Tag Archives: CADJPY

Thursday Charts

Good morning. The euro recovered across the board but pulled back against the dollar yesterday, so the question now is whether current decline is corrective or not. Let’s take a look at a few interesting charts

EURUSD

Yesterday’s decline suggests that Euro’s recovery is corrective. See the daily chart below.

Market sentiment: intraday – bearish, short-term – slightly bullish
Potential trade strategy: to sell on rally to 1.3100, stop above 1.3170, target at 1.2850

EURUSD daily 4-18-2013

EURUSD daily 4-18-2013

Here’s the 4-hrs chart, where I highlighted the dynamic resistance range formed by the moving average lines. As long as it holds below 1.31, downside is favored  Continue reading

Euro Weakens on Italy Downgrade; Gap Not Filled

Quote of the day:“The secret of getting things done is to act” ~ Dante Alighieri

Good morning. S&P’s downgrade of Italy derailed the gap fill and the euro is retesting yesterday’s low around $1.3600 while writing this. Things are likely to remain ugly for the eurozone in my opinion (and everyone’s except some politicians or few people believing in fairy tales), therefore my plan is either to sell on potential / short-lived rallies or more weakness such as a breakdown below last week’s open. As long as we hold below 1.39-1.40 former support zone, I really don’t see any reason to buy dips – maybe in other crosses, as there are a few currencies outperformed by the EUR these days. German Zew is the most important event in today’s economic calendar. Now let’s see what are some of the interesting charts today

EURUSD

Maybe 1.38 is a bit too far away, so it’s a good idea to keep an eye on the interim resistance around 1.3700 (yesterday’s top – see hourly chart below). Selling in that resistance zone is a plan to consider

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 9-20-2011

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Daily 9-20-2011

and the hourly chart:

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Hourly 9-20-2011

Euro Vs US Dollar Chart Hourly 9-20-2011

EURGBP

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Euro Resumes Decline

Quote of the day:“We learn from history that we learn nothing from history” ~ George Bernard Shaw

Good morning. Last week’s euro recovery was indeed corrective and the single currency is trading lower across the board, gapping down over 100 points over the weekend. Short-term sentiment is once again bearish and downside pressure is likely to remain high as Greece struggles to avoid default.

Here are some of the charts worth your attention this week:

EURUSD

There’s a chance that the gap will be filled, therefore keeping an eye on the 1.3800 level is a good idea.

Euro vs US Dollar Chart Daily 9-19-2011

Euro vs US Dollar Chart Daily 9-19-2011

According to COT data, everyone and his dog is, once again, short EUR:

COT Euro 9-19-2011

COT Euro 9-19-2011

EURGBP

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Dollar softer ahead of G-20 Summit in Seoul

Quote of the day: All generalizations are bad. – R.H. Grenier

EURUSD

Trading strategy: long at 1.3825, stop at 1.3755, 1st objective at 1.3875, 2nd objective at 1.3975

Although downside pressure is still high, support at 1.37 formed by October’s bottom held, and the dollar is a bit softer today, ahead of G20 Summit in Seoul – on speculation China will allow the Yuan to rise. The G20 Summit in Seoul is the key event this week and these two days could be interesting as the ‘Currency war’ is the main theme. Looking at yesterday’s bounce off support at 1.3700 – we might be dealing with a reversal pattern. However, the recovery is not convincing yet but it’s normal not to see any major reactions ahead of G20. Building long positions from current region with tight stops on break below 1.37 is worth considering. However, break above 1.4050 is required to signal the end of current corrective cycle. Current exchange rate is 1.3780 @06:50 GMT

Support: 1.3700, 1.3650 and 1.3600
Resistance: 1.3800/20, 1.3850, 1.3900 and 1.400/50
Market sentiment: long term – mixed, medium term – bullish, short term – bearish, intraday – slightly bullish

