Tag Archives: Bernanke

Midweek Charts to Watch

Good morning. I’ve been away for a while, but looking at current charts, it doesn’t seem that I missed anything interesting. Let’s take a closer look at today’s charts to see if there are any good trading opportunities.

EURUSD

EUR looks bullish against the USD on both intraday and short-term basis, so buying dips in case of a correction to 1.2950 or buying on the break of 1.3000/15 intraday resistance are two plans to consider. Maybe today’s Bernanke’s speech will be the catalyst fueling a dollar decline?

Market sentiment: intraday – bullish, short-term – bullish
Potential trade strategy: to buy dips on pullback to 1.2950, target at 1.3050+. Second plan is to buy on rally above 1.3015/30, target at 1.3100

EURUSD daily 12-12-2012

EURUSD daily 12-12-2012

hourly chart: Continue reading

Tuesday Charts That Matter

Good morning. The euro keeps climbing higher, flirting with $1.300 on Greek optimism. Bernanke’s speech is today’s notable event

EURUSD

As seen on the chart below, there are no important barriers up to around 1.3130 which is the recent top.

Market sentiment: intraday – bullish, short-term – bullish
Potential trade strategy: to buy dips at 1.2950, target at 1.3050+

EURUSD daily 11-27-2012

EURUSD daily 11-27-2012

GBPUSD

Cable is still trading within the downward channel but is now testing resistance formed by the downward trendline connecting recents highs. So the question is whether the channel will remain intact or not. A daily close above the resistance is what I’m looking for before considering a bullish position

Market sentiment: intraday – bullish, short-term – bearish
Potential trade strategy: to buy after a potential daily close above 1.6050-1.6100, target at 1.6250 Continue reading

Thursday Charts

Good morning. Euro recovered some ground across the board mainly due to EURJPY rallying on prospects Japanese elections next month will result in aggressive monetary easing. USDJPY also rallied well above 80.00 – reaching levels last seen in April. There are several important economic events today, such as the US CPI, initial jobless claims and – more importantly – Bernanke’s speech.

EURUSD

Resistance at 1.2775/00 is still intact after recent test, when a reversal candle was formed

Market sentiment: intraday – bearish, short-term – bearish
Potential trade strategy: to hold short while 1.2775/00 is intact, target at 1.2600

EURUSD hourly 11-15-2012

EURUSD hourly 11-15-2012

EURJPY

The reversal candle formed near support at 100 is the one I was waiting to see in my previous article. What happened next was an 200+ points rally.

Market sentiment: intraday – bullish, short-term – bullish
Potential trade strategy: to hold long, target above 104 Continue reading

Midweek Charts of Interest 7/18/12

Good morning. Euro holds onto gains after yesterday’s recovery from $1.2185 – level reached after the fast plunge of 1 big figure in one hour.

Today’s important events: UK MPC Meeting Minutes, Bernanke’s Testimony, BoC Monetary Policy Report (see FX Calendar for details)

EURUSD

Recovery is likely to continue, at least that’s what the 4hrs and daily charts suggest

Market sentiment: intraday – bullish, short-term – bearish

Potential trade strategy:  to sell into rallies towards 1.2380-1.2400, targeting 1.2200 and below. Another plan is to buy on strength above current top side around $1.2310

eurusd hourly 7-18-2012

eurusd hourly 7-18-2012

Recovery continuation patterns are seen on both 4hrs and daily charts:

eurusd 4hrs 7-18-2012

eurusd 4hrs 7-18-2012

daily chart: Continue reading

Sunday Satire: The Financial World Through the Eyes of an Artist

Here’s more of williambanzai7’s work. In case you missed the 1st compilation, check it here: Tuesday’s Satire: The Financial World Through the Eyes of an Artist

You can find a lot more of William’s work on his site or his Flickr page, and also follow him on Twitter or Facebook.

Enjoy

Too big to fail

Too Big to Fail

Too Big to Fail

The Ponzi’s about to set sail
They call her the “Too Big To Fail”
If it starts to sink
Ben’s there in a wink
And shouts out the order to “bail”

The Limerick King

Captain Jamie Madoff

Captain Jamie Madoff

Captain Jamie Madoff

Al-Ponzi most wanted list Continue reading

Dollar Down Ahead of ECB Cash Injection

Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple. ~ Dr. Seuss

Good morning. The euro is consolidating gains near $1.3500 ahead of ECB cash injection of 500 billion euros according to expectations. Other important events on today’s economic calendar are the US GDP  data and Bernanke’s testimony. Let’s see what are some of the charts worth keeping an eye on

USD Index

Support around 78 is now under heavy pressure as the dollar continues to trade lower, while EURUSD maintains altitude near $1.3500 ahead of LTRO 2.0

USD Index Daily 2-29-2012

USD Index Daily 2-29-2012

EURUSD

Euro found support around 1.3380/00 so the entire recovery resumed on February 16 is intact. Today’s ECB action should push it above 1.3500 but it depends on the total funds injected, as a 500 billion figure is likely priced in already so it’s best to wait and see. Wondering what’s above $1.35? well, not much until $1.40

EURUSD 4hrs chart 2-29-2012

EURUSD 4hrs chart 2-29-2012

The potential breakout is more obvious on the daily chart as this is the 3rd daily attempt to break higher. Last decline was short-lived. One plan to consider is buying on the break above 1.3500 in the next sessions

