Tuesday Links 7/12/11

Today’s reading list:

Is Currency Trading Worth the Risk? (WSJ)

Credit Suisse: 5 Moves To Euro Endgame (Business Insider)

Willem Buiter Says If ECB Does Not Intervene In Thursday’s Italian Bond Auction, It Will Likely Fail (zero hedge)

Shanky’s Daily Stuff (Shanky’s Tech Blog)

EU Pledges to Support Banks Failing Stress Tests, Rumored to Have Purchased Italian Government Bonds (Mish’s GETA)

Monetary Rage (NY Times)

Breaking the Euro’s Bonds (Macro Man)

Eurozone Leaders Fiddling as Rome Starts to Burn? (naked capitalism)

11 Timely Insights From George Soros On The Economy (Business Insider)

The 20 Most-Shared Video Ads This Month (Mashable)

Is Google+ a bigger threat to Twitter than it is to Facebook? (Gigaom)

10 Privacy Tools To Browse The Web Anonymously (Smashing Apps)

9 Houses You Won’t Believe People Actually Live In (Cracked)

Enjoy

EURUSD Below Yearly Median Support

Quote of the day: “A man may well bring a horse to the water but he cannot make him drink.” – John Heywood

Good morning. I am aware that not all of you are regular readers of posts in the Links category, so I’m letting you know that I can share some Google+ invitations with you. If you want one just let me know by posting a comment below using your gmail address or by dropping me a quick line with the gmail address you’d like to use.

EURUSD – 1.3880 @07:20 GMT

The euro is still in free-fall mode as Italy is in focus on concern that the Euro-zone crisis will spread to larger economies. However, EURUSD is still trading at high levels on YTD basis, but the EURCHF is the real horror chart as the pair is trading to record lows and doesn’t seem to take a breath yet – currently testing bids around 1.1645. Median retracement value of this year’s EURUSD rally from 1.2870 to 1.4940 is being tested today at 1.3900 and it looks fragile so far, now that we’re already below the 1.400 psychological barrier and also a major support/resistance line formed by the peaks of 2010’s October-November, also recent support since breaking above in March (see weekly chart below). I’m not going to question whether this 50% retracement value is going to hold or not, but one thing is certain: things are turning uglier. Looking at intra-day charts – in case we’ll see a pullback to the upside, I guess that 1.400-1.4050 will provide a decent selling point in the next trading sessions. The US Trade Balance figure and FOMC Meeting Minutes are the key events in the economic calendar today.

Trading strategy: looking to sell on pullback to 1.400, initial stop at 1.4060 (0.5% risk), target open

Support: 1.3900, 1.3850 and 1.3800
Resistance: 1.3975, 1.4000/30, 1.4050 and 1.4100
Market sentiment: long term – mixed, medium term – bullish, short term – bearish, intraday – bearish

EURUSD hourly chart 7-12-2011
EURUSD hourly chart 7-12-2011
EURUSD daily chart 7-12-2011
EURUSD daily chart 7-12-2011
EURUSD weekly chart 7-12-2011
EURUSD weekly chart 7-12-2011

have a good day!

Monday Links 7/11/11

Some articles to start the week with:

by the way, if you want a Google+ invitation, let me know and I’ll send you one. Either post a comment below using your gmail address so I can see it or contact me

Stealth Technology
Stealth Technology

EURUSD Testing Key Trendline Support

Quote of the day: “Even if you’re on the right track, you’ll get run over if you just sit there.” – Will Rogers

EURUSD – 1.4193 @06:30 GMT

Good morning. As you can see, the site has been revamped and redesigned over the weekend and cleaned up a bit, I hope you enjoy the changes. If you notice any errors or bugs, please let me know. Ok, back to charts now. The NFP figure was quite ugly so the markets went into risk-off mode on Friday, EURUSD following a basket of risk sensitive pairs to the downside after spiking to sessions highs around 1.4350. Selling into short-lived rallies or a break below 1.43, as noted on my Friday post, was the best thing to do – and nothing changed yet, so if one is looking to buy dips, I’m afraid the odds are against him. Support formed by the rising trendline connecting previous higher lows, as seen in the daily chart below, is currently being tested and a breakdown might turn ugly for the euro, extending the sell-off to 1.400 where next support resides. I’d much prefer a corrective rally from current levels in order to find a better selling level, therefore I’ll be watching the 1.4300 handle if the euro catches a bid.