EURUSD daily chart 11-11-2010
EURUSD daily chart 11-11-2010
EURUSD 4hrs chart 11-11-2010
EURUSD 4hrs chart 11-11-2010

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Euro down as debt worries resurface

Quote of the day: Things do not change; we change. – Henry David

EURUSD

Trading strategy: standing aside

The euro trades down around last week’s open price as eurozone debt worries resurface. Dollar’s short covering post QE2 announcement is also helping the buck to gain some ground – recovering 360 points in the last two days. Looking at the 4-hrs chart – we can see that a temporary support is found around 1.3940/50 at time of writing – formed by the 61.8% fib retracement value of last 2 weeks upward swing, from 1.3730 to 1.4280. While this support level holds, a recovery is likely and 1.4050 shouldn’t provide such a strong barrier, although the said level was a pain for the bulls in October. Short-term sentiment is mixed, both technically and fundamentally. Well, if you really look to short the dollar – it’s better to look at some better performing currencies such as the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen or the AU & NZ dollars. Current exchange rate is 1.3955 @06:40 GMT

Support: 1.3950, 1.3900 and 1.3800
Resistance: 1.400, 1.4050 and 1.4150
Market sentiment: long term – mixed, medium term – bullish, short term – mixed, intra-day – bearish

EURUSD 4hrs chart 11-8-2010
EURUSD 4hrs chart 11-8-2010

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Risk on

Quote of the day: The best way to appreciate your job is to imagine yourself without one. – Oscar Wilde

EURUSD

Trading strategy: long at 1.4160 on potential pullback, stop at 1.4090 (0.5% risk), 1st objective at 1.4210, 2nd objective at 1.4260

Another resistance point has been breached yesterday as the euro rallied past 1.4150/60 to as high as $1.4280 before pulling back 1 big figure, to 1.4185 at time of writing. Intra-day sentiment is bearish and current pullback will probably continue, bringing former resistance lines in focus. However, change in short-term’s sentiment is unlikely as I doubt the dollar will strengthen near $1.400 or below. Since today is the first Friday this month, the key data release in the economic calendar is the NFP, followed by Bernanke’s speech. Current exchange rate is 1.4205 @06:43 GMT

Support: 1.4150/60, 1.4100, 1.4050, 1.3990/00 and 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4280/00 and 1.4400
Market sentiment: long term – mixed, medium term – bullish, short term – bullish, intra-day – bearish

EURUSD 4hrs chart 11-5-2010
EURUSD 4hrs chart 11-5-2010

More trading setups

Gold

XAUUSD 4hrs chart 11-5-2010
XAUUSD 4hrs chart 11-5-2010

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Dollar continues to slide on QE2 announcement

Quote of the day: The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. – John Maynard Keynes

EURUSD

Trading strategy: long at 1.4050 on potential pullback, stop at 1.3980(0.5% risk), 1st objective at 1.4100, 2nd objective at 1.4200.

Now that the “big day” has come and gone, we know that the Fed announced to purchase an additional $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the 2nd quarter of 2011. The dollar collapsed on the news and the euro rallied to almost $1.4200, from 14050, in a matter of minutes. As said yesterday, buying on break above 1.4050 would have been a good plan. Today’s ECB rate decision is also a major event in the economic calendar along with US Initial Jobless Claims and Nonfarm Productivity. Resistance around 1.4160 is still intact but the ‘good news’ for the bulls is that former resistance at 1.4050 should now provide support if price pulls back from current trading levels – at 1.4120. In case of break higher past 1.4160 barrier, next objective comes at 1.4300 – yearly open. Current exchange rate is 1.4123 @06:33 GMT

Support: 1.4050, 1.3990/00, 1.3900, 1.3850/60 and 1.3800
Resistance: 1.4150/60, 1.4170/00 and 1.4300
Market sentiment: long term – mixed, medium term – bullish, short term – bullish, intra-day – bullish

