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Euro Recovering Ahead of German Vote; Markets Under Pressure After Another Sell-Off

Quote of the day: “Nothing great was ever created by waiting around for someone to tell you it’s all going to be okay or for perfect information to drop from the sky” ~ Jonathan Fields

Good morning. The markets pulled back yesterday in risk-off trade but the euro is currently recovering ahead of German lawmakers vote on changes to the European bailout fund. Some of recent reversal patterns  highlighted two days ago are still in play although momentum has lost traction after yesterday’s sell-off. All eyes are on euro these days, especially due to German vote. Other important events of today’s economic calendar are the Initial Jobless Claims and the GDP later today in the US.

EURUSD

Still looking for direction as both support and resistance hold. Upside is slightly favored at time of writing, therefore keep an eye on resistance around 1.37

Euro vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 9-29-2011

Euro vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 9-29-2011

GBPUSD

Similar story here as cable is retesting resistance after pulling back in recent trading sessions. A plan to consider is to look for buying opportunities on rallies above 1.5670/00 where first resistance resides.

British Pound Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 9-29-2011

British Pound Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 9-29-2011

AUDNZD

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- Continue reading: Euro Recovering Ahead of German Vote; Markets Under Pressure After Another Sell-Off

Dollar’s Correction Continues, Reversal Patterns Still Valid

Quote of the day: “Never trouble another for what you can do for yourself.” ~ Thomas Jefferson

Good morning. The dollar pulled back yesterday, forming several reversal signals across the board as everything is correlated these days. Yesterday’s setups are still in play although most of them don’t look as good as I wanted yet, but it’s really worth keeping an eye on them. Some of you, regular readers, might already know that I’m not a fan of correlations because you’re likely to put all eggs in same basket no matter how many currency pairs your trading platforms provides. Some would argue that there’s an advantage when the market goes your way, so if you are into several highly correlated trades, you would make a good profit. In theory yes, but in practice – as much as it might sound like Murphy’s Law – things are likely to turn bad more often than good if you put several/all eggs in the same basket. So the best option would be, in my opinion, to focus only on the best setups although there are several (almost) identical when you scan the charts, eventually increase the position sizes to reflect the level of confidence you have at that time, instead of opening several trades in different highly correlated pairs. Bernanke will speak in Cleveland later today – this being the most important event of the economic calendar

Now let’s take a look at today’s charts of interest:

EURUSD

Although the market is getting some relief, the euro remains very fragile and keep in mind that current EURUSD recovery is caused by other assets appreciating against the dollar, thus dollar losing ground – EURUSD strengthening. As you can see in the hourly chart below, the support zone around 1.3550 is currently being tested and the pair will remain slightly bullish on short term basis as long as the said level holds. Selling on the potential break below is an option to consider.

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Hourly 9-28-2011

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Hourly 9-28-2011

And here is the euro index chart – just be aware what you’re doing and what to expect if you’re planning to buy dips

Euro Index Chart Daily 9-28-2011

Euro Index Chart Daily 9-28-2011

and the other bad apple dollar index, which looks much better than the euro these days (at least on a short term perspective)

Dollar Index Chart Daily 9-28-2011

Dollar Index Chart Daily 9-28-2011

AUDUSD

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- Continue reading: Dollar’s Correction Continues, Reversal Patterns Still Valid

Dollar Pulling Back: Several Reversal Patterns Are Seen

Quote of the day: “Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong.” ~ Oscar Wilde

Good morning. Several reversal signals can be found across the charts today as the dollar is pulling back against most counterparts. Let’s see which are the best charts to watch right now.  Similar setups to these below can be seen in other crosses such as NZD, AUD and GBP ones. Keep in mind that they’re all highly correlated so basically if it’s a false reversal signal, all setups below (including others in NZD, AUD, GBP etc) will turn out to be bad.

EURUSD

There were several selling opportunities around resistance zone at 1.3530 but it seems that the recovery is likely to continue, as price breaks above 1.3550. However, selling on weakness is still the better option for now

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Hourly 9-27-2011

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Hourly 9-27-2011

Gold

Support was confirmed around 1550 and we can see a large pin bar suggesting that the recovery is likely to continue. As mentioned yesterday - buying seems a good idea as long as it holds above 1550

Gold Chart Daily 9-27-2011

Gold Chart Daily 9-27-2011

Silver

Silver is also looking good if you’re considering to buy the dip after the huge decline.

Silver Chart Daily 9-27-2011

Silver Chart Daily 9-27-2011

AUDUSD

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- Continue reading: Dollar Pulling Back: Several Reversal Patterns Are Seen

Euro Remains Heavy on More Greek Default Fears

Quote of the day: “Free advice is worth the price.” ~ Robert Half

Good morning. Things are getting uglier for the euro on more sovereign default worries. European and IMF experts return to Athens this week for a fiscal audit in order to decide whether Greece can dodge default. German Ifo Business Climate is the main event of today’s economic calendar. Let’s see what are the most interesting charts today and what trading setups are worth your attention

EURUSD

former support at 1.3500/30 is now providing the first short-term resistance. However, it should be quite difficult to climb that high – given current downside pressure – but it case it does, signs of weakness are what to look for before joining the bears

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 9-26-2011

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 9-26-2011

The weekly chart is quite interesting, as seen below – the euro is breaching below the median retracement value of the entire upward move. In theory – 1.3000/80 is likely to be the next target.

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Weekly 9-26-2011

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Weekly 9-26-2011

EURAUD

The breakout mentioned in my previous report was a great setup as the euro rallied far above former resistance at 1.3450. Anyway, there are no signs of exhaustion yet and it seems that a new breakout is in the cards – this time above a more important level: 1.3850

Euro Vs Australian Dollar Chart Daily 9-26-2011

Euro Vs Australian Dollar Chart Daily 9-26-2011

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- Continue reading: Euro Remains Heavy on More Greek Default Fears

EURUSD Imploding After Filling the Gap

Quote of the day:“The difference between the right word and the almost right word is the difference between lightning and a lightning bug.” ~ Mark Twain

Good morning. Dollar strengthened across the board as a reaction to Fed being pessimistic about the U.S. economy. The Fed aims to lower long-term lending rates by swapping $400 billion in short-term bonds for long-term bonds of maturity from 6 to 30 years: action called Operation Twist II as it is similar to a move in the 1960s named after the popular dance craze.

EURUSD

Monday’s opening gap was finally filled yesterday as the market rallied ahead of FOMC but found resistance around 1.3800. As noted in my report yesterday and earlier this week, the potential gap fill level could have been a good entry for bears – and it was. As seen on the chart below, 61.8% retracement value of last leg down was in the same region and the more technical/key levels are clustered together – the stronger that support/resistance level is. There is no magic about reversing around 1.38 after filling the gap: it was just good timing.

Last week’s lower zone is being tested and there is no sign of bottoming yet. In case of a pullback to the upside, 1.3630-1.3660 is where to look for next selling opportunity.

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 9-22-2011

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 9-22-2011

EURAUD

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- Continue reading: EURUSD Imploding After Filling the Gap

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