Trading strategy: looking to sell on potential pullback to 1.4300, initial stop at 1.4360 (0.5% risk), target open

Support: 1.4150, 1.4100 and 1.400
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4300, 1.4340/65 and 1.4400
Market sentiment: long term – mixed, medium term – bullish, short term – bearish, intraday – bearish

EURUSD daily chart 7-11-2011
EURUSD daily chart 7-11-2011
EURUSD hourly chart 7-11-2011
EURUSD hourly chart 7-11-2011

Have a sunny day and trade safe!

Sunday Links 7/10/11

Today’s reading list:

Things That Make You Go Hmmm – The Past, Present And Future Of The Dollar (zero hedge)

The New “New Wall Street Reality” (zero hedge)

The Unemployed Somehow Became Invisible (NY Times)

Boehner abandons efforts to reach comprehensive debt-reduction deal (The Washington Post)

US Jobs: How many ways to say ugly? (Global Post)

The European project is doomed without reform (Credit Writedowns)

The Real Unemployment Scandal? (zero hedge)

15 Accidentally Awesome Inventions (Business Pundit)

Hope of the Lone Pine: As Tree Clings to Life, So Does Japanese City (WSJ)

The Final Space Shuttle Mission (National Geographic)

Fukushima plant operator uses modded robot vacuum to suck up radioactive dirt (video) (Engadget)

Cat Saturday Gallery (Chive)

35 Weirdest Fashion Looks Ever (Damn Cool Pictures)

Fashion Fail
Fashion Fail

 

Enjoy

EURUSD Up After ECB / Trichet, Calm Ahead of NFP

Quote of the day: “When you have an efficient government, you have a dictatorship.” – Harry S Truman

EURUSD – 1.4348 @07:26 GMT

Good morning. Euro is back to Wednesday’s levels after the ECB raised interest rates to 1.5% as expected, signaled and further hike is likely and more importantly – suspended the collateral rules for Portugal, which means easier funding for Portugal as the Portuguese banks will not be cut off from central bank funds. The ongoing reversal doesn’t come as a surprise, since it was quite likely that the rate hike and Trichet’s speech would halt euro’s free-fall but the question is whether or not the euro will continue the recovery started yesterday. Frankly, it seems like a short-term pullback and I don’t feel confident about it. Technically, we now have a nice reversal candle on the daily charts suggesting a retest of 1.45 soon, but on the other hand we have all the concerns over the Eurozone situation which is fueling selling into rallies as seen in the last couple of weeks. But let’s not forget that the dollar is not in a better shape either, therefore we’re basically still comparing bad apples to bad oranges so let’s not claim that one of them is ripe. I for one remain bearish on EURUSD but more cautious than usual while yesterday’s long tail candle/pin bar suggests that a reversal is in place. Being a fan of such patterns, I am considering a small long position on the break above 1.4375, while being ready to switch side as soon as the market resumes the decline. My most recent position was a short at 1.4295 yesterday, which I closed at breakeven on euro’s recovery from 1.4220. Today is the NFP day – most important event in the economic calendar – so the market is likely to be calm until the US session kicks in.

Trading strategy: looking to buy a small size at 1.4380 with a stop at 1.4340 (0.3% risk), target at 1.4500. A break below 1.43 is what I look for to indicate a potential selling scenario.

Support: 1.4300/20 and 1.4280 and 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4370/80, 1.4400, 1.4430/65, 1.4500, 1.4550/75, 1.4600 and 1.4700
Market sentiment: long term – mixed, medium term – bullish, short term – bearish, intraday – bearish

EURUSD daily chart 7-8-2011
EURUSD daily chart 7-8-2011
EURUSD 4hrs chart 7-8-2011
EURUSD 4hrs chart 7-8-2011

have a great day and trade safe!