EURUSD Chart Daily 2-29-2012

EURUSD Chart Daily 2-29-2012

GBPUSD

As noted on Monday, cable joined the breakout watchlist as it approached 1.5900. Now it is trading higher and I think there’s more room for recovery

GBPUSD Chart Daily 2-29-2012

GBPUSD Chart Daily 2-29-2012

Silver

Buying silver was (and still is) one of the best bets. As seen below, since the recovery started on December 29, all corrections were short-lived, so it was best to either buy dips or on strength/breakouts. I don’t think that the recovery has come to an end, hence I remain bullish, expecting a new breakout – above 62% fib

Silver Chart Daily 2-29-2012

Silver Chart Daily 2-29-2012

EURAUD

I was expecting 1.2500 to provide support after the break but I was wrong, the sell-off was just too strong.

EURAUD Chart Daily 2-29-2012

EURAUD Chart Daily 2-29-2012

Minor support around 1.2420 is still intact at time of writing but it’s probably a good idea to consider buying opportunities only higher – if EUR returns above 1.25

EURAUD Chart 4hrs 2-29-2012

EURAUD Chart 4hrs 2-29-2012

AUDUSD

Aussie dollar is another pair on the breakout watchlist as current top is under pressure and a re-test of 1.100 might be just around the corner.

AUDUSD Chart Daily 2-29-2012

AUDUSD Chart Daily 2-29-2012

have a great day!

 

Wednesday Links 11/02/11

Here’s a couple of links you might enjoy

and two must-watch videos

European bailout explained:

Nassim Taleb – The Banks Have Hijacked the Government:

Have a great evening

Markets Under Pressure; Eyes on FOMC, Bernanke

Quote of the day: “I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies.” ~ Thomas Jefferson

Good morning. The euro continued to decline, reaching a session low at $1.3608 before rallying on rumors that Greek referendum will be canceled. Fed’s Bernanke speech and the FOMC rate decision are today’s key events of the economic calendar, so the market will probably stay rather quiet until later today.

EURUSD

current consolidation near support zone after a fast decline suggests that a correction is likely – therefore, keep an eye on 1.3850-1.3900 if EUR recovers, that’s where first resistance is seen

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 11-2-2011

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 11-2-2011

AUDNZD

Continue reading

Dollar Recovering On Risk-Off Trade; Eyes on Bernanke

Quote of the day:“Doubt whom you will, but never yourself.” ~ Christine Bovee

Good morning. The euro changed course and declined after reaching a daily high at $1.3910 yesterday, but remains slightly bullish on short-term basis as recent recovery was quite strong. The German Zew and Bernanke’s speech later today are the most important events of the FX Calendar

EURUSD

As seen below – the pair is still above support formed around 1.3700 where it bounced last week, but it feels quite heavy so it seems a good idea to consider bearish opportunities while it holds below 1.3830/50 – either selling on a minor rally to 1.38 or on a break below 1.37

Euro vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 10-18-2011

Euro vs US Dollar Chart 4hrs 10-18-2011

Euro COT

According to latest COT data, there’s not a big change in short contracts yet, despite current recovery to 1.39

Euro COT 10-18-2011

Euro COT 10-18-2011

AUDJPY

AUDJPY – the main risk barometer is following the EUR right now on more euro-zone worries. Next support zone is around 76.50 Continue reading

Dollar’s Correction Continues, Reversal Patterns Still Valid

Quote of the day: “Never trouble another for what you can do for yourself.” ~ Thomas Jefferson

Good morning. The dollar pulled back yesterday, forming several reversal signals across the board as everything is correlated these days. Yesterday’s setups are still in play although most of them don’t look as good as I wanted yet, but it’s really worth keeping an eye on them. Some of you, regular readers, might already know that I’m not a fan of correlations because you’re likely to put all eggs in same basket no matter how many currency pairs your trading platforms provides. Some would argue that there’s an advantage when the market goes your way, so if you are into several highly correlated trades, you would make a good profit. In theory yes, but in practice – as much as it might sound like Murphy’s Law – things are likely to turn bad more often than good if you put several/all eggs in the same basket. So the best option would be, in my opinion, to focus only on the best setups although there are several (almost) identical when you scan the charts, eventually increase the position sizes to reflect the level of confidence you have at that time, instead of opening several trades in different highly correlated pairs. Bernanke will speak in Cleveland later today – this being the most important event of the economic calendar

Now let’s take a look at today’s charts of interest:

EURUSD

Although the market is getting some relief, the euro remains very fragile and keep in mind that current EURUSD recovery is caused by other assets appreciating against the dollar, thus dollar losing ground – EURUSD strengthening. As you can see in the hourly chart below, the support zone around 1.3550 is currently being tested and the pair will remain slightly bullish on short term basis as long as the said level holds. Selling on the potential break below is an option to consider.

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Hourly 9-28-2011

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Hourly 9-28-2011

And here is the euro index chart – just be aware what you’re doing and what to expect if you’re planning to buy dips

Euro Index Chart Daily 9-28-2011

Euro Index Chart Daily 9-28-2011

and the other bad apple dollar index, which looks much better than the euro these days (at least on a short term perspective)

Dollar Index Chart Daily 9-28-2011

Dollar Index Chart Daily 9-28-2011

AUDUSD

Continue reading