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Risk On in The First Week of 2012

“The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.” – Bertrand Russell

Good morning and Happy New Year to all – may this year bring you joy, happiness and all you hope for! Currency pairs started moving again and there should be lots of trading opportunities in the coming months. On near term basis – Friday’s NFP is the most important data release in this first week of 2012.

USD Index

Dollar starts the year retreating from recent top zone as risk trade picks up

USD Index Chart Daily 1-4-2012

USD Index Chart Daily 1-4-2012

EURUSD

Euro benefits from current risk appetite, following the Aussie dollar and world stocks. Threats of new euro zone sovereign downgrades might keep the euro vulnerable to more sell-offs. I remain bearish on EUR (short and medium term) but I rather wait for a strong catalyst to trigger the next selling round. Meanwhile, keep an eye on 1.3100

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 1-4-2012

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 1-4-2012

AUDJPY

Decline to 77 (point C) was corrective and upside is back in focus, so 80-80.50 is the next objective to watch.

Australian Dollar Vs Japanese Yen Chart Daily 1-4-2012

Australian Dollar Vs Japanese Yen Chart Daily 1-4-2012

AUDUSD

AUDUSD is a bit faster than AUDJPY these days, and already breached above recent top side. The trendline connecting recent lower highs, such as above, is the next barrier to keep an eye on.

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 1-4-2012

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 1-4-2012

Silver

Silver (daily) is one of the interesting charts to see these days. Recovery from 26 has been rather strong and doesn’t seem to run out of steam yet, so it’s worth keeping an eye on 30 – buying on the break, eventually.

Silver Chart Daily 1-4-2012

Silver Chart Daily 1-4-2012

Not much to see in other charts right now – same corrective patterns are seen everywhere. This is all for now – have a great day!

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5 Responses to Risk On in The First Week of 2012

  1. ghibly says:

    EUS/USD bounced back from resistance and breached short term support line.
    Guess more bears are coming ahead.

    • liviu says:

      yep, it seems to be climbing only as a result of following risk currencies (AUD). No other reason to recover / i.e. no good news coming from Europe except some rumors every now and then (none so far this year, apparently rumor mill is still in Holiday)

      Anyway, still has some potential to extend recovery as equities and AUD are in correction mode today after strong gains yesterday – so they're likely to continue recovery ahead of NFP

  2. KBFOREX says:

    Hi liviu,happy new year to you and all on this site.
    i sincerelly want to thank you for your daily market ideas , it has really helped me.
    i can only thank you n wish well i life.
    thanks
    kbforex from london

  3. luck007 says:

    you post useful, i get important message now from your blog.thanks

  4. Pingback: Dollar Still in Range, Euro Under Pressure Before French Bond Sales | innerfx.com

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