Thursday Links 7/07/11

Today’s good stuff from around the web:

The 18 Countries With the Greatest (and Fastest Growing) Risk of Default (The Atlantic)

ECB raises eurozone interest rates to 1.5% (BBC News)

ECB’s Press Release On Portuguese Rating Threshold Suspension Until Further Notice (Zero Hedge)

ECB Suspends Collateral Rules for Portuguese Debt, Hikes Rates .25; Trichet Says “No” to Selective Default, Market Yawns (Mish’s GETA)

Fear of Junk Status: Europe Seeks to Free Itself from Rating Agencies’ Grip (Spiegel)

China’s competitive advantage (Physorg)

Climate change will increase threat of war, Chris Huhne to warn (Guardian)

10 Ridiculous Earth & Moon Theories People Believe (ThumbPress)

Obama to Push for Wider Deal With G.O.P. on Deficit Cuts (NY Times)

Facebook, Skype: Facebook unveils video chat with Skype (LA Times)

Trichet Extends Hand to Portugal as ECB Raises Rates (WSJ)

The Sovereign Debt Crisis Is Never Going To End Until There Is A Major Global Financial Collapse (Economic Collapse Blog)

First and Always, Price (The Big Picture)

Google Maps For Android Now Lets You Download Maps For Offline Viewing (Hallelujah!) (TechCrunch)

Arizona dust storm is proof that I will never move to Arizona (Chive)

Enjoy

Pre-ECB Decision Links

more on today’s hottest topic, the ECB Interest Rate Decision:

Trichet Fights a War on Two Fronts (Bloomberg)

ECB to raise rates, play hardball on Greece (Reuters)

Euro may lose drive after expected ECB rate hike (Reuters)

ECB Could Hike Two Times This Year (CNBC)

Signals to Expect From ECB’s Trichet (WSJ)

Look away now: More bad news as mortgage interest rates rise (Joe)

EURUSD: ECB Interest Decision Day is Here

Quote of the day: “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” – George Santayana

EURUSD – 1.4342 @06:32 GMT

[polldaddy poll=5212917]

Good morning. The big day for the euro is here, as the ECB is expected to raise interest rates by 25-bps to 1.5% a bit later today. Will it help the euro to recover after this week’s 300 points decline? Well, at this point it looks weak and the support zone formed by the 50% and 62% fibs of last up leg is currently being tested. Judging by how things are, considering the ongoing concerns over the euro zone’s periphery, I think it’s best to sell minor rallies or breakdowns – such as this fib support zone in case it breaks. Except for the ECB’s rate decision, other important event in the economic calendar is the US Initial Jobless Claims.

Trading strategy: looking to sell on potential pullback to 1.4400, initial stop at 1.4460 (0.5% risk), target open. Also considering a short into the 1.4290 region with an initial stop at 1.4350 if the decline resumes.

Support: 1.4300/20 and 1.4280 and 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4400, 1.4430/65, 1.4500, 1.4550/75, 1.4600 and 1.4700
Market sentiment: long term – mixed, medium term – bullish, short term – bearish, intraday – bearish

EURUSD 4hrs chart 7-7-2011
EURUSD 4hrs chart 7-7-2011
EURUSD daily chart 7-7-2011
EURUSD daily chart 7-7-2011

Have a nice day and trade safe!

EURUSD Under Pressure, Support Around 1.4450 Broken

Quote of the day:“Advice is what we ask for when we already know the answer but wish we didn’t.” – Erica Jong

EURUSD – 1.4384 @07:45 GMT

Morning. Euro is pulling back, retesting 1.4400 at time of writing as the overnight was capped by 1.4465. The sell-off is fuelled by worries over Portugal, which has been downgraded by Moody’s to BA2, or junk. I entered a small long position on yesterday’s test of 1.4400 as planned, but closed it already for minimal gain because I didn’t like how the charts looked like. I think it’s best to look for selling opportunities now, but keeping in mind that ECB’s rate hike is just around the corner and it could limit losses. Anyway, it’s always better to follow the market instead of going against it hoping that some big thing (i.e.: a central bank) will do something to help a counter-trend position.

Trading strategy: looking to sell at 1.4430, initial stop at 1.4490 (0.5% risk), target open

Support: 1.4340, 1.4300/20 and 1.4280 and 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4430/65, 1.4500, 1.4550/75, 1.4600 and 1.4700
Market sentiment: long term – mixed, medium term – bullish, short term – bullish, intraday – bearish

EURUSD 4hrs chart 7-6-2011
EURUSD 4hrs chart 7-6-2011
EURUSD daily chart 7-6-2011
EURUSD daily chart 7-6-2011

have a great day!