Hello. I’ll post some interesting short-term setups developing these days; perhaps they are worth your attention. I’m starting with EURGBP. More to come
EURGBP
As you can notice in the daily chart (1st below), the uptrend established after breaking above .8530/50 at the beginning of March is quite stable and all the minor pullbacks were short-lived. There’s a good chance that the former resistance around .8650 (horizontal line on the chart) will provide support on current pullback.
- EURGBP daily chart 3-22-2011
Hourly chart (1 month zoom):
- EURGBP short-term chart 3-22-2011
The weekly chart is even more interesting. We see that the trendline connecting previous lower-highs is intact but it’s early to say that current test has failed. If the trendline breaks, I think that the pair has a good chance to reach .9500 quite fast.
- EURGBP weekly chart 3-22-2011
Let’s zoom out to have a better look and see the trend continuation pattern:
- EURGBP long-term chart 3-22-2011
Long-term chart above suggests uptrend to continue.
It doesn’t happen too often too look at daily, weekly and hourly charts and see that they’re all bullish and a major breakout is possible soon. That’s why I think it’s a good buying opportunity, either at current levels or on strength – when/if .8700-.8750 will be reached again, confirming that current movement towards .8650 was corrective. My plan is to look for a buying opportunity around .8720, with an initial stop at .8620 (1% risk)
What do you think?
Portugal austerity vote will be important for both EUR and GBP. If they approve all austerity measures (which would of course be the stupid thing to do), then long EUR/GBP should be fine I would think.
yep, all eyes are on the austerity vote. Anyway I think that EURGBP will go North, maybe not today or in the very next sessions, but soon.
I have a trend line going back to Dec 2008, which says you are wrong :-) It seems to have stalled right on the trend line.
In fact if you take the lower trend line and the upper one, we are in a giant triangle pattern going back over 2 years. I think we break down here, and 0.85 being the apex of the triangle will determine direction.
Place your bets …
BTW: I really hate this commenting system. Why can I not just automatically subscribe to all replies and comments, and not have to put my email in each time. Why don't you use Disqus ?
The giant triangle is the same in my charts, too (above)? I think it's time to break it :)
I tried Disqus and I don't like it. I had problems with it.
IntenseDebate is developed by Automattic, the company behind WordPress. So the integration with WP is a lot better, less bugs/problems etc.
To subscribe to replies you need an IntenseDebate account. It takes a minute to create one and I'm sure you'll get to use it on other sites, as Intense Debate is growing in popularity
what do you think about Silver and Gold?
Nice charting Liviu. I can see your thought process. Sadly as we have discussed in the past, not sure how reliable charts are these days. If any of the PIIGS go down (Portugal or Ireland especially now) that will change the outlook drastically.
I may be dead nuts wrong, but I think the EUR/USD tops here near 1.42 then gets crushed. 1.37, 1.25 then 1.16. If not here 1.45 should be max. Just my opinion.
hey Shanky, I'm not good at picking tops or bottoms and most of the times I just follow it where it's going, even if the movements are irrational in my opinion.
I bet you a beer that it's going up (over 1.45 before collapsing). Would you join the Booze Exchange Market? :)
Re €/$ — I’ll sleep on that and get back to you.
Great call! Woke up this morning to find myself on the wrong side of the trade. Lesson learned is to do more DD before committing. Thanks for the reminder that long term charts do have relevance.
it's too early for this to be a good call because I'm looking for a few hundred pips target
hey Liviu :-)
what do you think USDCHF would head towards? if the EUR is going up; the negative correlation factor can lead USDCHF down then? if yes to what levels?
yes, it will go down as long as Swiss franc and Japanese yen are the safe-haven currencies; while the Fed continues to print money; while the EU won't solve the debt problems etc.
It's impossible to know when these things will come to an end and how much the CHF will gain in the meantime. So I really have no idea to what levels it will continue to decline – but I do hope it will turn around someday, because that will most likely happen when/if the world will get out of this mess
Pingback: Setups Worth Watching 3/24/11 – EURGBP Update and USDPLN Short Opportunity | FX Trading Blog - innerfx.com