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Risk-Off Trade Returns

Posted by Liviu on November 1, 2011 – 8:07AM GMT - 158984 CommentsRisk-Off+Trade+Returns2011-11-01+08%3A07%3A43Liviu

Quote of the day: “Everyone is born with genius, but most people only keep it a few minutes.” ~ Edgard Varese

Good morning. Dollar is advancing higher while the euro, Aussie dollar and others are pulling back in risk-off trade as Italian bonds came under renewed pressure yesterday. The euro is already trading well below last week’s pre Brussels agreement market levels. It is a busy week – interest rate decisions being the most important events of the economic calendar, but also the NFP data on Friday.

USD Index

As seen below – the dollar has closed above resistance yesterday and the said line is again providing support. Well, it’s the risk-on / risk-off pattern that dominates the market since the crisis began.

USD Index Chart Daily 11-1-2011

EURUSD

(more…)

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Dollar Recovers on Japan’s Intervention

Posted by Liviu on October 31, 2011 – 8:07AM GMT - 158911 Comment2011-10-31+08%3A07%3A15Liviu

Quote of the day:“One of the lessons of history is that nothing is often a good thing to do and always a clever thing to say.” ~ Will Durant

Good morning. Japan’s intervention to weaken the Yen is today’ hottest topic – USDJPY trading to as high as 79.50 from session lows around 75.50, EURJPY reaching 111.55 from 107, AUDJPY testing offers near 84 a bit earlier today after setting a daily low at 80.70 etc.

AUDJPY

As I pointed out a few days ago, buying the Aussie dollar against the Yen was a better idea than holding USDJPY longs (comparing +12% to +2.4% monthly performance) or buying it every time a record low was established. While it is trading ‘comfortably’ above 80-82, I remain bullish expecting more upside to be seen.

Australian Dollar vs Japanese Yen Chart Daily 10-31-2011

USDJPY

What’s quite interesting about USDJPY today is that according to Oanda’s retail positions figures, the long-to-short positions ratio dropped from 87% as of Friday (pre intervention) to 69% today (post intervention). I don’t have Friday’s graph but you have to take my word for it. What does it mean? well, I’d say that most retail perma-bulls already exited their trades and I’m pretty sure that most targets have been quite modest, such as 50 pips etc. Now, the question is: is it really worth to keep buying it every single day while waiting for BoJ to intervene? it’s not like they do it every week – it’s only their third intervention in a year. (more…)

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Dollar Below Support, EURUSD Jumps Well Above 1.4

Posted by Liviu on October 28, 2011 – 5:59AM GMT - 15881Leave your thoughts2011-10-28+05%3A59%3A38Liviu

Quote of the day:“Time has a wonderful way of showing us what really matters.” ~ Margaret Peters

Good morning. Dollar breached horizontal support yesterday as the euro rallied to as high as $1.4245 from a session low at $1.3865 on euro-zone deal optimism. Large swings can be seen all over the place so let’s take a closer look:

USD Index

Next support is seen around 74, now that we’re back into the range

USD Index Chart Daily 10-28-2011

EURUSD

It will most likely hold above 1.400 in the next days, so it’s probably best to look for buying opportunities on pullbacks.

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-28-2011

One of the levels to keep an eye on if you plan to buy dips is 1.4080

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Hourly 10-28-2011

AUDJPY

As I wrote yesterday, the setup was one of my favourites and when I see it – I’m quite confident that the upcoming breakout would be valid. I expect the Aussie to continue climbing, next upside target being 83 (more…)

- Continue reading: Dollar Below Support, EURUSD Jumps Well Above 1.4

EURUSD Testing 1.400, Risk-On Again

Posted by Liviu on October 27, 2011 – 6:51AM GMT - 158702 CommentsEURUSD+Testing+1.400%2C+Risk-On+Again2011-10-27+06%3A51%3A35Liviu

Quote of the day: “Insanity in individuals is something rare – but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule.” ~ Friedrich Nietzsche

Good morning. The dollar continues to weaken as EUR recovers on news coming from Brussels: EU setting 50% Greek bond writedown, 1 trillion euros in EFSF fund. Let’s see what are some of today’s charts of interest, now that everyone jumped back on the risk-on train:

USD Index

support is being breached and the ugly turns uglier

USD Index Chart Daily 10-27-2011

EURUSD

1.400 is under pressure and it seems that a break is imminent. (more…)

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Euro Holds Gains, Market Awaits Decisions from Brussels Summit

Posted by Liviu on October 26, 2011 – 7:07AM GMT - 15861Leave your thoughts2011-10-26+07%3A07%3A56Liviu

Quote of the day: “For every action there is an equal and opposite government program.” ~ Bob Wells

Good morning. Today is an important day for the euro, as EU leaders are meeting in Brussels to continue negotiations on an agreement to deal with the euro-zone crisis. The euro holds gains around $1.3900, not much changed since yesterday. Well, it’s the market optimism that keeps the market steady these days, so one can expect a large decline if the leaders will eventually fail to announce a concrete plan.

Let’s see what are some of today’s interesting charts:

USD Index

Support at 76 is still intact

US Dollar Index Chart Daily 10-26-2011

EURUSD

The market is rather quiet right now, but the euro maintains gain near 1.400 where key resistance is formed. I think it’s best to wait for the market reaction to news coming from the Brussels Summit.

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 10-26-2011

AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar pulled back to test support at former resistance line. As mentioned yesterday, it’s probably a good level to look for buying opportunities, but careful. I wouldn’t bet on this support level before any news coming from Europe. (more…)

- Continue reading: Euro Holds Gains, Market Awaits Decisions from Brussels Summit

Risk-Off Trade Returns

Dollar Recovers on Japan’s Intervention

Dollar Below Support, EURUSD Jumps Well Above 1.4

EURUSD Testing 1.400, Risk-On Again

Euro Holds Gains, Market Awaits Decisions from Brussels Summit

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