USD Index

Dollar rallies, retesting recent top side. Break above 80 would be yet another bad news for the stock market

US Dollar Index Chart Daily 10-3-2011

US Dollar Index Chart Daily 10-3-2011

AUDNZD

Continue reading