Quote of the day: “There is no harm in being sometimes wrong – especially if one is promptly found out.” – John Maynard Keynes
EURUSD – 1.4673 @07:18 GMT
Hello. I hope you had a nice Easter weekend. The Economic Calendar is quite busy in the coming days and today’s Fed’s rate decision and statement is one of those events everyone is waiting for. The dollar continues to lose ground across the board as the EUR was trading into the 1.47 region earlier today. However, trading will probably be quiet until later today. The daily charts remain bullish and we now have support around 1.4520 which was a stable resistance level in the first half of April, before resuming uptrend after bouncing off lower support at 1.42. In case of a pullback from current levels, the same 1.4520/50 is where to look for new buying opportunities. Looking higher, above 1.47 there’s no important resistance level up to 1.50 which is both a psychological barrier and the top side of 2009 (best seen on the weekly charts how the euro faced selling pressure when reaching fresh highs). If you are more concerned about hourly charts, then it’s a good idea to keep an eye on first intraday support at 1.4600/30 formed by previous tops and the median retrace value of yesterday’s rally from 1.4490 to 1.4710 (see chart below). Personally, I prefer to wait the Fed statement before considering any trades; but judging by how charts look like at this moment, I’m more inclined to look for buying opportunities either on a breakout above 1.47 or pullback to 1.46 or lower, to 1.4520/50, considering selling on the break of support at 1.4520.
Quote of the day: “Avoid having your ego so close to your position that when your position falls, your ego goes with it.” – Colin Powell
EURUSD – 1.4615 @07:00 GMT
Good morning. As commodities are reaching new record highs against the dollar, there’s only one way the EURUSD can go. Now that $1.45 has been breached, the pair aims towards 2009’s top side around 1.51. Meanwhile, the USD Index which is negatively correlated to EURUSD is already trading below 2009 lows, so we can look a bit lower at the bottom established in 2008. I for one expect to trade at those levels in the next few months. But speaking of today’s market conditions, there are few important events in the Forex Calendar before entering the Easter prolonged weekend starting tomorrow: one being the German Ifo at 09:00 GMT and the second one being the US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT. Buying on pullbacks and breakouts remain the two best things to do for now, in my opinion.
Trading strategy: looking to buy on potential pullback to 1.4570, stop at 1.3510 (0.5% risk), target at 1.4690
Quote of the day: “Hegel was right when he said that we learn from history that man can never learn anything from history.” – George Bernard Shaw
EURUSD – 1.4418 @07:00 GMT
Good morning. I was wrong yesterday expecting the interim/pivotal resistance at 1.4350 to hold and EUR to extend correction. It has already recovered most of recent losses and is currently establishing support above 1.4350-1.44, so we can keep our eye on recent top which is not far away. Short-term studies are slightly bullish but the pair should hold above 1.4350 in the next trading sessions in order to conserve momentum, therefore looking for buying opportunities on minor pullbacks towards 1.4350 seems a good plan at this point.
Trading strategy: looking to buy at 1.4355 on potential pullback, initial stop at 1.4295 (0.5% risk), target open
Good morning. The euro fell across the board on sovereign debt concerns, breaking below interim support at 1.4350 to test a more notable support into the 1.4200-1.4250 region. S&P’s downgrade of U.S. credit outlook to negative has sent the risk sensitive currency pairs into freefall – EURUSD following EURJPY which has pulled back from 120 to mid 116, not far above 115 where key support / former resistance resides. Both daily and weekly charts of EURUSD are showing weakness signs and near term bias remains to the downside as long as we don’t see a convincing break over former support at 1.4350, eventually. Meanwhile, I think it’s worth to consider selling opportunities both on pullbacks to the upside and a break below recent low at 1.4160.
Trading strategy: Looking to sell on potential pullback to 1.4300, initial stop at 1.4360 (0.5% risk), target open
Hello. Equity markets and risk sensitive currencies are melting down today as S&P cuts U.S. outlook to negative. If you want to take a break from watching the charts for fresh daily lows, here’s the Monday dose of links:
Quote of the day: “I say luck is when an opportunity comes along, and you’re prepared for it.” – Denzel Washington
EURUSD – 1.4377 @06:28 GMT
Good morning. The euro starts the week under pressure, testing support into the 1.4350-1.4380 zone, extending Friday’s decline from 1.4500. My initial plan to buy on the break above 1.4500 was not fulfilled but selling on break below 1.4450 was a good idea. Now that the weakness signs are quite obvious, I think it’s better to look for selling opportunities either on upside pullbacks or breakdowns – and 1.4350 is the support level to keep an eye on in the coming trading sessions. Today’s notable event in the Forex Calendar is Fed’s Fisher speech.
Trading strategy: Looking to sell on potential pullback to 1.4420, initial stop at 1.4480 (0.5% risk), target open