EURUSD 4hrs chart 11-4-2010
EURUSD 4hrs chart 11-4-2010

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The quiet breakout before the storm

Smooth seas do not make skillful sailors. – African Proverb

Greetings. There’s only one day left until the Fed will (as expected) resume the program of assets purchases, trying to support the economic recovery. Current question is not “Will the Fed announce QE2?” but rather “How much money will the Fed print inject into the economy?” According to Bloomberg’s Survey – it could be around $500 billion. With (or without) RBA’s “help” – the EUR is well bid against the buck today, flirting with 1.4050 at time of writing. Layered all the way to 1.4150, resistance points starting at 1.4050 were good selling levels in the last 4 weeks. However, judging by the daily charts, it’s obvious enough that we were not dealing with any (major) trend reversal patterns in October, as the whole consolidation was normal, after such a strong recovery started in June; resumed in late August – early September, after retracing half of previous gains. It is also obvious that the QE2 announcement is already priced in, but the beauty of this market is that you never know for sure how it will digest the news. I’m sure you already know how, for instance, those NFP reports are – when the number comes close to your expectation/prediction – but the market reaction is totally different than you expected, so you stare at the charts saying “wait! WHAT?!”. Never underestimate the unpredictable path of the most liquid and volatile market… it hurts.

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Technically speaking – one of the important upside barriers has been taken out today, around $1.400. The said resistance point is formed by connecting previous 3 lower highs of the 4-hrs chart, as seen in the chart below.

EURUSD 4hrs chart 11-2-2010
EURUSD 4hrs chart 11-2-2010

I kept my eyes on such breakout setups in the last weeks, like a hawk. They are some of my favorites and I reckon I feel like a fish in the water when the reasons are solid to buy high or sell low. Yes, that’s right – the opposite to buying dips and selling high. What’s “high” in uptrends? Or, what about “dips” in strong downtrends? Continue reading

Daily analysis and trading strategies 8-19-10

EURUSD

Trading strategy: standing aside

Another failed attempt to break above 1.2900 occurred yesterday although the euro rallied to as high as 1.2920 before weakening throughout the US trading session. The appreciation to 1.2920 was a result of following the Pound which rallied coming behind the BoE minutes. As I said yesterday – I’d prefer a bullish confirmation which has yet to be seen and intra-day spikes few pips above 1.2900 are not valid confirmations on a short-term basis. Meanwhile, 1.2740/50 which is an important support level is not far from current market levels, so we should keep an eye on it – if 1.2780/00 fails. Current exchange rate is 1.2808 @06:09 GMT

Support: 1.2780/00, 1.2740, 1.2600 and 1.2500
Resistance: 1.2900/20, 1.3000, 1.3100 and 1.3250
Market sentiment: long term – bearish, medium term – slightly bullish, short term – slightly bearish, intra-day – bearish

EURUSD 4hrs chart 8-19-2010
EURUSD 4hrs chart 8-19-2010

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Daily analysis and trading strategies 8-6-10

EURUSD

Trading strategy: standing aside

The euro continues to trade sideways against the dollar as yesterday’s attempt to stabilize into the 1.32 region was short-lived, but the upside remains favored while we don’t see a retreat toward 1.3100. Short-term sentiment is bullish but the 4-hrs studies are showing signs of uptrend weakness after testing 1.3250 3 days ago. The NFP data release is today’s most important event in the economic calendar and it is widely expected to print around -70k and unemployment rate probably edge up to 9.6%. Buying dips or on break higher seem the safer bets for now. Current exchange rate is 1.3188 @06:15 GMT

Support: 1.3100/20, 1.2970/00 and 1.2900
Resistance: 1.3250/90, 1.3400 and 1.3500
Market sentiment: long term – bearish, medium term – slightly bullish, short term – bullish, intra-day – bullish

EURUSD 4hrs chart 8-6-2010
EURUSD 4hrs chart 8-6-2010

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